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Subject:
Investment
Category: Business and Money > Finance Asked by: baznichols-ga List Price: $5.00 |
Posted:
18 Jan 2006 01:40 PST
Expires: 18 Jan 2006 11:21 PST Question ID: 434914 |
does a more risky stock necessarily ean a higher return on average than a less risky one? |
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There is no answer at this time. |
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Subject:
Re: Investment
From: omnivorous-ga on 18 Jan 2006 05:16 PST |
Baznichols -- No. Performance of individual stocks cannot be predicted. Motley Fool, an investment site, has had lots of fun analyzing a small group of poor performers in "Dogs of the Dow" and "Pigs of the Dow." What this year's "pigs" show is that individual securities are too variable to predict returns: Motley Fool "Pigs of the Dow Get Slaughtered" (Durrell, Jan. 13, 2006) http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2006/commentary06011309.htm However, Modern Portfolio Theory says that a group or portfolio of risky stocks -- if properly diversified -- will return a higher average return. It also says that managers within those higher risk corporations should be investing in higher risk/higher return projects and not putting the company's money in "safe" investments like real estate: Wikipedia "Modern Portfolio Theory" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Portfolio_Theory Of course, Motley Fool's group of "dogs" and "pigs" are a portfolio. But they're small portfolios, dominated by weak performance of one or two stocks. It's a generally accepted rule-of-thumb that about 10 stocks give an investor good statistical diversification. For further research, I might suggest the following Google search strategy: "modern portfolio theory" "individual stocks" "modern portfolio theory" individual stocks Best regards, Omnivorous-GA |
Subject:
Re: Investment
From: wolf9227-ga on 18 Jan 2006 10:14 PST |
I would answer that in general yes. (don't listen to that last guy) You have to define risk in some way, and a lot of finance people do that with beta. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/beta.asp A stock that has a beta of 2 is suppose to be twice as volatile as the market. So if the market goes up 10% one year, the stock will go up 20%. However, the converse for this stock is also true, when the market tanks, the stock double-tanks. But since you can count on the markets generating positive returns over the long haul, a portfolio of higher beta stocks should generate even higher returns. Most financial planners and investment advisors structure their recommended portfolio allocations based on this -- younger people get risker portfolios (that is more stocks and with higher betas) and older people get safer portfolios (less stocks, lower beta stocks, and more bonds). |
Subject:
Re: Investment
From: omnivorous-ga on 18 Jan 2006 10:40 PST |
Baznichols -- While Wolf-GA is correct to introduce the concept of beta, they've flunked finance 101. Much of the answer here depends on interpreting "higher return on average". Will a mix of stocks produce a higher return "on average"? Yes, if properly diversified -- but only because you've lumped it in with others of similar risk category. But company-specific risks are different from systematic risks. Beta gives you a way to manage systematic risk; indeed that's what it measures: http://www.12manage.com/methods_capm.html You can diversify it and manage it. You can't manage company-specific risk (though bond ratings, Value Line and others try to do it). So, will a risky stock return more than a less risky one? No way to tell. In fact, if your investments are all in "similar beta" companies in a declining industry, returns will be lower than average. Best regards, Omnivorous-GA |
Subject:
Re: Investment
From: wolf9227-ga on 18 Jan 2006 11:05 PST |
I think this guy I'm jarring with may have taken Finance 101 but has yet to set up his first Ameritrade account. "You can't manage company-specific risk (though bond ratings, Value Line and others try to do it)." Options are a tool to do that. "So, will a risky stock return more than a less risky one? No way to tell." This also cannot be proven. There are trading wizards out there who clean up in the markets -- academic research supports this. But I guarantee that you are not going to get any insight for $5, and certainly not from some know-it-all with a copy of his finance book on Google Answers. |
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