What is the future and competition in the manufactured home business?
I recently went to Florida to visit a company that is the only one or
one of few that is selling franchises in manufactured homes. I would
be a dealer with a lot with a variety of homes to sell. They have
plans to develop this company to the point where "Sunovation" will be
as well known as Palm Harbor Homes.
They claim that this is the perfect time to get in the business
because of a "seven year business cycle" and the reconstruction
following four hurricanes in Florida this year. They mentioned several
articles which support the idea that Floridians will be replacing most
of the pre-1994 housing (Hurricane Andrew) with new and improved
housing. Also, mention was made by a Federal big wig, that Americans
will be turning more and more to affordable housing such as
manufactured and modular homes.
Can you help provide insight into this industry and its' future? The
capital outlay is very minimal but I would like more information
before I proceed.
Please email me with any questions.
Thanks |
Clarification of Question by
johnster-ga
on
10 Feb 2005 16:28 PST
I would like Hummer-ga to answer this if possible.
I am looking for any information on manufactured homes, their markets,
future markets, etc. (general information) to help in my decision. I'm
not looking for someone to make my decision, but someone who can
provide a good deal of information in the manufacturing and sales
sectors of these homes as possible;
particularly in Florida.
Please ask any questions or ask for clarifications.
Thanks
Johnster
|
Request for Question Clarification by
hummer-ga
on
10 Feb 2005 20:00 PST
Hi johnster! It's so good to hear from you and to hear about what
you've been up to. I'll have a look at your question Friday and let
you know how it goes. Hmm, I don't remember Sunovation being on our
franchise list - you've been busy 8-)
Till tomorrow -
hummer
|
Clarification of Question by
johnster-ga
on
11 Feb 2005 10:12 PST
Hi Hummer,
what information do you need?
Please advise.
By the way, Sunovation is a company that just started a year or two
ago. They don't have their website up yet but they're planning big
things. Also, they have some pretty heavy weight prinicipals who were
three star generals and other government big wigs.
Please contact me.
John
|
Request for Question Clarification by
hummer-ga
on
11 Feb 2005 12:48 PST
Hi John,
Don't worry, I'm here and have been working on your question.
How did you come to find out about this company? Where is it
headquartered? Is the franchise up and running?
hummer
|
Request for Question Clarification by
hummer-ga
on
11 Feb 2005 13:42 PST
Hi John,
Ok, time for some definitions. I just spent a great deal of time
working on "manufactured homes" for you, but I have a sinking feeling
I just wasted my time. What kind of units are you talking about?
Modular Homes
* Modular homes are built in modules at a factory.
* Modulars are built to conform to all state, local or regional
building codes at their destinations.
* Modules are transported to the home site on truck beds, then
joined together by local contractors.
* Local building inspectors check to make sure the structure meets
requirements and that finish work is done properly.
* Modular homes are sometimes less expensive per square foot than
site built homes.
* A well-built modular home should have the same longevity as its
site-built counterpart, increasing in value over time.
Manufactured Homes
* Formerly referred to as mobile homes or trailers.
* Manufactured homes are built in a factory.
* Conform to a Federal building code, called the HUD code, rather
than to building codes at their destinations.
* Homes are built on a non-removable steel chassis.
* Sections are transported to the home site on their own wheels.
* Multi-part units are joined at their destination.
* Segments are not always placed on a permanent foundation (more
difficult to re-finance).
* Building inspectors check the work done locally (electric hook
up, etc.) but are not required to approve the structure.
* Manufactured housing is generally less expensive than site built
and modular homes.
* Manufactured homes often decrease in value over time.
http://homebuying.about.com/cs/modulareducation/a/modularhomes.htm
It would also help to know who manufactures the units. Sunovation?
I'll take a break while I wait to hear back from you,
hummer
|
Clarification of Question by
johnster-ga
on
11 Feb 2005 13:45 PST
Hi Hummer,
The company is Sun Ovation Homes. It is very new and they have just
begun to issue franchises.
They are currently based in Lake Wales Florida. Some of the prinicpals
involved are LTG (R) Jay Garner, LTG (R) Gerald Putnam and Renee
Stroud who served as Deputy Director of Allied Command in Europe. She
was supposedly instrumental in Dr. Condoleeza's position as the
National Security advisor for President Bush.
If you have any more questions, please let me know.
One more thing, I was told that manufacturers of homes such as Palm
Harbor do not sell their own homes. All homes go through dealers such
as me. However, in pop-up ads, I've seen Palm Harbor advertisements.
Do manufacturers sell directly or do they go through dealers, as I've
been told.
Thanks
Johnster
|
Request for Question Clarification by
hummer-ga
on
11 Feb 2005 14:29 PST
John, please look at the definitions in my last clarification of
"Manufactured Homes" and "Modular Homes" and let me know which
definition applies to you.
Thanks, hummer
|
Clarification of Question by
johnster-ga
on
11 Feb 2005 15:05 PST
Hi Hummer,
You couldn't have gotten the definitions better.
Sun Ovation is a dealership. They do not manufacture the manufactured
homes themselves. Yes, they primarily deal in manufactured homes, the
second of your definitions, but sometimes they deal with modular
homes.
Sun Ovation , though, plans to have their own "parks" where these
homes go and eventually, their own manufacturing facility.
Sun Ovation primarily deals with four manufacturers including Horton
and Skyline homes. There are other manufacturers including Palm Harbor
(best known), Cadillac, and I believe Clayton.
Please write with any more questions. Manufactured homes do depreciate
unless they're on their own land. However, for many retired couples
(55 over) and young families on a tight budget, these homes offer
significant savings over from the ground homes.
Thanks
John
|
Clarification of Question by
johnster-ga
on
11 Feb 2005 15:16 PST
Hi Hummer,
Our are communications getting crossed?
I just wrote to say that Sun Ovation primarily sells manufactured
homes, the second of your definitions, but sometimes sells modular
homes, the first of your definitions.
Does that clear things up?
Thanks
Johnster
|
Request for Question Clarification by
hummer-ga
on
11 Feb 2005 15:40 PST
Yes, our communications crossed. Everything is fine. I'll continue
with my research and will be back in touch with you Saturday.
|
Clarification of Question by
johnster-ga
on
11 Feb 2005 17:04 PST
Thank you.
Johnster
|
Request for Question Clarification by
hummer-ga
on
12 Feb 2005 04:18 PST
Good morning, John,
A quick question - which county (or town/city) would you be set up in?
Thanks, hummer
|
Dear John,
Thank you for requesting my assistance - I hope the information that
I've found meets your expectations.
Definitions:
HUD-code" Manufactured (mobile) Homes
A manufactured home is defined as a movable dwelling, 8 feet or more
wide and 40 feet or more long, designed to be towed on its own
chassis, with transportation gear integral to the unit when it leaves
the factory, and without need of a permanent foundation. These homes
are built in accordance with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban
Development (HUD) building code. Since these units are typically not
covered by the building permits issued in local municipalities, they
are excluded from the New Residential Construction statistics.
http://www.census.gov/const/www/newresconstdoc.html
>>> BUREAU OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH, UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
1) Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties 29
Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida
"In the long run, housing demand is fundamentally a matter of
demographics. The forecasted slowdown in population growth, therefore,
ought to translate into a slowdown in housing starts as well. To be
sure, the demographic trend will be offset to some extent by demand
for second homes and a rising need to replace old and obsolescent
housing stock. However, instead of a gradual reduction in housing
starts over the long term, starts fluctuate between 142 and 149
thousand over the forecast horizon with a brief surge to 162 thousand
in 2011 (Figure 2). This surge is an artifact of the growth cycle
built into the national forecast."
Florida Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units,
except as noted)
STATE
Mobile Homes
2005: 922.9
2006: 933.5
2007: 943.8
2008: 953.5
2009: 963.4
2010: 973.2
2011: 983.0
2012: 992.6
2013: 1,001.7
2014: 1,011.1
2015: 1,020.4
COUNTY
Mobile Homes
[click on link - find your county]
http://www.bebr.ufl.edu/publications/Volume2-02.pdf
>>> US CENSUS BUREAU Census State Data Center
http://www.census.gov/sdc/www/
1) Manufactured Housing:
"These data are produced by the U.S. Commerce Department's Census
Bureau from a survey sponsored by the Department of Housing and Urban
Development."
http://www.census.gov/const/www/mhsindex.html
Comparison of Placements of New Manufactured Homes by Region and Size
of Home by region
http://www.census.gov/const/mhs/mhstabplcmnt.pdf
Florida 18,800 manufactured homes were placed in 1999.
http://www.census.gov/const/mhs/stplace99.pdf
Florida 13,300 manufactured homes were placed in 2000.
http://www.census.gov/const/mhs/stplace00.pdf
Florida 12,100 manufactured homes were placed in 2001.
http://www.census.gov/const/mhs/stplace01.pdf
Florida 11,600 manufactured homes were placed in 2002.
http://www.census.gov/const/mhs/stplace02.pdf
Florida 10,900 manufactured homes were placed in 2003.
http://www.census.gov/const/mhs/stplace03.pdf
More Manufactured Homes Placements going back to 1980:
http://www.census.gov/const/mhs/placbystate.html
2) Average Sale Price of Manufactured Homes in Florida going back to 1980:
http://www.census.gov/const/mhs/avgpricebystate.html
3) Characteristics of New Housing:
...history tables all seem to include "number of houses" & "percent distribution"
http://www.census.gov/const/www/charindex.html
Examples of history table under "Characteristics of New One-Family
Houses Completed":
Type of Construction Method of New One-Family Houses Completed
...1992-2003 sums for US, inside/outside metro ares, regions:
number, % distribution; site-built, modular, other(includes panelized
& precut units)
...modular most popular outside metro areas and NE region; least
popular in South & West
http://www.census.gov/const/C25Ann/sftotalconstmethod.pdf
Type of Construction Method of New One-Family Houses Completed:
Built For Sale (Built for Sale" are houses built with the intention of
being sold with the sale of the land included in the
transaction)
...same parameters as #1 above
http://www.census.gov/const/C25Ann/sfforsaleconstmethod.pdf
4) Florida:
...State Library of Florida offers online data services
...Center for the Study of Population
http://www.census.gov/sdc/www/flsdc.html
5) Pie Chart: % of US total housing units authorized by State for 2003:
FL 11% [213,567 total units - see map]
http://www.census.gov/const/www/03statepiechart.pdf
6) New Manufactured Homes Summary Measures:
http://www.census.gov/const/mhs/mhsvari.pdf
>>> FLORIDA HOUSING DATA CLEARINGHOUSE
1) Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse:
"...public access to data about housing needs and supply, subsidized
rental housing, and household demographics in Florida communities."
http://www.flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu/
Construction & Sales Data: Choose Your County:
http://www.flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu/cgi-bin/construction.pl
General Unit Characteristics: Choose Geographic Areas
http://www.flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu/apps/general_characteristics.pl
Population Projection by Age for 1990-2025
http://www.flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu/apps/DAT/ahna_pop_proj.pl
2) Manufactured Housing State of Florida 2000
Summary of Census data comparing household and unit characteristics of
manufactured housing in Florida with other types of housing; describes
distribution of manufactured housing among Florida counties.
http://www.flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu/publications/ManufacturedHousingReport.pdf
>>> FMHA & FMHOF & NMHC
1) FMHA (Florida Manufactured Housing Association):
http://www.fmha.org/about.html
Florida Manufactured Housing Association
Frank Williams, Executive Director
2958 Wellington Circle N., Suite 100
Tallahassee, FL 32308
Phone: (850) 907-9111
Fax: (850) 907-9119
Email: fmha@nettally.com
http://www.mobilehomeparkstore.com/mhp_associations.htm
2) FMHOF (Federation of Manufactured Home Owners of Florida):
P.O. Box 5350, Largo,
FL 33779-5350
727 530-7539
www.fmo.org
3) NMHC (National Modular Housing Council):
http://www.manufacturedhousing.org/modular_resources/
>>> SUN OVATION
Sun Ovation is not listed on the FMHA website:
http://www.fmha.org/manufacturers.html
Are Sunovation homes built to ASCE 7-88 wind standards?
"...Factory-built homes manufactured and sold in Florida meet criteria
based on the highest wind safety standard of them all, known as ASCE
7-88. Site-built homes must conform only to state or local
requirements for strength and wind-resistance.
...The design and construction of all Florida manufactured homes are
monitored through HUD and their agent, Housing and Building Technology
(HBT), and by the State Bureau of Manufactured Housing Construction,
insuring the highest quality and safety standards. You don't get this
assurance with any site-built homes."
http://www.fmha.org/homes.html
Better Business Bureau (nothing found for Sun Ovation):
http://search.bbb.org/results.html
Horton Homes
http://www.macon.bbb.org/commonreport.html?bid=6354
>>>
Palm Harbor Homes, Inc.
Corporate Profile:
"These homes are sold through its 136 Company-owned superstores and
more than 300 independent retailers."
http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/ir_site.zhtml?ticker=PHHM&script=100
>>> ARTICLES
1) Manufactured housing overview - Industry Overview - Statistical Data Included
COPYRIGHT 2002 www.frbatlanta.org
COPYRIGHT 2004 Gale Group
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0KXI/is_3_11/ai_84152075
2) Manufactured Housing And Its Impact on Seniors
Prepared for The Commission on Affordable Housing and Health Facility
Needs for Seniors in the 21st Century
Robert W. Wilden
Wilden and Associates, LLC
February 2002
VI. Current Trends in Manufactured Housing
"In 1998 there were over 400 plants in operation whereas in 2001 there
are less than 300 plants in operation."
http://www.seniorscommission.gov/pages/final_report/manufHouse.html
3) Prebuilt Homes Attract
Another Look from Buyers
By NICK BAKER
From Dow Jones Newswires
June 5, 2003 -- What a difference some drywall makes.
http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/salestrends/20030605-baker.html
4) Eight Trends Affecting Manufactured Housing...
Whether You Like It Or Not!
http://mfdhousing.com/steve_pappas/trends.shtml
5) T I M E B O N U S S E C T I O N O C T O B E R 2 0 0 4 : I N S
I D E B U S I N E S S / H O M E B U I L D I N G
Prefab Rehab
Star architects are adding style and substance to prefab homes as
manufacturers try to boost their share in a sizzling market
http://www.time.com/time/insidebiz/article/0,9171,1101040906-689458,00.html
6) Manufactured Housing Institute
Modular Shipments for 3rd Quarter 2004
MODULAR GROWTH CONTINUES STRONG IN THIRD QUARTER AT EXPECTED PACE
http://www.manufacturedhousing.org/lib/showtemp_detail.asp?id=425&cat=whats_hot
7) The Shimberg Center Volume XIII, Number 5 August 2003
"The Shimberg Center has published The State of Florida’s Housing,
2003 and the complete report is available in .pdf file form on the
Internet at www.shimberg.ufl.edu and by clicking in “Fla. Housing
Data.” Chapter 3 of the report is titled Florida’s Housing Supply
and was authored by Douglas White, economist with the Florida Housing
Data Clearinghouse, and Dr. Marc Smith, associate director of the
Shimberg Center. The highlights of that chapter addressing Florida’s
single-family housing stock are the subject of this edition of the
Affordable Housing ISSUES newsletter."
http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:-Ajdk9I1yYIJ:www.shimberg.ufl.edu/issues%2520newsletters/Newslet-Aug03.doc%25201+State+Bureau+of+Manufactured+Housing+florida&hl=en&client=firefox-a
8) Manufactured Housing Institute:
Housing Alert - Hurricane Charley
http://www.manufacturedhousing.org/lib/showtemp_detail.asp?id=401&cat=whats_hot
9) Looking Ahead
Manufactured Homes In 2000
Information provided by Manufactured Housing Institute, 2101 Wilson
Blvd., Suite 610, Arlington, VA 22201 (www.mfghome.org) and Florida
Manufactured Housing Association, 2958 Wellington Circle North, Suite
100, Tallahassee, FL 32308 (www.fmha.org).
http://www.mcxpress.com/Articles/Article.cfm?ID=99
>>> ADDITIONAL LINKS OF INTEREST
FL Dept of Community Affairs (Florida's land planning agency):
Community planning (implements the state's Growth Management Act,
etc); housing & community development.
http://www.dca.state.fl.us/
"Growth Management in Florida 2005" (recent symposium):
http://www.dca.state.fl.us/growthmanagement/
New Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits in
Permit-Issuing Places
Annual data, 1959-2004 summary by region
http://www.census.gov/const/bpann.pdf
MANUFACTURED HOUSING LINKS
http://www.mobilehome.net/links.htm
US Census Bureau - Building Permits Survey FAQ:
I. Definition Questions - Definitions for housing types
IV. Data Questions - Questions about the data available from survey
http://www.census.gov/const/www/permitsfaq.html
Building Permits data index
...permits by state, county, place, metro area; history tables
browsable by place and date
http://www.census.gov/const/www/permitsindex.html
New Residential Construction index:
...permits, starts, completions, history tables
http://www.census.gov/const/www/newresconstindex.html
New Privately Owned Housing Units Completed in the *South, by Intent
and Design (attached or detached)
...annual summary 1973-2003
http://www.census.gov/const/compssointenta.pdf
From a Santa Rosa County Building Inspection Dept. (Milton FL)
application for residential mobile
homes:
- Mobile Homes are identified by a sticker from the Department of
Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
- Modular Homes are identified by a sticker from the Department of
Community Affairs (DCA). HUD Homes and DCA Homes are distinctively
different units. For permits for DCA Homes, please use the Residential
Building Application.
http://www.santarosa.fl.gov/permits/forms/mbhres.pdf
PREFABRICATED HOUSING IN THE USA TO 2007 & 2012: $3800.00
http://www.wood-info.com/1045.htm
Alittle out-of-date but it makes some good points. For example,
Manufactured home parks
http://www.a-spi.org/tp/tp45.htm
MANUFACTURED HOME OWNER'S BILL OF RIGHTS (Senate - October 04, 1990)
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?r101:S04OC0-43:
As always, I hope this is what you were hoping for - please let me
know if you have any questions.
Thank you,
hummer
Google Search Terms Used:
"modular homes" florida site:.gov > 85 returns
"modular homes" florida site:.org > 4150
"manufactured homes" florida site:.gov > 840
"manufactured homes" florida site:.org > 14,200
modular prefabricated manufactured mobile florida site:.gov > 94
modular prefabricated manufactured mobile florida site:.org > 196
"manufactured homes" florida prospects > 1920
"manufactured homes" florida prospectus > 251
"manufactured homes" florida market trends
"manufactured homes" florida forcasts
"manufactured homes" florida statistics
"manufactured homes" florida market
"manufactured homes" florida market outlook
"mobile homes" florida outlook
etc. |
Request for Answer Clarification by
johnster-ga
on
12 Feb 2005 14:54 PST
Hi Hummer,
I'm sorry to not have answered your last question but I've been out.
As for your last question, they have asked me what sites I'd be
interested in and the most likely are the Tampa-St. Pete area or
Sarasota/Bradenton. Also, these sites would be in semi-rural or rural
areas around those areas. Manufactured homes are not found in the
larger of the cities.
As far as your answer, you have provided multiple sites to look at and
I appreciate it and will look at those...but, alas... is there a sort
of summary or analysis that you could provide that speaks to my
original question? Are there conclusions that you or I might draw from
this information?
Please advise.
Johnster
|
Clarification of Answer by
hummer-ga
on
12 Feb 2005 15:04 PST
Hi John,
I specifically stayed away from making any kind of conclusions because you said:
"I am looking for any information on manufactured homes, their markets,
future markets, etc. (general information) to help in my decision. I'm
not looking for someone to make my decision, but someone who can
provide a good deal of information in the manufacturing and sales
sectors of these homes as possible;
particularly in Florida."
So I tried to provide a good deal of information for you to mull over
without inserting my opinions. I'll gladly give them, as long as you
asked 8-) , though it probably won't be until Sunday.
Regards,
hummer
|
Request for Answer Clarification by
johnster-ga
on
12 Feb 2005 15:19 PST
Hi Hummer,
I was being "PC" by not asking for an opinion or conclusion.
I know that Google and its' representatives aren't supposed to try to
"diagnose" "you", "me" , whatever, so I thought I would keep my
question as basic as possible.
I would appreciate hearing from you , however, if you have some
thoughts, opinions, ideas, etc. on this matter.
Thanks
Johnster
|
Clarification of Answer by
hummer-ga
on
13 Feb 2005 07:46 PST
John, the most important person is you and how you feel about the
proposal. It would, at the very least, give you a foot hold in Florida
(your first choice) and give you an chance to keep your eyes open for
other opportunities in case this one doesn't work out. As long as you
can afford it and you wouldn't be risking your life's savings, as long
as you feel positive and excited about it and not worried with a sense
of foreboding, as long as you keep a level head and realize it *is* a
risk and have a back-up plan "just in case", it's probably ok to take
the next step and see where it leads. However, I think it *is* a risk
- realistically, it is much easier to find reasons why you shouldn't
do it rather than why you should do it.
1) There is no track record for Sun Ovation, therefore it would
require a leap of faith to hand over your hard earned dollars to them.
I'm a bit worried that "I was told that manufacturers of homes such as
Palm Harbor do not sell their own homes. All homes go through dealers
such as me" because that's not true according to the following link.
Palm Harbor Homes, Inc.
Corporate Profile:
"These homes are sold through its 136 Company-owned superstores and
more than 300 independent retailers."
http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/ir_site.zhtml?ticker=PHHM&script=100
2) Sales of Manufactured Homes continue to decline.
Manufactured homes don?t share in housing boom
http://www.randomlengths.com/pdf/yardstick.pdf
Palm Harbor Homes reports 3Q loss January 18, 2005:
"Palm Harbor Homes Inc. on Tuesday reported a net loss for the third
quarter, as the company took charges for closing a production line in
Texas and 12 other retail sales centers."
http://dallas.bizjournals.com/dallas/stories/2005/01/17/daily19.html
Palm Harbor Homes news reports:
http://news.surfwax.com/biz/files/Palm_Harbor_Homes.html
VI. Current Trends in Manufactured Housing
"In 1998 there were over 400 plants in operation whereas in 2001 there
are less than 300 plants in operation."
http://www.seniorscommission.gov/pages/final_report/manufHouse.html
3) Mobile home *parks* are also declining.
The Other Side of Manfufactured Housing: Fall 2003
"In Florida, mobile home park closings in the last three years have
displaced 3,000 households."
http://www.nw.org/network/pubs/brightIdeas/documents/featureStoriesFall2003.pdf
"To live in a trailer park like Gulfstream, one of more than 2,600 in
Florida, is to occupy a precarious niche in the housing system.
Residents at Gulfstream own their homes, which cost $10,000 to
$40,000, but rent the land. Most homes are mobile in name only, too
old or anchored to survive a move. As the value of real estate
skyrocketed through the 1990's, park owners found they could make more
redeveloping the land for houses or condominiums or selling to
redevelopers."
"Most of the parks being redeveloped, he said, were built more than 30
years ago. "The economics no longer work" for park owners, he said. If
buyers see an old community suddenly being surrounded by supermarkets
and upscale developments, Mr. Williams said, "a light bulb should go
off," adding, "But if they're moving into a modern retirement
community, the chances of change are almost nil."
"There are no official statistics on park age. Al Hesselbart, a
historian of manufactured housing and recreational vehicles, estimates
that about half of Florida's mobile home parks are more than 30 years
old. He added that many of them would not be candidates for
redevelopment. "
http://www.csudh.edu/dearhabermas/landbk01.htm
4) The weather. Some things you have control over but the weather
isn't one of them. I don't think the public will change their negative
attitudes about the safety of mobile homes in a storm any time soon.
Other things to think about is what will happen to insurance
rates/policies and the ever evolving Federal/State regulations in the
future - how will they effect the market?
The good news... the aging population and their track history for
buying manufactured homes.
Population Projection by Age for 1990-2025
http://www.flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu/apps/DAT/ahna_pop_proj.pl
So you can probably guess what I would do - my enthusiasm would have
to be great enough to overcome everything else. If you decide to move
forward, please remain cautious, read *everything* down to the tiniest
printing, and hire your own lawyer to advocate on your behalf (don't
rely on their's).
Here's an interesting link:
Appraisal Guidelines:
18. Manufactured Homes
http://www.oomc.com/business_partners/appraisal/appraisal_guidelines.asp
Sincerely,
hummer
|
Request for Answer Clarification by
johnster-ga
on
13 Feb 2005 13:15 PST
Hi Hummer,
I appreciate all of the information and advice.
I will be leaving shortly (few minutes) and won't be back till Monday night.
On Tuesday, I'll review the information and will most likely give you
five stars and a generous tip. Please be patient.
Thank you very much.
Johnster
|
Clarification of Answer by
hummer-ga
on
14 Feb 2005 08:20 PST
That's fine, John, take your time. Patience is my middle name 8-)
hummer
|
Request for Answer Clarification by
johnster-ga
on
15 Feb 2005 17:25 PST
Hi Hummer,
Before I sign off your research, I would like to add a few things that
may or may not alter your opinion of this industry.
First, Sun Ovation is a new company (over a year old) but they do have
some pretty impressive officers and buyers.
Since 1994, after Hurricane Andrew, manufactured housing has had to
re-invent itself and meet a variety of new standards. None of the
homes Sun Ovation represents were significantly damaged in the four
hurricanes that swept Florida this past year. In fact, most came away
without a scratch.
If you've looked at the Palm Harbor site, you can see the quality of
homes that they're building. Many of them have most of the interior
features of non-sectional housing and more.
The people who showed me various homes and parks said this is the time
to enter the business because it is the beginning of a seven year
cycle. From the one report I read, in your opinion, the downturn
occured in 1998 and since we're now in 2005, it would stand to reason
that there are seven year cycles.
Also, they're betting heavily on the replacement of pre-1994 homes and
the homes that were destroyed in the hurricanes this past year. Also,
retiring baby-boomers are coming to Florida and will require very
affordable housing.
Again, some of these homes are half the price of a comparable non-sectioned home.
Hummer, is there anything in the information you provided that would
back up their statements concerning seven year cycles and a bonanza to
come for at least the next few years? Florida is a different animal
than some other states.
Hummer, if it seems I want you to change your opinion, I don't. I
would like you to see if there is information that might support their
claims in all of the information you provided.
By the way, the capital outlay is minimal compared to many other
franchises. The model homes will be invnetoried by the parent company.
Also, I intend to ask them about the manufacturers not selling their
own homes. I toured model homes at a factory and they could have meant
at the factory sites where they don't sell models.
Hummer, please advise. After this I'll leave you off the hook, grade
you and pay you.
Johnster
Hummer, please
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Request for Answer Clarification by
johnster-ga
on
16 Feb 2005 08:33 PST
Hi Hummer,
If you want me to close off the question, please let me know.
I'm not intending to drag this out and if you would like to shut it down now,
I'd be agreeable.
Do you see my last question or have any last remarks regarding this question.
Please advise.
John
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Clarification of Answer by
hummer-ga
on
16 Feb 2005 08:42 PST
Hi John,
I've been preparing a response but I have to leave the keyboard for
most of the rest of the day. I'm sorry, I know you are anxious to hear
from me. Don't close the question, we aren't finished yet. I'll try
hard to post again this evening.
hummer
|
Clarification of Answer by
hummer-ga
on
16 Feb 2005 17:59 PST
Dear John,
"Hummer, is there anything in the information you provided that would
back up their statements concerning seven year cycles and a bonanza to
come for at least the next few years? Florida is a different animal
than some other states."
What seven year cycle would that be? Here are the figures from the US
Census Bureau:
Florida: New Manufactured Homes Placed:
downward - 3 yrs
1980: 29,900
1981: 25,700
1982: 23,500
upward - 2 yrs
1983: 30,500
1984: 31,100
downward - 4 yrs
1985: 29,800
1986: 25,700
1987: 25,600
1988: 23,300
upward - 1 yrs
1989: 23,400
downward - 2 yrs
1990: 18,600
1991: 14,600
upward - 1 yrs
1992: 19,900
downward - 2 yrs
1993: 17,700
1994: 16,800
upward - 4
1995: 19,100
1996: 20,600
1997: 21,600
1998: 24,100
downward - 5 yrs
1999: 18,800
2000: 13,300
2001: 12,100
2002: 11,600
2003: 10,900
http://www.census.gov/const/mhs/placbystate.html
John, the next time they mention a seven year cycle, ask them to give
you a copy of their data. I bet that, if they actually produce
something, that it will be something from within the business (real
estate, etc) and not from the Census Bureau.
Also, they're betting heavily on the replacement of pre-1994 homes and
the homes that were destroyed in the hurricanes this past year. Also,
retiring baby-boomers are coming to Florida and will require very
affordable housing.
Again, some of these homes are half the price of a comparable non-sectioned home.
I believe that the majority of old homes will not be replaced. They
were bought new by seniors who are now moving to either nursing homes
are passing on to the next life. Their kids are not going to replace
those old homes.
The only positive side that I see are all of the baby boomers coming
up in about ten years (who I've heard, by the way, will be far richer
than any previous group of seniors - they may not be looking for lower
cost housing).
If you've looked at the Palm Harbor site, you can see the quality of
homes that they're building. Many of them have most of the interior
features of non-sectional housing and more.
Yes, but John, they are filing net losses and closing outlets (see
previous link: "Palm Harbor Homes reports 3Q loss January 18, 2005").
John, here is what I think. If selling mobile homes is something you
*want* to do, something that you will enjoy on a day-to-day basis,
then seriously consider it as long as you know that it is risky. But
if you are really looking at it in a financial/profit way first,
without giving much importance to your own likes and talents, then
please re-evaluate.
Another interesting link:
Building America Industrialized Housing Partnership (BAIHP)
http://www.fsec.ucf.edu/bldg/baihp/pubs/techserv/
Whatever you decide to do, I just want you to be happy doing it and
hopefully, the rest will fall into place.
Sincerely,
hummer
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