Thursday, November 18, 2004 

Dollar rises, gold falls in Europe ........ 

LONDON - The euro rose to a new high against the dollar for the second
straight day in European trading Thursday as investors showed they
remain concerned about the state of the U.S. economy. Gold prices
fell.

The euro traded as high as $1.3074, breaking the previous day's high
of $1.3047, before falling back to $1.2993 in European trading. Later,
in midday trading in New York, the euro was quoted at $1.2977.

SOURCE:
http://www.freep.com/news/latestnews/pm1442_20041118.htm

Please post Comments ... The Researcher who gets the nearest to the
closing price on 17 December 2004 will be invited to post an answer.

---

Clarification of Question by probonopublico-ga on 18 Nov 2004 21:57 PST

We bow to Omni, the acknowledged financial wizard, and accept his wise
advice to use the Wall Street Journal Forex page for our closing
price:

http://online.wsj.com/documents/mktindex.htm?forextab.htm

Of course, if the Wall Street Journal should not survive the widely
predicted plunge then Carte Blanche or some other ice cream will have
to do.

Please be aware that offensive expressions like 'Milton Friedman' may
get edited out.

---

Clarification of Question by probonopublico-ga on 15 Dec 2004 02:24 PST

This was the status on Tuesday Dec 15:

In late trading in New York, the 12-nation European currency was
quoted at $1.3307, just a bit lower than Monday's $1.3314.

Not much longer to go ...

---

Clarification of Question by probonopublico-ga on 15 Dec 2004 02:29 PST

I now declare this to be a 2 horse race between Omni and Mathtalk.

Please place your bets on one of these two ...

Of course, it could be also be a draw ...

---

Clarification of Question by probonopublico-ga on 15 Dec 2004 02:34 PST

Entre nous, I am desolated that the mighty Hailstorm-ga has not
favoured us with his presence.

Alas, it is now too late.

But I sincerely hope that all is well with our financial guru.

Thanks, probonopublico-ga, for your gracious patronage of Google
Answers.  I've been interested in this topic because US economic
growth is usually measured in dollars, and one has to wonder what kind
of growth it is when the yardstick is shrinking.

The issue was in doubt until the last hour.  By some accounts many of
the short positions in dollars, which tend to support the dollar by
betting against it, had been closed out by midday Friday, and the
weakening trend resumed:

[Dollar Falters in Thin Holiday Trading]
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=7129045

Late Thursday the euro had been trading in New York at $1.3249.  The
dollar weakened on Friday; the figures vary by source.  According to
this account from the Associated Press, by late Friday the market was
trading at $1.3287:

[Dollar Drops Slightly After Positive Inflation Report]
http://www.theday.com/eng/web/news/re.aspx?re=30F7019E-33F9-4366-904F-ED6C2B53D2E8

The relatively high US inflation report was considered positive news
for the dollar, as it tends to commit the Fed to further interest rate
increases.  But while the year over year CPI number at 3.5% was
highest since May, 2001, the monthly number for November at 0.2% was
below October's figure:

[All Eyes on the Inflation Watch]
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/dec2004/nf20041217_7658_db035.htm

regards, mathtalk-ga

Wow, Mathtalk.

Until you revealed your secrets I was not aware whether it was pure
Math or just Talk.

But now that you have talked me through it, I will never listen to
that Hailstorm again.

Many thanks!

Bryan

I realize the foolishness of posting first, but the truth has to out sometime.

$1.3477

My 2 cents (for large 2).

--mathtalk-ga

neither will be worth a fraction of a handful of cowrie shells . . .


:-)

ts

... and the Pound will be worth more than both of them!

Mike

..seperately!

$1.2953 - about a 95% chance I'd say ;-)

Bryan --

Bathrocks is playing the "Random Walk Down Wall Street" effect and
guessing that the dollar will be in the same place it is today.

But being UChicago educated (All Hail, Milton Friedman!) and observing
a 1% per month decline in the dollar since the onset of the Iraqi War,
I'll predict $1.3093 or a decline of another 1% in the next month. 
It's an inter-regnum period and it could even be worse than that . . .

Now we should agree upon an authority and not just the bad rates that
you get quoted by Carte Bleu.  I'd suggest the Wall Street Journal
Forex page:
http://online.wsj.com/documents/mktindex.htm?forextab.htm

Ta tat and cheerio and all that!

Omnivorous-GA

The Dollar will merge with the Euro and the new currency would be called Duro.

if omni is right, and the trend continues, in eight years the dollar
will be worth nada

that's zero with the rim removed!

better start collecting yer cowrie shells!

ts

By revealing details of the secret talks on the upcoming 'merger' of
the Euro and the Dollar, Winsplit01 has been unforgiveably indiscreet.

However, for the record, the most favoured name is the 'Eurod'. 

The only dissenter is France which prefers the 'Chirac'.

It is understood that the heads of George W Bush and Tony Blair will
appear on the new notes, suitably severed, alongside Lydia Lopokova,
the famous Russian Ballerina, whose economic credentials will be
immediately appreciated by all without any further comment from me.

Today's numbers make me look like an optimist:
http://online.wsj.com/page/0,,2_0032,00.html?mod=2_0032

timespacette--

if the dollar declines by 1% per month for 96 months, it drops to
.99^96 or 38% of its initial value.  Maybe the rim should go back on.

. . . which explains why I should never even pretend to be a financial
planner . . .

I get profoundly dyslexic whenever I get anywhere near numerical equations

(I find the best tack is to immediately change the subject:
see:  http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=431724)

so you're telling me that that rim will be worth 38 cents on the dollar?

isn't that still worth a look at the market in cowrie shells?

ts

Looks like it's heading upwards..!

Bathrocks --

$1.32480 at this writing and that's good news?

Ok, scrub that! - got my numbers/head the wrong way round. Hmm. 

Anyhow, there's still stime for it to bounce back to the target value
of $1.2953 by 17th Dec :-)

Mathtalk looks like he's ahead so far:
"At midday in Europe Thursday, the dollar was trading at $1.3329
against the euro, down from its earlier high."

Hey, Omni

Many thanks for the progress reports.

As a reward, I'll let you have a trip in my BalloonyCraft (TM) ...

I assume that you do have a Pilot's Licence?

All the Best

Bryan

Bryan --

Yes I do.  But I don't have an Airship rating (and I'm a bit shy about
Experimental category aircraft).  Perhaps we'll have to fly it
someplace that the aviation rules are looser?

Best regards,

O.

Current value (www.exchangerate.com):              $1.343732
Mathtalk's prediction with just over a week to go: $1.3477

And the new GA question is:
"How is mathtalk controlling the global currency market with only a $5 incentive?"

Now he only has to move it by four tenths of a cent. 

99

It's been a photo-finish with omni, so probonopublico-ga's horse race
analogy was apt.

mathtalk's number:  $1.3477 \
                             > $1.3285 (mean)
omnivorous' number: $1.3093 /

regards, mathtalk-ga

Do currency markets ever close? (I'm not being facetious -- it seems
that it's the one item that trades 'round the clock.)

Here's the Reuters Dec. 17 4 p.m. price, which is what the WSJ Forex
page has posted: 1.3289.  It appears that mathtalk-ga has won by
$0.0004 or 4/10s of a mill (a mill be 0.1 cents).

That was pretty exciting!  Let's try it again!

Best regards,

O.

Omni

You are a thorough gentleman!

Having effectively conceded to the Mighty Mathtalk, I now invite Mathy
to post an asnwer, but please be quick or I shall feel obliged to
spend another 50 cents, which I can ill afford due to excesses of
generosity this Holiday Session.

Phew! I don't know what I would have done if Omni had not fallen on his sword.