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| Subject:
GDP growth
Category: Miscellaneous Asked by: suejonez-ga List Price: $15.00 |
Posted:
21 Feb 2006 17:00 PST
Expires: 23 Mar 2006 17:00 PST Question ID: 448094 |
Economists often assert that, on average (but not necessarily in any given year), GDP growth is the sum of population growth and the growth of productivity. However, we all know that businesses and individuals borrow every year and increasing amounts every year. Borrowing is, by definition, always from the future. That is to say that the borrower will be able to consume less in the future because he will have to repay today's borrowing. It would seem, therefore, that borrowing should add to GDP growth. However, the population growth + productivity growth formula certainly seems to roughly equal GDP growth over time. How can this be explained? |
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| There is no answer at this time. |
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| Subject:
Re: GDP growth
From: canadianhelper-ga on 21 Feb 2006 17:21 PST |
The argument in favour of using GDP is not that it is a good indicator of standard of living, but rather that (all other things being equal) standard of living tends to increase when GDP per capita increases. This makes GDP a proxy for standard of living, rather than a direct measure of it. GDP is not 'the sum of population growth and the growth of productivity', it is: the total value of final goods and services produced within a country's borders in a year and does not measure population growth (unless you take the next step and divide it by population). Borrowing does not add to GDP because it is merely a transfer within the system between individuals in the system. It is nuetral. These interest charges would be part of GDP if using the income approach. Can you point to examples of "However, the population growth + productivity growth formula certainly seems to roughly equal GDP growth over time." so we can get a clearer picture of the phenomenon you are talking about. |
| Subject:
Re: GDP growth
From: jack_of_few_trades-ga on 22 Feb 2006 06:05 PST |
Sue, As Canadian pointed out, GDP is not directly influenced by borrowing. Borrowing does not produce nor does it hinder production by itself. However, borrowing may (and probably does) stimulate people to purchase more... which in turn stimulates producers to produce more, this extra production is an increase in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) since there is more Product being created. Using this same logic, when people pay back their loans more than they are borrowing, this will stimulate them to purchase less and therefore producers will be stimulated to produce less. This lower production will decrease GDP. So, although borrowing doesn't directly affect GDP, you can see how it does have some influence indirectly. Canadian, "However, the population growth + productivity growth formula certainly seems to roughly equal GDP growth over time." This is simply what is the case assuming that Sue is referring to per capita growth (which i think is a fine assumption). An example (as requested): 100 people in the population GDP $1000 If the population growth rate is 2% per year then in 10 years the population will be 122. If GDP in 10 years has risen to $1500, then you can see that $220 of that was due to the increased population (GDP per capita would be the same as before if GDP had only risen $220). This leaves $280 as the productivity growth over that 10 years. This equates to about a 2.5% annual growth rate per capita. Another note, the borrowing does not have to be internal the the economy... it could be (and very often is) a temporary money transfer outside of the country. |
| Subject:
Re: GDP growth
From: ka42-ga on 22 Feb 2006 22:20 PST |
GDP is the total value of all the goods and services produced with in a country in a particular year. Population only affects GDP numbers in the sense that more people normally means more production and consumption. National Income in a country is often measured in the simplest form by: C + I + G + (X-M) C=consumer spending, I= Investment, G= Government Spending, X=Exports, M (Imports) National Income per Capita (which is what seems that you are interested in) is the same formula as above divided by the national population. If the economy doesn't grow "faster" than the rate of population growth then effectively GDP per capita or National Income per capita is decreasing, or the standard of living is decreasing. Going into debt to finance spending in the longer term often affects "I"as less savings are available in the future to be converted into Investment. |
| Subject:
Re: GDP growth
From: ka42-ga on 22 Feb 2006 22:37 PST |
I missed my final point. When you borrow in the short term, the money doesn't disappear out of the economy. If the borrower used that money to invest instead of spend, and the investment was successful, it doesn't mean the busines will spend less over time. If you borrow and pay interest, the person or company that is earning the interest earns that interest as income, and he either spends it or saves it. Income is not counted in the formula I presented above (because the model I used was the expenditure model). The spending or investment of that borrowed money is counted as an increase to the GDP. Now obviously this whole model assumes that the borrowed money is an injection into the economy from "unproductive" sources like savings accounts or investment funds. Population Growth and Productivity Growth are things that both add to the net National Income. By more people being born, doesn't make the economy more productive. Here you will need to clarify what you mean by your last sentence |
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