leapinglizard----thanks again for the additional work.  Outstanding!!   ron



Hi There!

I'm working on a project for a big client.  He's tasked me to predict
the future in a probabilistic manner.  So, I'm dusting off my Crystal Ball.

Here are some examples for the period 2005-2025.  The numbers are
probabilities these events will occur:

World population exceeds  8 billion                  95%
World population exceeds 12 billion                  20%
China's GDP growth averages 5%+ per year             60%
USA sends a man to the Moon                          20%
USA sends a man to Mars                             < 1%
Average female life expectancy exceeds 90 years      25%
Worldwide military budgets grow 6%+ per year         60%
South American wheat production declines             30%
Oil exceeds $100 per barrel                          15%
Elvis returns and he looks grrrreat                 < 1%

You get the idea.  My client is looking for a mixture of sure things,
probable things, and completely wacky long-shots.  (I'm an old guy. 
Have you ever noticed how long-shots seem to happen much more often
than probability says they should?!  Maybe that's how rich people get
rich!)

A 5-star answer would be 50 one-line predictions.  No supporting
doumentation or web sites are needed.  I'm just looking for some ideas
and some opinions.
If you're creative or drink a lot, you could probably "brainstorm" the
50 predictions based upon reading the newspaper.  This project
involves creative intuition----with a small dose of logic and
probabilities added on...


All comments appreciated.
Wacky and nutty ideas especially appreciated!

Thanks.
ron

P.S.   If the orginal 50 ideas are accepted by the client, then the
tip will be $1 for each one-liner between 51 and 200.  Hence, if the
client likes the work, this question could be worth $200 total.  Thx!

I'm grateful for the additional work. I had a good time, I'll confess,
peering into the future. I'll reproduce probabilities 51 through 200
below for the sake of form, if not for posterity.

Your humble servant,

leapinglizard



51.  Over 60% of email traffic consists of spam:  90%

52.  Over 90% of email traffic consists of spam:  40%

53.  In an effort to curb spam, the US government imposes an email tax
of 1 cent or so per message on Internet service providers:  10%

54. The cheapest digital camera that isn't a toy has an optical resolution
of at least 10 megapixels:  95%

55.  The picture quality of the best digital cameras equals that of the
best film cameras:  75%

56.  Fewer than 1,000,000 film cameras are manufactured worldwide in 2025:  60%

57.  Skin-tight synthetic clothing is popular:  66%

58.  Transparent clothing is popular:  33%

59.  Expensive sneakers use motorized springs to make you run faster:  50%

60.  Desktop 3-D printers can output simple manufactured goods:  20%

61.  Maggots are routinely used to disinfect wounds:  85%

62.  Swarms of micro-scale robots carry out surgical procedures inside
the body:  60% 

63.  Swarms of nano-scale robots fight diseased cells inside the body:  3%

64.  At least 25% of American wheat is grown from genetically modified
strains:  60% 

65.  Gay marriage is legalized in at least one American state:  30%

66.  Gay marriage is legalized throughout the US by federal law:  10%

67.  Fewer than 20% of US adults smoke cigarettes:  66%

68.  Tobacco use is federally prohibited:  3%

69.  Marijuana is declared legal for recreational use in at least one
American state:  35%

70.  Alcohol is federally prohibited:  1%

71.  Over 50% of US marriages end in divorce:  75%

72.  Over 60% of US marriages end in divorce:  20%

73.  The Supreme Court decides that marriage is a private matter in
which the law should not intervene:  15%

74.  The Supreme Court decides that women may go topless wherever men
are permitted to do so: 30%

75.  Switzerland joins the European Union: 75%

76.  The European Union musters an army of its own:  90%

77.  Quebec secedes from Canada:  30%

78.  Quebec secedes from Canada but changes its mind and rejoins a few
years later:  10%

79.  Alberta secedes from Canada and joins the United States:  3%

80.  By 2025, the Democratic Party has regained control of the Presidency
and of both houses of Congress for at least one term:  60%

81.  The US election law is changed so that Arnold Schwarzenegger and
other naturalized US citizens may run for the Presidency:  25%

82.  Hillary Clinton has been elected President:  14%

83.  The Green Party has sent a Representative to Congress:  2%

84.  The Libertarian Party outperforms the Republicans or Democrats in
a Presidential election:  1%

85.  The Irish Republican Army ceases to exist as a meaningful force:  33%

86.  The Basque separatist movement ETA ceases to exist as a meaningful
force:  25%

87.  Several countries engage in military action to secure mining or
drilling rights in Antarctica:  25%

88.  A sovereign state is established in Antarctica:  10%

89.  India and Pakistan go to war over Kashmir:  77%

90.  The Kashmir struggle is permanently resolved with a peace treaty: 20%

91.  Pakistan detonates a nuclear weapon in anger:  6%

92.  North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon in anger:  4%

93.  Israel detonates a nuclear weapon in anger:  2%

94.  South Korea and North Korea merge into a united Korean republic: 25%

95.  Japan, Taiwan, and Thailand form an Asian Union to compete with
the European Union:  40%

96.  Australia joins the Asian Union:  25%

97.  China declares war on Russia:  17%

98.  China declares war on Japan:  14%

99.  A species that died out within the past 200 years is brought back
through biotechnology:  30%

100.  A dinosaur species is brought back through biotechnology:  3%

101.  Cosmetic dentistry has mastered the science of growing teeth:  60%

102.  Cloning gains widespread acceptance as a way to resurrect deceased
pets:  80%

103.  Cloning gains widespread acceptance as a way to resurrect deceased
children:  5%

104.  Cloning gains widespread acceptance as a way to recurrect deceased
CEOs of major corporations:  0.5%

105.  Most HIV-positive people in the United States can enjoy normal
lifespans with constant pharmacological therapy:  92%

106.  Most HIV-positive people in Africa can enjoy normal lifespans with
constant pharmacological therapy:  2%

107.  The American government institutes Canadian-style socialized health
care:  33%

108.  Top surgeons sell their services on web-based auction sites:  60%

109.  The US Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade:  40%

110.  Parents in 2025 routinely use genetic screening to choose some
physical attributes of their newborn children:  88%

111.  Parents in 2025 routinely use genetic screening to choose some
psychological attributes of their newborn children:  33%

112.  Advances in gene therapy mean that the children of 2025 will never
go bald:  1%

113.  Advances in herbal medicine mean that you can actually buy pills
online that make your breasts rounder or your abs firmer:  < 1%

114.  One US dollar is worth more than one Euro:  90%

115.  One Canadian dollar is worth more than one US dollar:  30%

116.  One Euro is worth more than two US dollars: 13%

117.  The US budget is balanced in 2025:  60%

118.  The US national debt decreases in real value between 2005 and 2025:  20%

119.  In 2025, the value of US exports exceeds the value of its imports: 10%

120.  The highest US income-tax bracket has a rate greater than 50%:  66%

121.  The highest US income-tax bracket has a rate less than 40%:  10%

122.  By executive decree, the IRS institutes a flat-rate income tax:  3%

123.  The government institutes a national sales tax:  60%

124.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average no longer includes IBM among its
components: 42%

125.  At least one new component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is
an Internet-era company founded in the 1990s:  84%

126.  The Nasdaq index becomes more widely recognized than the Dow Jones:  30%

127.  The Standard & Poor's 500 index becomes more widely recognized
than the Dow Jones:  15%

128.  Pennies are withdrawn from US circulation:  90%

129.  Nickels are withdrawn from US circulation:  60%

130.  The one-dollar bill is withdrawn from US circulation:  40%

131.  All coins are withdrawn from US circulation:  10%

132.  All cash is withdrawn from US circulation:  < 1%

133.  The Yankees win the World Series at least three times between 2005
and 2025:  40%

134.  The Red Sox win the World Series more often than the Yankees
between 2005 and 2025:  10%

135.  A minority of NFL quarterbacks in the 2025 draft are white:  75%

136.  A majority of NBA players come from outside the United States: 60%

137.  A professional sports team attracts a player with a contract worth
$1 billion or more:  55%

138.  Dressage is eliminated as an Olympic event:  40%

139.  Squash is added as an Olympic event:  15%

140.  Billiards is added as an Olympic event:  1%

141.  China wins more Olympic gold medals between 2008 and 2024 than
any other nation:  85%

142.  China wins a gold medal in Olympic basketball:  60%

143.  The United States soccer team reaches the World Cup semi-finals: 15%

144.  American Major League Soccer draws a greater audience than the NHL:  40%

145.  The NFL awards a franchise to a Canadian city:  23%

146.  The NHL awards a franchise to a Mexican city:  6%

147.  Basketball players have become so tall that the NBA increases the
regulation basketball height to keep the game interesting:  4%

148.  Digital postage replaces 95% of postage stamps:  90%

149.  First-class letter mail declines by 50%:  85%

150.  The United States Postal Service is privatized:  50%

151.  Venice sinks at least 6 inches:  70%

153.  The Tower of Pisa topples:  5%

152.  Venice sinks out of sight:  < 1%

154.  Chinese-made automobiles are sold in the United States:  95%

155.  Chinese-made automobiles account for at least 5% of the US market:  60%

156.  Chinese-made automobiles outsell Japanese-made ones in the United
States:  16%

157.  French automobiles return to the US market in a big way:  6%

158.  At least one American make of automobile is manufactured by robots
alone, without any human intervention:  40%

159.  A serious traffic accident is provably caused by a software bug
in a car's on-board computer:  60%

160.  The conventional broadcast networks control less than 50% of the
commercial television market:  85%

161.  Low-resolution commercial television is phased out entirely in
favor of HDTV broadcasts:  75%

162.  At least one commercial television station broadcasts mainly over
the Internet: 55%

163.  Satellite radio controls over 50% of the commercial radio market: 22%

164.  The digital version of the New York Times outsells the paper
version:  70%

165.  More local calls are placed over the Internet than through analog
phone lines:  20%

166.  More international calls are placed over the Internet than through
analog phone lines:  35%

167.  A popular new music-video performer is actually a lifelike digital
animation: 70%

168.  A popular new Hollywood actor is actually a lifelike digital
animation:  40%

169.  Boy bands are a thing of the past:  20%

170.  Heavy metal is a thing of the past:  5%

171.  A Bach remix reaches the top of the charts:  2%

172.  More than 50% of music albums are sold digitally through the
Internet: 95%

173.  The average cost of a music album is greater than $10:  90%

174.  More than 50% of digital music albums are pirated rather than
purchased: 33%

175.  Flying cars become a reality:  10%

176.  Flying carpets become a reality:  1%

177.  Teleportation becomes a reality:  < 1%

178.  A light railway is built in Manhattan:  77%

179.  A monorail is built in Manhattan:  44%

180.  The light railway is shut down in Los Angeles:  22%

181.  In 2025, there are 7,000,000 car accidents in the US:  90%

182.  The number of alcohol-related traffic accidents declines between
2005 and 2025: 60%

183.  Bicycle helmets are mandatory in most US cities:  80%

184.  Pedestrian helmets are mandatory in some US cities:  3%

185.  The water level of the Colorado River drops too far to permit
further diversion for agricultural irrigation:  90%

186.  Canada exports water from its underground reserves to US cities:  75%

187.  Saudi Arabia imports icebergs from Antarctica to bolster its water
supply:  45%

188.  The ocean becomes too saline to support some aquatic species:  20%

189.  The average global temperature rises by 0.5 degree Celsius between
2005 and 2025:  60%

190.  The average global temperature rises by 1.0 degree Celsius between
2005 and 2025:  20%

191.  Global warming begins to decline thanks to efforts to curb
greenhouse-gas emissions:  50%

192.  Global warming begins to decline due to the onset of an ice age:  13%

193.  Global temperatures drop so much that the CFC ban is lifted and
consumers are urged to use aerosol sprays as much as possible:  < 1%

194.  Most youth in 2025 believe that they are the most important
generation in world history:  99%

195.  Most adults in 2025 know that they are not the most important
generation in world history:  99%

196.  The Southern swarms of killer bees never advance far enough into
the United States to cause a problem:  90%

197.  As in the 19th century, a plague of Rocky Mountain locusts afflicts
the American Midwest:  33%

198.  As in the Old Testament, a plague of frogs afflicts the Midwest:  < 1%

199.  The end of the world is brought about by a man-made disaster:  0.1%

200.  The end of the world is brought about by a natural disaster:  0.01%

leapinglizard---fantastic!   Thanks again.

ron

P.S.  I am using a technique from the recent book, "The Wisdom of Crowds."
I plan to distribute your predictions to my friends in an Excel spredsheet.
I'll leave off your probabilities, and ask my friends to fill in their
best numerical guesses.  Will let you know in a few weeks about the
biggest agreements and disagreements with your numbers.  It's all for
fun and profit.  Thanks again for your work.  Super-duper !  (Guess
I'm dating myself...)

Ron & LL --

This is a great article that ran in the Seattle P-I on Sunday.  The
irony is that I just noticed that the author was an instructor of mine
way back last century at Purdue University.

In any case it has lots of references to future changes:
Seattle Post-Intelligencer (reprint from Denver Post)
"Futurists foresee flying cars and packed preschools," (Jack Cox, Jan. 2, 2005)
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/lifestyle/206336_futurists.html

Best regards,

Omnivorous-GA

Ha, flying cars. Weren't we supposed to have those by now? Come to
think of it, didn't I hear somewhere that Ron keeps a flying car in
the desert?

leapinglizard

I thought that Frey's comment was particularly astute: "I always tell
people that the next big thing is already out there. It was invented
25 years ago," Frey says. But as was the case with the Internet
(invented in 1969) and cell phones (1973), "It takes an entire
generation for things to kick in."

Best regards,

Omnivorous-GA

omnivorous---terrific article.  Thanks for sending it.

Your comment also took me back to the last century.  When I was in the
military, I use to go into Grissom AFB and then drive to the Purdue
library.

Then (as now), Purdue has the world's foremost separate library on
recurring cycles and forecasting----especially forecasting commodity
and securities prices.

Small world!
ron

Gotta go with the Flaming Lips' predic from "Riding to Work in the
Year 2025" from the "Zaireeka" CD about being invisible.

=0=0=0=0=0=0=0=0=0=0=0=0=0=0=0=0=0=

On some driven ship,
the morning commuter ride,
everything is orange and bright. ?

You're invisible now,
and I know that it's hard to get used to. 

=0=0=0=0=0=0=0=0=0=0=0=0=0=0=0=0=0=


If LL's #57 comes to pass, for some of us that'll be a blessing, believe you me.

Put me down for ?5.01.

The crystal balls of 
? V ?

Hi voila,

I don't know whether that's poetry or pornography.  But I like it!

Thanks, as always, for your erudite comments!
ron