Clarification of Answer by
hummer-ga
on
16 Mar 2005 12:01 PST
Hi John,
You can view what all the abbreviations mean starting on page 498:
...
Data Dictionary: Page 498:
K: Residential housing stock
KF: Single-family and multifamily housing stock
KMH: Mobile home stock
L: Civilian labor force
M: Net migration
MFS: Private housing starts, multifamily
etc.
>>> Forecasts
I don't believe you will find a better, free, unbiased forecast for
the state of Florida than the BEBR. You might try calling them to ask
if they are planning to publish updates.
I found the following report interesting, especially, "We believe that
modular housing is a key driver of our future growth and
profitability."
Form 10-Q for PALM HARBOR HOMES INC /FL/
1-Nov-2004
Quarterly Report
Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition
and Results of Operations
Executive Overview
"We continue to position ourselves strategically for the recovery of
the industry by focusing on increasing sales of our modular homes.
Sales of our modular homes were up 20% in the second quarter of fiscal
2005 as compared to the second quarter of fiscal 2004 and our
Discovery series of modular homes is getting a lot of attention in the
marketplace. We believe that modular housing is a key driver of our
future growth and profitability.
"Our retail customers generally secure financing from third party
lenders, which have been negatively affected by adverse loan
experience. Conseco Finance Servicing Corp. and The Associates, which
had provided financing for our customers, have withdrawn from the
manufactured housing finance business. Reduced availability of such
financing is currently having an adverse effect on the manufactured
housing business and our home sales. Availability of financing is
dependent on the lending practices of financial institutions,
financial markets, governmental policies and economic conditions, all
of which are largely beyond our control. Quasi-governmental agencies
such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are important purchasers of
loans from financial institutions, have tightened standards relating
to the manufactured housing loans that they will buy. Most states
classify manufactured homes as personal property rather than real
property for purposes of taxation and lien perfection, and interest
rates for manufactured homes are generally higher and the terms of the
loans shorter than for site-built homes. Financing for the purchase of
manufactured homes is often more difficult to obtain than conventional
home mortgages. There can be no assurance that affordable retail
financing for manufactured homes will continue to be available on a
widespread basis. If third party financing were to become unavailable
or were to be further restricted, this could have a material adverse
effect on our results of operations."
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/041101/phhm10-q.html
The Independent Community Bankers of America
Housing Goals for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
July 16, 2004
HUD Should Encourage Redevelopment of Secondary Market for Manufactured Housing
"One area in particular where we believe the GSEs should play a strong
leadership role is in the redevelopment of the market for mortgages
financing manufactured housing. In many parts of the country,
manufactured housing is a very important source of affordable housing.
For example, in New Mexico, manufactured housing constitutes more than
half of all homes. States located in the southeastern portion of the
United States are similarly dependent on this type of affordable
housing. Yet financing for these homes is difficult for a variety of
reasons that are challenging for individual lenders to address.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have an important role to play in
revitalizing the secondary market for manufactured housing mortgages.
They have the expertise and experience in the secondary market and the
national perspective needed to promote financing for this important
type of affordable housing. ICBA urges HUD to encourage the GSEs to do
more to make the secondary market for manufactured housing mortgages
viable."
http://www.icba.org/advocacy/commentlettersdetail.cfm?sn.itemnumber=1711&itemnumber=677&pf=1
Prefabricated Housing
Pub Time: 2003/10
"US demand for prefabricated housing, including manufactured housing
(single-section and multisection), modular, precut and panelized
housing, is forecast to increase 1.1 percent annually through 2007 to
274,000 units."
http://www.the-infoshop.com/study/fd16117_prefabricated_housing.html
"The only segment of the housing market that has answered the call for
affordable units is the mobile/manufactured housing industry. Mobile
homes, both in planned communities and sold as individual units, have
the largest market share in the affordable category, because they are
generally less expensive than conventional housing and often require
as little down payment as a car, but they present unique problems in
the Region. Ineffective local policies governing the placement of
mobile homes, which are reinforced by the State's misplaced assumption
that permissive regulations and minimum infrastructure makes them
affordable housing, only adds to the depreciation of the housing stock
in Central Florida counties. In addition, the spread of mobile homes
dramatically increases the risk of storm damage to a growing portion
of the population. Mobile home communities, which are generally safer
than individually sited units due to tougher development standards,
are not being developed to meet the demand for affordable units among
the two groups who need them the most: the farm workers and the low
income wage earners."
http://www.cfrpc.org/srpp.html
>>> Fee-based Reports
MANUFACTURED HOUSING SUPPLY & DEMAND (thousand units) 1992-2012 ($40.00)
http://freedonia.ecnext.com/coms2/summary__0001_001742_000000_000000_0001_1
"Snapshots' US Manufactured Homes (Prefabricated Houses) 2004 report
provides 2003 year-end market data, with 2004 estimates and five-year
forecasts. The report gives an instant overview of the US manufactured
homes market, and covers prefabricated houses. The data is supplied in
both graphical and tabular format for ease of interpretation and
analysis. US Manufactured Homes (Prefabricated Houses) 2004 forms part
of Snapshots' Construction industry coverage."
http://www.biz-lib.com/ZSN77317.html
45393 - Manufactured (Mobile) Home Dealers in the US
Forecast to: 2008
Major Players Referenced:
Clayton Homes, Inc.
Champion Enterprises, Inc.
Reorganized Sale OKWD, Inc.
Palm Harbor Homes, Inc.
Fleetwood Enterprises, Inc.
$495.00
"IBISWorld research reports contain trends, statistics and analysis on
market size, market share of competitors and industry growth rates.
Major market segments are identified and also those forces affecting
demand and supply within the industry. Performance analysis includes
emerging industry trends as well as recent production performance.
Drawing on the depth of information IBISWorld also provides 5 year
forecasts for each industry.
Each comprehensive study also examines details such as; the barriers
to entry, operating cost structure (industry averages), technology &
systems and domestic & international markets. Tables and statistics
include: Industry revenue, exports, imports, wages and number of
companies in the industry. Industry growth and geographic location.
The entire collection is used by leading financial institutions and
for strategic assessment of the entire economy but is also ideal for
small business, information for business planning, valuations,
start-ups or other strategic reviews."
http://www.ibisworld.com/industry/definition.asp?industry_id=1105
I hope contacting the BEBR will prove fruitful.
Regards,
hummer
