Honestly, if the Playstation 3 comes out and is relatively low priced,
you can expect Blu-Ray to stick around for the long haul.
Reason why? DVDs and players were still fairly expensive items back
around 2000...but when the PS2 arrived, families were able to not only
get a game system...but also the newest high tech video player. So,
killing two birds with one stone, DVD sales skyrocketed in the next
couple of years and I think a lot of it had to do with it being a part
of the mega-popular PS2 system.
Now am I saying Blu-Ray will outright win if the PS3 retails for say,
$399 or $499? Absolutely NOT.
Honestly, I'd be surprised if either format is chosen in the next few
years. You see, the big selling point of these new formats is that
they present video in HIGH DEFINITION. Awesome, huh? Harsh reality is
that in order to view Hi-Def content, you need a Hi-Def monitor or TV.
And people, HDTVs are NOT cheap. The cheapest HDTV sets I've seen are
around $400...and they are not very good quality...they're blurry and
usually from some no-name brand. If you want a decent HDTV, expect to
spend at LEAST $700. And if you want the most out of your new video
format, expect to spend THOUSANDS for a set. Oh, and I'm talking about
the CRT displays (the sets that weigh two tons and are 3 feet deep)
NOT the 4 inch thick ones you see on TV. If you want a great, quality
HDTV LCD or Plasma monitor, expect to spend upwards of $3,000.
Until digital signals are absolutely required by the government in
2009, don't expect HDTVs to get cheaper anytime soon (up to that
point, TV manufacturers don't have to include anything Hi-Def in their
products unless they want to). The average consumer won't be able to
afford the next generation of video formats until probably 2012 or
2015 I'm guessing.
You won't be seeing a sub $100 Blu-Ray or HD-DVD player in the next
five years, I can guarantee that.
Oh, and let's not forget what hurdle the very idea of a new video
format is facing anyways.
In the 90s, DVDs WERE a great step forward. They were smaller and
cheaper than Laserdiscs, provided much better video quality than Video
CDs and best of all, didn't wear out like VHS tapes. That wasn't a
small step for video advancement, that was a giant leap. It took
forever for people to grab ahold of it though and most consumers
didn't make the switch until they either A) Got a DVD drive in their
computer, B) Bought a PS2 or C) DVD Player prices dropped below $100.
I remember working at K-Mart from 2000-2004 inbetween my time at
college and I can't tell you how many people hated that VHS was being
phased out. People were actually angry that their whole library of VHS
tapes were being basically trashed and that they'd have no choice but
to start buying the new-shiny-disc-DVD-thingees. I can't blame them
for being upset. Some people spent small fortunes on video libraries
from the 80s to the 90s and nowadays, if you can even find a new movie
on VHS, it usually costs more than a DVD! Oh, and let's not
forget...movie studios are pretty much stuck making DVD versions of
all their movies through the rest of this decade --- they simply have
too big of an installed base of DVD owners to abandon in a second!
Problem is, I don't see that happening with Blu-Ray or HD-DVD. Sure,
people will love the sharpness and clarity HDTVs show when displaying
Hi-Def content...but keep in mind that the average viewer hasn't even
watched a DVD on a TV by hooking it up using COMPONENT cables instead
of the standard Red, Yellow & White Composite cables. THAT, MY FRIEND,
is a huge leap in picture quality. And component cables come on most
higher end standard TVs (which means you can get a great new component
ready TV for $350-450) and standard on most DVD players (even the ones
that cost $50!).
Also, DVDs can produce sound in 5.1 surround...a setup MOST consumers
STILL don't have to this day. So if anything, over the next few years
see how companies promote all these extra "multimedia" expansion
outlets instead of how Blu-Ray or HD-DVD will win over the masses.
MOST people don't like to repurchase expensive items in their
homes...and if MOST people don't want something, that something will
never catch on and will ultimately fail.
The industry is just pushing and pushing for this new format (whether
it be HD-DVD or Blu-Ray) to deter piracy and make people "rebuild"
their libraries again...BUT THEY ARE DOING IT ABOUT FIVE YEARS TOO
SOON!
People have to SEE High-Definition content before they are wowed by
it...and right now, only rich people or tech enthusiasts have
HDTVs...and like I said, until HDTVs and Hi-Def content are mandatory
in 2009, don't expect the prices to fall down anytime soon...and of
course, that means people won't be buying ANYTHING Hi-Def anytime soon
EITHER!
So yes, if you want to beat the pack and choose the probably winner,
go with Blu-Ray if the PS3 is reasonable priced. If it's too much
though (anything above $500), think again because it's another Betamax
with an over confident Sony.
Your best bet is to wait a year and by then the second generation
players should be coming out and then prices will drop a bit a better
idea of the "winner" will be had. Will the winner be around in 2012
when the average Joes and Janes decide to hop on the bandwagon? Yes.
But will you be paying a premium until then just to have a cool new
gadget that like 4 other people will own and use regularly? Oh yeah. |
