Hi bendini,
I think everything you need can be found on the Energy Information
Administration (EIA) "Official Energy Statistics from the U.S.
Government" website, which is just chock-a-block full of all kinds of
data and analysis. There you will find Forecasts & Analyses,
Historical Data Overview, This Week in Petroleum, Crude Spot Prices,
Retail Gasoline Prices, etc, etc. I've copied and pasted some relevant
sections below, but I'm afraid you're going to have to click on the
links and study the studies to try and get a handle on petroleum
pricing. After all is said and done, the answer may come down to the
following two quotes:
*Since it usually takes at least a week to start seeing changes in
spot prices reflected at the pump, and as many as 4 weeks to see the
bulk of the change reflected in retail prices, it appears that
consumers can look forward to a further decline in retail prices for
the next couple of weeks.
However, should spot prices start rising again before the retail
prices reflect the full magnitude of the current spot price decline,
the drop in retail prices could be halted and pump prices could begin
to rise again.*
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp
*The manner in which prices are passed through the various levels of
petroleum markets is not uniform. While successive sellers of a
product presumably act to cover their costs and make a profit, sellers
vary greatly in their pricing behavior, such as reaction to
competitors' price changes and attempts to protect or increase market
share. Additionally, as prices rise and fall, some marketers
reportedly reprice product for sale according to the cost of their
most recent purchase, while others will anticipate the cost of their
next purchase.*
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2003/gasolinepass/gasolinepass.htm
EIA
http://www.eia.doe.gov/
This Week in Petroleum
Released on February 15, 2006
(Next Release on February 23, 2006)
An Unusual Sight
"From the mid-Atlantic to the Northeast, the past weekend brought what
had become an unusual sight: a significant snowfall. New York City was
blanketed by a reported 27 inches of snow, while some suburbs of
Washington, DC received over a foot of snow. While not quite as
unusual, many motorists are also experiencing something they haven?t
seen much of in over a year: falling gasoline prices. Will retail
gasoline prices continue to drop? How low will they go? Although it is
always difficult to definitively predict gasoline prices, it is useful
to understand what we do know about the forces that are driving them.
Retail gasoline prices dropped nearly 6 cents per gallon between
February 6 and February 13, and are down over 7 cents per gallon since
January 30. But, the spot price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil
has fallen much faster, dropping by nearly $9 per barrel (about 21
cents per gallon) between January 30 and February 14. This drop in
crude oil prices has been reflected in spot gasoline prices as well,
with the New York spot price down nearly 40 cents per gallon over that
period. Spot gasoline prices elsewhere are even falling as well, with
the Chicago spot price down nearly 27 cents per gallon, the Gulf Coast
spot price down 34 cents per gallon, and the Los Angeles spot price
down 44 cents per gallon!
*Since it usually takes at least a week to start seeing changes in
spot prices reflected at the pump, and as many as 4 weeks to see the
bulk of the change reflected in retail prices, it appears that
consumers can look forward to a further decline in retail prices for
the next couple of weeks.
However, should spot prices start rising again before the retail
prices reflect the full magnitude of the current spot price decline,
the drop in retail prices could be halted and pump prices could begin
to rise again.*
Right now, there is some evidence to suggest that spot prices might
once again start rising later this month or the beginning of March.
First, the futures price for the current near-term contract (March
futures contract) has been running 12 to 17 cents per gallon less than
the April futures contract (the near-month contract in March) since
the beginning of February, indicating an expectation within the market
that prices might rise again soon. Secondly, there have been reports
that refinery maintenance could be heavy during March, causing a
drawdown of some of the gasoline inventories that have built up
recently. Third, as we get closer to spring and warmer weather,
gasoline demand is likely to increase, putting upward pressure on
prices. And finally, as refiners start increasing their gasoline
production in preparation for the upcoming peak driving season,
refiners will need to make decisions on how they will phase out the
use of MTBE as a gasoline blending component. As we highlighted in the
January 5, 2006 edition of This Week In Petroleum, companies?
decisions to eliminate MTBE have been driven by State bans due to
water contamination concerns and the potential for increased liability
exposure due to the elimination of the oxygen content requirement for
reformulated gasoline (RFG) included in the Energy Policy Act of 2005.
The elimination of MTBE in the gasoline pool will result in a
reduction of supply, which will put upward pressure on prices.
Thus, for the reasons cited above, EIA is estimating that pump prices
will continue to decline for the next couple of weeks, but that prices
are likely to start increasing again, maybe as early as March, as we
get closer to spring and the beginning of the peak driving season.
America?s motorists are likely in a similar position as skiers and
schoolchildren in the East, who were thrilled to see the recent
snowfall and hope for more over the coming weeks, but shouldn?t count
on a continuing bounty as winter turns to spring."
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp
Gasoline Price Pass-through
"Over the past several years, the Energy Information Administration
(EIA) has extensively studied the relationships between wholesale and
retail markets for transportation fuels. Beginning with gasoline, then
with diesel fuel, we looked at the two ends of the pricing structure
in U.S. markets: daily spot prices, which capture sales of large
quantities of product between refiners, importers/exporters, and
traders; and weekly retail prices, measured at local gasoline outlets
nationwide. In the course of this analysis, EIA has found that the
relationships between spot and retail prices are consistent and
predictable, to such an extent that changes in spot prices can be used
to forecast subsequent changes in retail prices for the appropriate
regions. This article represents a return to gasoline markets, where
EIA first performed this type of analysis and modeling in 1997. The
current effort takes advantage of improvements and enhancements to our
approach over the intervening years, resulting in more detailed and
accurate results."
*The manner in which prices are passed through the various levels of
petroleum markets is not uniform. While successive sellers of a
product presumably act to cover their costs and make a profit, sellers
vary greatly in their pricing behavior, such as reaction to
competitors' price changes and attempts to protect or increase market
share. Additionally, as prices rise and fall, some marketers
reportedly reprice product for sale according to the cost of their
most recent purchase, while others will anticipate the cost of their
next purchase.*
A further complication is that not all product sold goes through the
same levels of resale. Some product is sold directly by the refiner at
its own company-operated retail outlets, while other fuels go through
a succession of resales by any combination of traders, jobbers, lessee
dealers, or independent marketers."
"Estimates showed that the price passthrough from the spot to the
retail market is complete within two-and-one-half months, with about
50 percent of the change occurring within 2 weeks and 80 percent
within 4 weeks..."
"Aside from the accuracy of the model, what do these results indicate
about retail gasoline pricing? Perhaps one of the most revealing
aspects of this analysis is what the results do not show: there is so
little difference between actual retail gasoline prices and the
forecast created from spot prices and observed lag patterns that there
is no evidence of significant influence on aggregate retail prices
beyond the spot price level. In other words, despite allegations of
competitive irregularities in retail markets, it appears that most of
the movement in retail prices (on a national and regional basis) is
predetermined by previous movements in spot prices."
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2003/gasolinepass/gasolinepass.htm
"This report examines a recurring question about gasoline markets:
why, especially in times of high price volatility, do retail gasoline
prices seem to rise quickly but fall back more slowly? Do gasoline
prices actually rise faster than they fall, or does this just appear
to be the case because people tend to pay more attention to prices
when theyíre rising? This question is more complex than it might
appear to be initially, and it has been addressed by numerous analysts
in government, academia and industry. The question is very important,
because perceived problems with retail gasoline pricing have been used
in arguments for government regulation of prices."
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/price_changes_gas_market/pdf/price_change.pdf
Figure 1 shows the weekly average gasoline spot and retail prices in
the Unite States. The figure shows that spot price movements are both
faster and larger than retail price movements, and that the retail
price response lags the spot price movement on the way up and on the
way down, with the downward response appearing somewhat slower. This
is a visual indication that pattern asymmetry may exist. Additionally,
all evidence to date indicates that amount symmetry exists in all
gasoline markets because retail prices have a close relationship with
spot prices that does not change over time [Burdette and Zyren, 2003,
Table 6; also Dale et al., 1999, Table 3.7].6
However, the asymmetry effects on gasoline price relative to other
factors affecting price, such as changes in the international crude
oil markets, appear to be small. As described by Burdette and Zyren
[2003], a symmetric model was used to demonstrate that changes in spot
gasoline prices are passed through to retail in an exponentially
declining pattern over a period of about eight weeks. That work showed
that such a symmetric lag pattern can produce a forecast that
reasonably approximates observed retail gasoline patterns, suggesting
that asymmetry, if any, is small in the context of overall retail
price changes."
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/features/gaspassthrough2005.pdf
Regional Comparisons, Spatial Aggregation, and Asymmetry of Price Pass-Through
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/features/gaspassthrough2005.pdf
Primer on Gasoline Prices, A (2004 Update)
http://www.eia.doe.gov/bookshelf/brochures/gasolinepricesprimer/eia1_2005primerM.html
Price Changes in the Gasoline Market - Are Midwestern Gasoline Prices
Downward Sticky?
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/petroleum/0626.pdf
EIA Reports: Petroleum
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/reports/reportsD.asp?type=Petroleum
Gasoline Prices
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_gasoline.html
Short-Term Energy Outlook
February 7th, 2006 Release
(Next Update: March 7th, 2006)
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html
I hope this is what you were looking for. If you have any questions,
please post a clarification request and wait for me to respond before
closing/rating my answer.
Thank you,
hummer
Research Strategy: I searched the EIA website. |
