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Q: Impact of secular bear market on individual stocks ( No Answer,   2 Comments )
Question  
Subject: Impact of secular bear market on individual stocks
Category: Business and Money > Economics
Asked by: valuegangsta-ga
List Price: $50.00
Posted: 27 Dec 2004 09:47 PST
Expires: 26 Jan 2005 09:47 PST
Question ID: 447784
I am interested to know what happens to the price of individual stocks
in the context of a secular bear market when the company in question
is growing earnings by (say) 30% or more YOY.

The reason I ask this question is I currently own stock in a company
whose business prospects look very attractive. I have reasonable
confidence that the company will continue to prosper over the next few
years. I also have reasonable confidence that the US stock market will
be revalued downwards over the next few years. The market has
currently priced my company at around 40 times earnings.

Owners of Dell and Microsoft (companies with very strong, growing
businesses) prospered using a buy-and-hold approach during the 80's
and the 90's. But this was during a secular bull market. What happened
to people who owned very strong businesses during the secular bear
market of (say) 1965-1982? Or to put it another way, does Warren
Buffett's philosophy ( which has generally made money for me, but I
have been an investor only for the last 10 years) of buying 'good'
companies at 'fair' prices and holding on to them for long periods
(10+ years) work in secular bear markets?

Would want to see an example of a company who performed consistently
(very high earnings growth) and stock price appreciated equally over
long periods of time (10+ years) during 1965-1982. Would want to see a
counterexample of a company who performed consistently (very high
earnings growth) but stock price went nowhere or down over long
periods of time (10+ years) during 1965-1982. Would appreciate any
insight as to why
valuation behaviour differed.
Answer  
There is no answer at this time.

Comments  
Subject: Re: Impact of secular bear market on individual stocks
From: nronronronro-ga on 27 Dec 2004 14:34 PST
 
Valuegangsta,

You own a company with a growth rate of 30% and a P/E of 40.  That
makes the PEG ratio 1.33.   That is *not* a deep value company. 
Unfortunately, the news gets worse.  Companies with high P/E's which
exceed their growth rates not only underperform in bull
markets----they get crushed in bear markets.

I recommend this book:  What Works On Wall Street.  O'Shaugnessy has
also written a number of articles on growth-versus-P/E.

Good luck!
ron
Subject: Re: Impact of secular bear market on individual stocks
From: valuegangsta-ga on 27 Dec 2004 14:45 PST
 
Hello ron 
Thanks for your comments. The said company I mention in my question
was trading at a p/e of about 16 when I bought it. After accounting
for cash ( the company has no debt), the company had a p/e of about
13. I currently have capital gains of over 100% on the stock. When I
bought it, the price met my criterion of a 'good' company at a 'fair'
price.

I am looking for empirical cases from a secular bear market -
illustrating what happened to share prices of companies that continued
to perform very well.

-
Valuegangsta

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