Hi,

I am looking for a chart I have heard about latelly, that compares how
fast the following products/services penetrated the market. I don't
know how the chart exactly is, but it goes something like (I don't
know the real figures):
- Telephone lines took 100 years to penetrate 95% of the market
- TV took 40 years
- Mobile phones took 10 years
- Internet took 8 years
- Broadband ?

I am just looking for this chart or a similar one. The best market for
the chart would be EU, but I would accept the US.

I located a publication from The Harvard Information Infrastructure
Project titled  THE FIRST 100 FEET FOR HOUSEHOLDS, CONSUMER ADOPTION
PATTERNS by John Carey.
http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/iip/doeconf/carey.html

John Carey, telecommunications expert, shows the number of years it
took for the various mass media and communications technologies that
dominate our lives to reach 50% penetration of U.S. households

------------------------------------------------------------------
                             Table 3 
------------------------------------------------------------------
Number of Years To Reach A 50 Percent Penetration Of US Households
------------------------------------------------------------------

Technology/Medium     Years to Reach 50% Penetration
Newspapers            100+
Telephone              70
Phonograph             55
Cable TV               39
Personal Computer      16*
Color TV               15
VCR                    10
Radio                   9
B&W TV                  8
------------------------------------------------------------------
* To reach 40 percent penetration
------------------------------------------------------------------




The presentation Adoption of New Media by John Carey provides the
following figures:
http://www.bnet.fordham.edu/carey1/Adoption%20No%20Photos.ppt


See page 11
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Number of Years to Reach 50% Penetration of U.S. Households
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sources: Electronic Industry Association; US Dept. of Commerce; Dataquest

Newspapers               100+
Telephone                 70
Phonograph                55
Electricity               43
Cable Television          39
FM Radio                  30
Color Television          17
Personal Computer         17
Compact Disk Player       15
VCR                       10
AM Radio                   9
Black & White Television   8
DVD                        6
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Website: 
Fordham Business http://www.bnet.fordham.edu/carey1/Adoption%20No%20Photos.ppt




According to the U.S. Dept. of Commerce ?The Internet's pace of
adoption eclipses all other technologies that preceded it. Radio was
in existence 38 years before 50 million people tuned in; TV took 13
years to reach that benchmark. Sixteen years after the first PC kit
came out, 50 million people were using one. Once it was opened to the
general public, the Internet crossed that line in four years.?

The Emerging Digital Economy Report: U.S. Dept. of Commerce
http://web.archive.org/web/19990508041250/www.ecommerce.gov/danc1.htm

International Engineering Consortium
http://www.iec.org/online/tutorials/evolution/topic02.html



From the Discovery Institute Newsletter:

?Attaining the 10 percent threshold of consumer adoption took 12 years
for color TV, 10 years for the VCR, eight years for the cell-phone and
?ve years for the CD player. Broadband hit 10 percent after only four
years in the market.?

Read the full text of this article here:
http://www.discovery.org/scripts/viewDB/filesDB-download.php?id=38


Search criteria:
Penetration rates TV OR television radio telephone ?*years?
Adoption rates TV OR television radio telephone ?*years?


I hope you find this information helpful!


Best regards,
Bobbie7

---

Clarification of Answer by bobbie7-ga on 25 Jan 2005 11:28 PST

"Linsay Watt, Senior Consultant and author of the study, explains:
"Recent analyst and operator projections suggested that mobile data
services would penetrate the market within 12 months of being
launched. However, this is in direct contrast to what we have learned
from history over the past century. For instance, to penetrate 10 per
cent of US households, it took 48 years for television, 28 years for
Internet, 22 years for radio, and 20 years for both mobile and fixed
line telephone. In order to drive customer acceptance, operators need
to introduce strategies that increase customers' familiarity with the
service, improve its usability, and ensure it is perceived as cost
effective."

Cap Gemini Ernst & Young
http://www.capgemini.com/tme/news/press_pages/customer_ac_pr.shtml

Great job! Just what I needed.

One imagines a novice's internet search on "Penetration" going horribly awry.