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Subject:
Best investments during the Depression of the 1930s
Category: Business and Money Asked by: dubsmaze-ga List Price: $10.00 |
Posted:
20 Mar 2005 16:46 PST
Expires: 19 Apr 2005 17:46 PDT Question ID: 497739 |
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There is no answer at this time. |
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Subject:
Re: Best investments during the Depression of the 1930s
From: omnivorous-ga on 20 Mar 2005 17:28 PST |
Dubsmaze -- Probably the best way to attack this is to go back to Standard & Poor's sector data for the time. However, it won't be a very fine analysis as it would likely miss emerging industries. I do know that electronics were hot investments as the 1930s wore on -- particularly radio, which was state-of-the-art at the time. Zenith Radio emerged as a leading producer: its stock languished until 1935 when it went from the range of 2-2 5/8 at the beginning of the year to 13 1/2 at the end of the year. This earlier Google Answer is a good reflection of the era and the market growth being experienced for radio: "Radio Set Ownership in NY City, 1938," (Omnivorous-GA, Jan. 22, 2003) http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=144290 Best regards, Omnivorous-GA |
Subject:
Re: Best investments during the Depression of the 1930s
From: financeeco-ga on 21 Mar 2005 00:41 PST |
You need to keep survivor bias in mind. Especially with older indexes, sector returns can be very overstated due to how they treat bankrupcies. I would do detailed research before taking Depression-era return data at face value. |
Subject:
Re: Best investments during the Depression of the 1930s
From: neilzero-ga on 21 Mar 2005 04:53 PST |
Many items, including stocks, reached a historic low in the early 30s. Some never recovered, but others doubled from their low before the end of the thirties. We could be in a good buying position later this year. I think large increases are unlikely from today's position. Selling short would be smart before a crash later this year, but there is a fair chance weak prosparity will continue several more years, resulting in large losses for short sellers. So many things have changed since the 30s, I don't think we can learn much, except that a disasterous crash is possible. Neil |
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