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Subject:
Probability of finding "The One'
Category: Relationships and Society > Relationships Asked by: commontheater-ga List Price: $10.00 |
Posted:
07 Feb 2006 11:31 PST
Expires: 09 Mar 2006 11:31 PST Question ID: 442706 |
I am writing a play and need to know (based on the current world population), assuming there is one soulmate for every person on the planet, what is the probability that you will find that one person? Please provide math completed to arrive at answer. |
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There is no answer at this time. |
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Subject:
Re: Probability of finding "The One'
From: thither-ga on 07 Feb 2006 12:26 PST |
Just take the amount of people you think the average person will meet in their lifetime and divide it by the world population (current estimates put it at almount 6.5 billion). Have a good day. |
Subject:
Re: Probability of finding "The One'
From: commontheater-ga on 07 Feb 2006 13:25 PST |
The only problem with that is that I have no clue how many people the average person meets in their lifetime. I don't even know where to find that information. |
Subject:
Re: Probability of finding "The One'
From: ansel001-ga on 07 Feb 2006 13:28 PST |
I would think that, for most people, their soul mate would share a common language and culture. So I don't think it would be equally likely my soul mate would be in Yemen vs the United States. |
Subject:
Re: Probability of finding "The One'
From: commontheater-ga on 07 Feb 2006 13:39 PST |
That is actually along the lines of what sparked my thoughts and led to this new work. I now have three friends of mine who met the person they consider to be their "soulmate" while abroad. One friend actually does not even speak the same language as their soulmate - yet when they met, and could not communicate verbally, they just enjoyed each other's company. They take care of each other and are very happy - but do not communicate the same way that most couples do. So it started me thinking about the probability of finding your soulmate on a planet over over One Billion. |
Subject:
Re: Probability of finding "The One'
From: alex101-ga on 07 Feb 2006 17:46 PST |
Assuming a Random Distribution of Soulmates, S (soulmate)= 1/6,591,078,000 (Pop. of Earth),for each encounter with another person, x how many people a person encounters (e) in a lifetime...or S = 1/6,591,078,000 x e However, the probability of recognizing that soulmate must be diminished by the cumulative factors that distract a person's attention (ex. weather, other people, time, etc.) If a person's ability to pay attention to others is diminished by an average of only 20% during the times of day during which they interact with people, then it's really S = (1/6,591,078,000 x e )x .8 or S = ((1/6,591,078,000 x e) x W/(365 x L) x 6,591,078,000/(P x L) x V x R)- B where S=Probability of meeting Soulmate e=People encounters in lifetime W=weather factor L=Life Expectancy P=People within eyesight in a day V=Vision accuity as % of normal R=Random unknowable chaos variable B=Preconceived notions which stimulate irrational aversion It's a wonder anybody finds anybody... |
Subject:
Re: Probability of finding "The One'
From: commontheater-ga on 07 Feb 2006 19:13 PST |
WOW! I love that equation. Alex, you're a huge help. Now I just have to figure out how many people the average person meets in their lifetime. That might be a different question for the board. Thanks everyone for your input. And Alex, I think I may actually put that entire equation right into the production. I think it would be fascinatingly mind boggling for the audience to actually see a mathematical representation of their changes of finding their soulmate. It is a wonder, isn't it.... |
Subject:
Re: Probability of finding "The One'
From: probonopublico-ga on 07 Feb 2006 22:22 PST |
It's absolutely inevitable! But who knows where or when? |
Subject:
Re: Probability of finding "The One'
From: jack_of_few_trades-ga on 08 Feb 2006 07:47 PST |
Do be aware that Alex's equation does not account for the fact that most people have a HUGE preference for 1 gender over the other (unless this gender bias is "irrational aversion" which I would have to argue against). So you may want to cut that total population in half for a normal person... or to a reasonable percentage (perhaps 60%) to account for the fact that a small portion of the population consider both genders to contain a possible soul mate. |
Subject:
Re: Probability of finding "The One'
From: commontheater-ga on 08 Feb 2006 11:08 PST |
Good point, jack-of-few. I guess that technically there would be a straight variation of the equation and a gay variation of the equation. Which then would have to influence the "number of people who see in a day" variable based on the % of gay or straight people who you see who do not qualify for your preference. Jeez - this question seemed so easy and straightforward when I thought of it. Though I appreciate all of your input as it is making the production more and more fascinating as the days go by. Keep the comments coming! And thank you!!! |
Subject:
Re: Probability of finding "The One'
From: dermeister-ga on 10 Feb 2006 07:23 PST |
Actually, the "gay" and "straight" equation would be the same, as both only have a preference for one gender. The equation would only vary for the "bi" population and only to the degree that they were indifferent to the gender of the soul mate. As the equation plainly shows, meeting your soul mate is a function of the people you meet. This explains why gay men are attracted to a career in the military; where else can you meet so many young single men who are physically fit? Your incidence of meeting men is much higher than in civilian life. |
Subject:
Re: Probability of finding "The One'
From: commontheater-ga on 10 Feb 2006 07:52 PST |
When I was thinking of a gay and straight variation - I was thinking more that even though gay people are attracted the same NUMBER of people as straight people, current statistics suggest that only 5-12% of the population (depending on the study) is gay. Thus, they immediately have a much smaller selection. Conversely, a straight guy is attracted to women, but only maybe 90% of the women he meets in his lifetime are straight. Do those sound like reasonable assumptions to make? |
Subject:
Re: Probability of finding "The One'
From: jack_of_few_trades-ga on 10 Feb 2006 08:25 PST |
Common, I think your % estimates are reasonable... but they don't account for the fact that gay people will have a higher tendancy to meet other gay people because: 1) they are more likely to seek out gay people 2) having gay friends will lead to introducing friends to gay friends It's not the case for everyone of course, but society has a tendancy to create homogeneous contacts. That'll be a hard factor to calculate. |
Subject:
Re: Probability of finding "The One'
From: commontheater-ga on 10 Feb 2006 09:06 PST |
You know what though - that's actually a good thing to mention. Right now, I'm envisioning having a sort of hyper profession start scribbling on a blackboard all of the equation - and as he starts simply, it will grow more and more complicated as he adds variable after variable. I think to have him frustratingly make that comment, jack, it would be a good way to drive the message home. Thanks! |
Subject:
Re: Probability of finding "The One'
From: megankerr-ga on 28 Feb 2006 12:56 PST |
Two things - firstly, you need to take into account 6 degrees of separation as we mostly meet people through networks. This dramatically increases the likelihood of meeting the one. It works on the principle that people know each other in small social networks, some members of which have further reaching connections. It's been proven for people within the States and people within the context of the internet (both, obviously, subgroups of total world population). More information can be found on http://www.deeperwants.com/cul1/homeworlds/journal/archives/000160.html. Secondly, to run your equation you will need to assign mathematical values to your variables. e=People encounters in lifetime At a given moment, most people know 250 people, though not necessarily on a first-name basis. (See http://working.canada.com/calgary/resources/advisors/story.html?s_id=%2BTa664bn1Ffls0uj9Ify23rXv1L2M7180MpmVrFWgNnwbB9JULHnpA%3D%3D) How fast these people change will depend on how much a person changes their town, job, and lifestyle, which varies a great deal. W=weather factor Does this need to be included? Hot summer days make for lazy conversations, rain makes for sharing umbrellas and lingering in coffee shops... L=Life Expectancy This varies for men and women, so depending on the sexuality of your characters you will need to adjust accordingly. It also varies dramatically between countries. As your soulmate could theoretically be from any country, you need to take an average. Averages for each country are available at http://geography.about.com/library/weekly/aa042000b.htm, and works out to 65. P=People within eyesight in a day This is repeating the number of people one meets. V=Vision accuity as % of normal Blind people also meet people and soulmates - unless you want to exclude them from the equation, it might be a good idea to exclude this one. R=Random unknowable chaos variable B=Preconceived notions which stimulate irrational aversion Impossible to set a mathematical value on this, but one might safely assume that anything as powerful as a soulmate will balance out 'irrational aversion'. |
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