Dear Smash,
It is very difficult to "prophecise" what would be a success and what
would not. Only three-four out of ten films produced are even
profitable, not to mention a "hit" [1]. Studios employ whole teams
dedicated to that, and still they have flops; on the other side of
these team's mistakes, we usually don't see films that the studios
have rejected, and might have been successful. The second most
successful film worldwide this year was "Harry Potter and the Prisoner
of Azkaban" (Warner Bros.). Earning $789.8 million worldwide, it is
second only to Shrek II [2].
What were successful biographical movies last year:
(1) The Passion of Christ - worldwide success with $611.3 million.
(2) Alexander - way bellow Jesus, with "only" $154.3 million worldwide.
(3) The Aviator - $125.7 million worldwide. About Howard Hughes.
(4) Ray - with $88 million worldwide. About Ray Charles.
(5) Miracle - $64.4 worldwide (biography of Herb Brooks; but focuses
on an event: beating the USSR in hockey, so it is more of a "sports"
film as it is a biography)
(6) The Motorcycle Diaries - with $56.7 million worldwide (Che Guevara)
(7) Kinsey - $10.0 million worldwide
(8) Ned Kelly - $6.4 million worldwide
(9) The Assassination of Richard Nixon - $849.000 (not really a
biography of a famous man).
(10) Bukowski: Born Into This - $329,000 (about Charles Bukowski, documentary)
Now, lets' look at these films, and especially the first eight (since,
as I have written, "The Assassination..." is not really a biographical
film of a famous man (in fact, Sean Penn plays a regular John Doe who
loses it); and Bukowski is a documentary.
The list is pretty slim, given that it has been dug out of a list of
the 260 most successful movies in 2004 [2] (I apologise in advance in
one movie or another slipped out, since the list lacks the plots, and
I used IMDB [3] to fill the holes with the few titles I didn't
recognise).
Of the top ten, the huge blockbusters, only "Passion" is sort of
biographical, though it relies on the Bible; The first four are "all
family" (what used to be children's films, but are not anymore);
There's one more comedy (Fockers); and several action films, with big
stars such as George Clooney, Brad Pitt, or Will Smith. The chances of
getting into that list, with a theme like yours, are pretty slim: it
cannot have lots of action or special effects; if it will be
provocative (as one could develope from frde-ga's idea), it will be
age-restricted; and it won't be a comedy a-la Stiller either.
So, we look further down the list.
Of the other people who had "won" a biographical film dedicated to
them this year, we had 2 worldwide known figures (Alexander and Ray
Charles), which is probably not the case with Lord Baden Powell.
Howard Hughes, Alfred Kinsey and Che Guevara might be better examples
of fairly known figures. Of them, Kinsey's film is based on a popular
book (that "proved" to the studios that this is an interesting topic.
After all, it deals with sex); Hughes was a well known controversial
figure; and Guevara still appears on posters in every college dorm
from San Francisco, through Paris and all the way to Osaka and Sydney.
A "cult" figure if you'd like. Bukowski, by the way, is also this type
of a cult figure.
So, this all radiate a not optimistic prospects for such a film: the
figure is not controversial or "cult" enough (unless one intends to
follow the pedophiliac rumours course, mentioned before); the audience
does not "experience" the film, and the age of educational films is
gone [1].
Moreover, filming scenes from the Boer War is likely to make the movie
expeinsive, unless one finds a way round it. Of the figures mentioned
before, two of the films, the Aviator and Alexander, are hosted by
stars, that would draw audience. People like that also cost money.
Another problem might be political: Baden-Powell was a British
nationalist, and lived till his death in the Kenyan colony. It might
be problematic in today's political atmosphere. The Boer War and other
historical themes (colonialism in Africa) could deter viewers from
areas in the world that are not that concentrated on English history
(the Japanese market is especially notable, but it is questionable if
US-Americans would come en masse to an historical-biographical film
engaging a non-American figure, and non-American history).
The question also raises if the figure of "over 360 millions
worldwide" that have been to the scouts, wold turn up at the
box-office. People join the scouts of different reasons (usually
because they like having fun with their friends in summer-camps and
afternoon activities), but I wold doubt it if most of these people
cherish Baden-Powell's heritage, or would put it somewhere on the
first ten reasons for joining the Scouts. The adult graduates might
want to see a film that remindes them of their childhood, not
necessarily a film about the founder of the movement.
Here's a comparison: A film about the life of Friedrich Engels is
likely to be much more boring than a film about the Russian
Revolution, even if the first had inspirated the latter. The Russian
Revolution had blood, love, passion. Engels had sat at home and
written; met Karl Marx and went to textile mills, apparently in order
to get beaten up. The "Motorcycle Diaries", if we'll get back to real
hit movies, instead of hypothetical ones, is based on a limited, much
adventureous, period, in Che Guevara's life; not on his boredom of
being Cuba's Minister of Finance after the Revolution.
So, despite having 28 million Scouts worldwide today [4], the
likeliness of it becoming a hit movie seem a bit problematic. However,
some movies are more successful as rental movies, as they are in the
box-office. This might be an example, since scout groups everywhere
might want to screen it to the new recruits, so they'll know more
about the founder.
It should be mentioned, that the marketability of movies on DVD (that
haven't gone well in the box-office) is a bit of a myth. The most
successful DVDs are usually huge box office success (e.g., Lord of the
Rings), or action/sci-fi and children's movies, since these markets
are stronger than the adults' one (as in older people, not as in adult
entertainment) [5].
It is not impossible, though, that a Baden-Powell film would be a
success, granted that:
(1) The script would be adapted to modern times. People have changed
since the days of Cecil B. DeMille;
(2) Because the story is not very attractive, there should be either
star attracttion; or free-adaptation based loosely on his life, but
adding dramatic features - or, as mentioned before, scandaleous film.
(3) A successful written biography of Baden-Powell might convince
studios to invest in it. Since the top successful movies are almost
always promoted by the studios (the few exceptions are either Indian
films, which gained their own audience; or European movies promoted in
the US by an American studio), it is important that the big studios
would believe in it.
SOURCES
=======
[1] Thorsten Hennig-Thurau, Mark B. Houston, and Gianfranco J. Walsh,
2003. "Determinants of Motion Picture Box Office and Profitability: An
Interrelationship Approach , Working Paper No. 4 - September 2003,
Chair for Marketing and Media Research, Department of Media Research ,
Bauhaus-University of Weimar ,
<http://www.uni-weimar.de/medien/marketing/publikationen/arbeitspapiere/Unveiling%20the%20Mysteries%20working%20paper%20No%204.pdf>
(PDF document).
[2] Box Office Mojo , 2004 WORLDWIDE GROSSES
<http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?view=worldwide&yr=2004&p=.htm>
[3] IMDB, www.imdb.com
[4] World Scout Census,
<http://www.scoutbase.org.uk/library/hqdocs/facts/pdfs/fs295412.pdf>
(PDF document)
[5] James Gilbert-Rolfe, Umaima Merchant and Veronika Moroian. 2002/3.
"Drivers of Marketing Spending in Motion Pictures" The Anderson School
at UCLA, Applied Management Research: Special Project
<http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/documents/areas/ctr/ccp/pdf_hanssensmktgspenddriver03.pdf>
Moreover
========
[1] Michael Hauge, "Michael Hauge's Rules for Adaptation"
<http://www.screenplaymastery.com/Rules.htm>
[2] KAMEL JEDIDI, ROBERT E. KRIDER and CHARLES B. WEINBERG 1998.
""Clustering at the Movies" _Marketing Letters_ 9:4 (1998): 393?405,
<http://www.sauder.ubc.ca/faculty/research/docs/weinberg/MovieClusters.pdf>
PDF document
[3] For DVD sales, rental and other figures, see : DVD Exclusive
Online , <http://www.dvdexclusive.com/>
I hope this answered your question and hasn't disappointed you too
much. Please contact me if you need any clarifications on this answer
before you rate it. My search strategy included searching for studies
done on success of films; charts and articles on potential success. |
