How many named storms were predicted by Dr. William Gray in May of
2002 for the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season? How many actually
occurred ?

Dear flinfl-ga,

On 31 May, 2002, William M. Gray, Professor, Department of Atmospheric
Science, Colorado State University made the following forecast for the
2002 hurricane season:

11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes. (This forecast
reduced early April's 2002 predictions of 12 named storms, 7
hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes).

and

"PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE OR MORE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5)
HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 63% (average for last century is 52%) 
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 42% (average for last
century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 35%
(average for last century is 30%)
4) Expected near-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean"

The full forecast can be found at
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2002/june2002/
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2002/press2002jun.html

Later examination of the forecasts for 2002
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2002/nov2002/

Other forecasts by his team can be found at
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/

The information for the 2002 season was as follows:
12 named storms, 4 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes.

1 Tropical Storm ARTHUR  14-19 JUL 
2 Tropical Storm BERTHA  4- 9 AUG 
3 Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL  5- 8 AUG 
4 Tropical Storm DOLLY  29 AUG- 4 SEP    
5 Tropical Storm EDOUARD  1- 6 SEP 
6 Tropical Storm FAY  5-11 SEP 
7 Hurricane GUSTAV  8-15 SEP  Category 2   
8 Tropical Storm HANNA  12-15 SEP 
9 Hurricane ISIDORE  14-27 SEP  Category 3   
10 Tropical Storm JOSEPHINE  17-19 SEP 
11 Hurricane KYLE  20 SEP-12 OCT Category 1   
12 Hurricane LILI  21 SEP- 4 OCT Category 4

Source   
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2002/index.html


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answerfinder

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