NEED ANSWERS BY COB MONDAY JANUARY 10,2005 

Please fill in the following blanks:

Africa has ________ percent(approximate) of the world's known cases of malaria. 

Africa has ________ percent(approximate) of the world's known cases of
tuberculosis.

Africa has an average literacy rate of _______ percent(If need be,
please average the numbers for women and men, which may be
considerably diiferent)

Over the past five years, Africa's GDP per capita compared to other
regions(ie: Europe, Asia, Sotuh America etc) is_______________. This
could be either a zero, meaning no growth or a negative number,
meaning a decline in GDP per capita.

---

Request for Question Clarification by markj-ga on 07 Jan 2005 15:29 PST

drfloodd --

I am optimistic about getting useful data for you quickly, but I need
your reaction to a few questions based on my preliminary research to
make sure that I am on the right track:

1.  Malaria.  I can give you data from reliable sources on approximate
cases of malaria in Africa as a percentage of worldwide cases for at
least two fairly recent years (1990 would likely be one of them). 
Depending on the source and year, these percentage estimates would
fall somewhere in a range of 10 percentage points of each other. 
Would that be sufficiently precise and recent for your purposes?  If
not, what would be?

2.  Tuberculosis.  I have a firm estimate from a very reliable source.
 No problem there.

3.  I have found an overall literacy rate for Africa from a reliable
source for 2000.  Is that recent enough for your purposes?

4.  As for the GDP per capita issue, I'm not sure I understand your
question.  I have found a good source for annual GDP per capita for
sub-Saharan Africa and for other world regions going back from 2003
for at least 20 years (depending on the region).  Are you looking just
for a GDP per capita number for each of the most current five years
(to 2003) for Africa and other world regions?  Or do you want
computations of a rate of growth (positive or negative) for each
region, or something else?  And would data for sub-Saharan Africa be
suitable for your purposes?

markj-ga

---

Clarification of Question by drfloodd-ga on 07 Jan 2005 20:58 PST

Mark, Great job so far and expeditous as well. Thanks.

Should have mnade clear that the numbers I really need are those for
sub-Saharan Africa. These will be easier and more dramatic although
perhaps not as cuurent.

For malaria, I need as close to current numbers as you can find. But
all I need to say is that sub-saharan Africa has approximately
__________percent of the cases of malaria today. Great precison is not
necesary, we just have to be in ballpark.

As regards literacy rate, I got one from WHO which I think said it was
almost 70% for men and lower for women. I doubt these figures.
Whatever you find, make sure it is for sub-saharan Africa as I am sure
those figures would be lower. Again I need to say that sub-saharan
africa has a literacy rate of, which is __________ percent lower than
the average of the rest of the world.


4. with regards to this question. I would like 2 pieces of information
for africa and america/western europe/ and asia.  First the GDP per
capita in purchasing power parity of these 3 regions post WWII, and
the GDP growth rates for these 3 regions over the same time period. 
Thus, the GDP in PPP US Dollars for 1.america, europe and asia and
africa and 2. gdp growth rates for america , europe and asia and
africa post WWII.  Basically I would like to be able to demonstrate
that while after world war II, the US, Europe and many Asian countries
saw a lot of develpment and economic boom, africa has stagnated with a
low GDP, and a low and perhaps negative growth rate.

I will be off email tomoorw from 9am to 5pm so if you need further
clarification, please text or call me on my cell 917-545-3100.

I am completing  final report that needs to be in final by Monday so I
greatly apprecite your quick help.

---

Request for Question Clarification by markj-ga on 08 Jan 2005 01:07 PST

drfloodd --

Thanks for your clarification.  I think that's enough for me to work with today.  

One further question on your clarification. You now say that you are
looking for GDP-per-capita information since WWII.  The very good
source that I have found goes back only to 1981 for sub-Saharan Africa
and back to the 60s or 70s for other regions. Based on your original
question, I will assume for now that information based on 1990-2003
GDP data will work for you. I don't knoyet whether the limitation to
sub-Saharan Africa will be a problem, but I don't think so.

Finally, researchers are strictly prohibited from direct contact with
customers, so I cannot call you, although I don't think that will be a
problem anyway.  Because of your stringent time limitation, what I
propose to do is prepare and post an answer today.  Then, if it needs
tweaking, you can ask for clarification of that answer.


markj-ga

drfloodd --

Thanks for your clarification.   In order to make this answer concise,
yet complete and easy for you to use,  I have taken your
?fill-in-the-blank? sentences in order, and then followed each brief
answer with explanatory notes and the sources for my information.  So
let?s get right to it.

1.  ?According to the World Health Organization, 90% of  the world?s
cases of malaria occur in sub-Saharan Africa.?

Sources and Explanatory Notes:

The World Health Organization (?WHO?) held a ?Summit on Malaria? in
April 2000.  The 90% figure was widely cited in connection with that
summit.  For example:

?Malaria is today one of the two top killer diseases in sub-Saharan
Africa. It causes more than one million deaths each year, most of them
among children under five years of age.  .  .  .  ?Since 90% of cases
of the disease worldwide occur in Africa, the Region has become the
main focus of the efforts to Roll Back Malaria.?
WHO: African Region: Direct: Speeches: Summit On Malaria
http://www.afro.who.int/regionaldirector/speeches/rd200000417.html


This WHO document also uses the 90% figure as an estimate of
sub-Saharan Africa?s share of malarial deaths:

?The vast majority of malaria deaths occur in Africa, south of the
Sahara, where malaria also presents major obstacles to social and
economic development.   .  .  .  There are at least 300 million acute
cases of malaria each year globally, resulting in more than a million
deaths. Around 90% of these deaths occur in Africa, mostly in young
children. ?

Roll Back Malaria Info Sheets (click on ?Malaria in Africa?)
http://rbm.who.int/cgi-bin/rbm/rbmportal/custom/rbm/programView.do?pageTypeId=10951&programPage=%2Fcustom%2Fprogram%2Fdefault.jsp&programId=11077&channelId=-10702&BV


(WHO seems to use the terms ?Africa? and ?sub-Saharan Africa?
interchangeably.   This is understandable insofar as the African
Region of WHO is comprised almost entirely of sub-Saharan countries
and because these diseases are endemic to this region.  In my
judgment, you are justified in associating the term ?sub-Saharan? in
connection with the malaria and tuberculosis data for those reasons.}


2.  ?According  to the World Health Organization, sub-Saharan Africa
accounted for 26% of the world?s cases of tuberculosis in 2002. ?

Source:
This information is contained in this table published by WHO, which is
 entitled ?Estimated TB incidence and mortality, 2002?:

WHO: Media Centre: Fact Sheets
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs104/en/

(Note that the percentages are contained in parentheses in the first
column of the table.?)


3.  ?According to UNESCO, sub-Saharan Africa had an estimated adult
literacy rate of 61% in 2000.   The breakdown between literacy rates
for men and women in the region was 69% for the male adult populations
and 54% for women.?


Source:
The source for this information is a table published in a United
Nations document entitled ?World Education Report 2000: The Right To
Education: Towards Education For All
Throughout Life.?  Here is a direct link to the table:

UNESCO: World Education Report: Table 2.3, Estimated adult literacy
rates, by region, 1970 and 2000
http://www.unesco.org/education/information/wer/PDFeng/wholewer.PDF


4.  ?According to the World Research Institute (?WRI?), GDP per capita
in sub-Saharan Africa declined by about 20% between 1990-2002
(although it spiked higher in 2003, possibly because of the sudden
drop in the value of the dollar).   During the same period (again
ignoring a spike in 2003), GDP per capita rose in Europe by 19% and in
North America by 35%.  It is especially interesting to note that for
the overall category WRI calls ?Low Income  Countries,?  GDP per
capital steadily rose during the 1990-2002 period and was  17% higher
at the end of the period than in 1990.?


Source and Explanatory Notes:

This GDP data comes from the very useful website of the World Research
Institute and is based on GDP data generated by the World Bank (and
available only in a $100 report) and population data from the United
Nations.  Here is a link to the versatile search page, from which one
can generate GDP-per capita data on a country or regional basis:

Earth Trends: World Research Institute: Searchable Index
http://earthtrends.wri.org/searchable_db/index.cfm?theme=5&variable_ID=638&action=select_countries

And here is a link to the WRI?s home page, so that you evaluate the
organization as a source for your project::

Earth Trends: World Resource Institute
http://earthtrends.wri.org/


I have included data only for Africa, Europe and North America because
the data for South America are inconsistent with these data in that
they show an unexplained steady decline in GDP per capita since 1998. 
 Data for Asia is not available on the site, probably because the
primary-source GDP data from the World Bank report does not include
it.

I have chosen the period 1990-2002 for defining GDP per capita trends
because the WRI data for Europe only goes back that far.  If you are
interested in going back as far as  1981 for Africa, the trend would
remain the same and the percentage change can be easily computed.

Finally, as noted above, I have ignored the upward spike (in all the
regions) in 2003, since it seems to be anomalous and may be explained
by the sudden and rapid decline in the value of the dollar, although
this is only my rather uneducated guess.


Additional Information:

Here are the year-by-year breakdowns of the GDP per capita data in
current U.S. dollars for sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, North America and
the overall category of  ?Low Income Countries:?

Sub-Saharan Africa 

2003  597.0 
2002  474.2 
2001  481.4
2000  503.6 
1999  510.2 
1998  525.3 
1997  573.7 
1996  567.1 
1995  554.6 
1994  504.4 
1993  533.1 
1992  584.4 
1991  599.5 
1990  593.8 


Europe 

2003  16,740.4 
2002  13,763.9 
2001  12,609.5 
2000  12,414.8 
1999  13,254.0 
1998  13,372.8 
1997  13,153.9 
1996  13,875.8 
1995  13,633.9 
1994  12,108.0 
1993  11,559.3 
1992  12,638.4 
1991  11,794.5 
1990  11,591.3


North America

2003  36,043.3 
2002  34,482.5 
2001  33,518.3 
2000  33,147.4 
1999  31,554.0 
1998  30,166.9 
1997  29,057.3 
1996  27,608.2 
1995  26,468.5 
1994  25,490.0 
1993  24,368.8 
1992  23,584.6 
1991  22,756.9 
1990  22,313.5

 
Low Income Countries 

2003  475.4 
2002  418.0 
2001  403.5 
2000  396.1 
1999  390.7 
1998  381.0 
1997  387.1 
1996  375.9 
1995  349.5 
1994  318.3 
1993  304.4 
1992  300.5 
1991  324.8 
1990  355.8


Search Strategy:

I am familiar with the WHO website, which has a very useful store of
information and flexible search engine.  I used a variety of Google
searches to find the WRI site and to gain reasonable confidence that
there is no authoritative inconsistent information from other sources.
 Here are a few of the more useful searches:

"overall literacy rate" africa
://www.google.com/search?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8&rls=GGLD,GGLD:2004-53,GGLD:en&q=+%22overall+literacy+rate%22+africa

"GDP per capita" region
://www.google.com/search?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8&rls=GGLD,GGLD:2004-53,GGLD:en&q=%22GDP+per+capita%22+region

unesco "world education report"
://www.google.com/search?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8&rls=GGLD,GGLD:2004-53,GGLD:en&q=unesco+%22world+education+report%22

Based on your clarification, I believe that this information will be
useful to you.  If further clarification is needed, please ask for it
before rating the answer.


markj-ga

---

Request for Answer Clarification by drfloodd-ga on 08 Jan 2005 06:57 PST

Mark, Well beyond what I needed and extremly thorough, so Thank you. I
am running out but will be back for a complete read later and then
will be happy to rate.

again thank you.

Peter

---

Clarification of Answer by markj-ga on 08 Jan 2005 07:25 PST

Peter --

Thanks for your preliminary kind words.  

The answer may have been longer than you expected because I thought it
prudent to include enough material from cited sources to allow you to
defend this information if you are called upon to do so.  I do hope
that the basic information is presented in a form that is convenient
and useful.


markj-ga

Did an outstanding job in a short time. I would use Mark again for
help. If all researchers are as good as Mark, then this is a service I
will continue to use.