The approach I used was one of an arithmetic gradient. The idea is
that a constant growth rate is applied to each period within a
particular year, with the growth rate being recalculated for each
year. Month 1 = 1G, Month 2 = 2G,... Month 12 = 12G.
For Year 1, because we are starting from 0 in Month 0, the gradient =
120/78 or 1.538. Then, to determine the value for each month in Year
1, simply multiply the number of the month by the gradient factor.
Month 1 is 1.538, Month 2 is 3.077,...Month 12 is 18.462.
Now, because we want Year 2 to reflect the last value in Year 1 in its
first month, the gradient formula = [240 - (12*18.462)]/78 or 0.2367.
Then, to determine the value for each month in Year 2, multiply the
number of the month by 18.462 and add the number of the month
multiplied by the new gradient factor to obtain the value.
The procedure we used to determine the values for the months in Year 2
can be applied to subsequent years as well.
If you would like the first month in Year 1 to be locked at a
particular value to start with (such as 3), you can use the formula
[120 - (12*3)]/66 and start with the starting value of 3 in Month 1.
You can of course replace the 120 and 240 with any value you like as
well.
Sincerely,
Wonko |
Clarification of Answer by
wonko-ga
on
18 Nov 2004 09:14 PST
The 78 comes from summing the numbers 1 to 12. Similarly, the number
becomes 66 if you are locking the first period because the remaining
months only sum the numbers 1 to 11.
It is a violation of the Google Answers Terms of Service for
researchers to contact customers via e-mail. This is not a problem,
however. I have uploaded the spreadsheet I used to calculate the
results I provided earlier to the following address, where it is
available for download:
http://68.15.21.151/uploads/researchers/Gradient_Formula.xls. Since
Google Answers is available to the public, I suggest you remove your
e-mail address to avoid receiving spam and other unwanted
communications.
I think the spreadsheet will greatly aid you in understanding what is
going on, but please request clarification if needed.
Sincerely,
Wonko
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