I am looking for revenues figures for past six years and projections
for the next four years for the mobile telecommunication services by
company, e.i. for Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobil, etc.  The sales figures
should include only the cell phone voice services and sale of cell
phones but exclude wireless data network services, service contracts
and other revenue sources.

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Request for Question Clarification by jbf777-ga on 04 Apr 2005 10:46 PDT

Would you be willing to accept a link to a fee-based report that would
contain this information?

jbf777

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Clarification of Question by alex100-ga on 05 Apr 2005 07:57 PDT

A link to a fee-based report is not accepted as an answer.

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Request for Question Clarification by jbf777-ga on 05 Apr 2005 12:07 PDT

Hello -

I believe I would be able to obtain historical sales data for each
company.  However, projections for each company are unavailable.  I
might be able to find a number that projects the industry as a whole.
Would you be interested in this?

jbf777

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Clarification of Question by alex100-ga on 06 Apr 2005 05:47 PDT

Hello jbf777 --

Yes, the historical data for each company and the projections for the
industry as a whole will be acceptable.

alex100-ga

I?ve provided data for the following companies:

AT&T Wireless
Sprint PCS
T-Mobile
Verizon Wireless
Cingular
Nextel
Alltel

These companies combined to serve about 86% of U.S. wireless customers
in 2004. Of course, mergers complicate the picture. Cingular acquired
AT&T Wireless last year, and the Sprint PCS/Nextel deal should be
approved later this year. I have AT&T Wireless historical data through
2003, and the Cingular numbers for 2004 and beyond include the AT&T
Wireless Contribution. However, for purposes of clarity with
historical numbers and estimates, and out of respect for the fact that
the merger has not yet closed, I?ve listed the data for Nextel and
Sprint PCS separately, ignoring the merger.

Regarding historical data, very few wireless companies reported data
revenues separately from voice revenues before 2002. However, none of
the wireless companies for which I?ve gathered data generated more
than 3% of their revenue from services other than traditional voice in
2002, and the technology was definitely in its early stages. So I?ve
assumed 1% of service revenue is from data in 2001, 0.5% is from data
in 2000, and no data revenue in 1999. I was unable to get usable
historical numbers from T-Mobile because of accounting vagaries and
currency translation.

Regarding estimates, I looked at estimates from analysts and formed my
own ?consensus? based on two or three opinions. Please realize there
is a lot of variation in the estimates, as there is little agreement
about the state of the wireless market.

Stats are below.

V

Actual Revenue					Estimated Revenue			
1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
											
AT&T Wireless	

Voice	
$6,823	$9,327	$12,407	$14,193	$14,719					
Equipment	
$804	$1,072	$1,078	$1,148	$1,036					

Sprint PCS	

Voice	
$2,921	$5,464	$8,338	$10,462	$10,768	$11,590	$12,006	$12,189	$12,245	$12,229
Equipment	
$452	$850	$1,303	$1,402	$1,143	$1,510	$1,515	$1,467	$1,480	$1,465

T-Mobile
	
Voice	
NA	NA	NA	$9,876	$14,471	$19,654	$21,710	$22,556	$22,434	$22,079
Equipment	
NA	NA	NA	$1,693	$2,349	$3,399	$3,696	$3,785	$3,851	$3,917

Verizon Wireless
	
Voice	
$7,882	$14,130	$16,960	$17,516	$19,887	$23,375	$25,713	$27,335	$28,470	$29,664
Equipment	
$745	$1,343	$1,620	$1,513	$2,153	$3,262	$3,657	$3,720	$3,662	$3,544

Cingular Wireless	

Voice	
$0	$2,791	$12,848	$13,569	$13,853	$16,749	$26,854	$27,555	$27,660	$27,441
Equipment	
$0	$218	$1,010	$980	$1,260	$1,963	$3,357	$3,309	$3,315	$3,261

Nextel	

Voice	
$3,540	$5,317	$7,118	$8,634	$10,534	$12,678	$13,806	$14,702	$15,059	$14,970
Equipment	
$246	$371	$499	$560	$993	$1,520	$1,636	$1,596	$1,567	$1,539

Alltel	

Voice	
$2,912	$3,333	$3,603	$3,879	$4,431	$4,719	$4,858	$5,068	$5,011	$4,920
Equipment	
$121	$187	$192	$161	$261	$287	$293	$282	$302	$310

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Request for Answer Clarification by alex100-ga on 14 Apr 2005 17:36 PDT

This looks great!  Thanks a lot!

I have one questions: Is the Cingular's acquisition of AT&T Wireless a
done deal?  I was under the impression that is was still not closed...

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Clarification of Answer by vercingatorix-ga on 14 Apr 2005 21:16 PDT

The deal closed last October. Check out the story at
http://www.nwfusion.com/edge/news/2004/1026cingatt.html.

V

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Request for Answer Clarification by alex100-ga on 15 Apr 2005 11:54 PDT

Thanks for the article.

In the meantime I tried to do some spot checking on the integrity of
the data and notice the following:  in your table, in 2004, Verizon
has total revenues (eq. + voice) of $26,637. Since Verizon Wireless
offers other services as well, such as DSL, one would expect their
total revenies to be in exsess of your number.  However, Verizon on
the their website says "Annual Revenue 2004 $24.4 Billion" How do you
understand this discrepance?

Also, in 2003 your numbers for total revenues for AT&T and T-Mobile
are respectively $15,755 and $16,820. After the merger, the total
revenues should have been over $30 billion.  You, however, only show
$23 billion for the T-Mobile in 2004. What am I missing?
A.

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Clarification of Answer by vercingatorix-ga on 15 Apr 2005 13:52 PDT

Regarding Verizon Wireless, I don't know where on the Web site you
found the $24.4 billion, but I can tell you what it means. I
double-checked Verizon Wireless?s SEC filing data
(http://investor.verizon.com/SEC/ed_sec_frame.cgi?fid=3535153) and
confirmed that service revenue totaled $24.4 billion for the year, of
which $23.375 billion was voice and $1.025 billion was data. The
number you saw must have referred just to service revenue.

As for the AT&T Wireless/Cingular merger, I skipped a step and didn?t
realize it. Sorry about that ? I?ll fix the problem now.

The 2004 figures for Cingular include AT&T Wireless' contribution only
for the last months of the year, after the deal closed on Oct. 26.
However, AT&T Wireless certainly generated revenues during the period
before that. Unfortunately, since the merger was finalized after the
September quarter but before the due date for quarterly filings with
the SEC, AT&T Wireless never filed its 10-Q, which would have provided
the year-to-date numbers you desire.

I reviewed Cingular?s financial filings and determined that the
company did not provide pro forma data on what the company?s revenue
or income would have been had the merger taken place at the start of
the year, which requires combining their operations for the months
prior to the merger. Many companies provide that data, but they are
not required to do so, and Cingular did not.

Unfortunately, AT&T Wireless? September-quarter statistics are simply
not available, at least not through any of the normal channels. If
they didn?t file with the SEC, then its' likely that nobody outside of
Cingular?s accounting department knows what the results are. However,
I have bootstrapped a solution for you.

I gathered numbers for the first six months of the year from AT&T
Wireless?s SEC filing for the first half of the year and inflated them
to reflect the additional 117 days between the end of June and October
25. It?s an imperfect solution, but one that should be accurate enough
to satisfy anyone but an auditor. The numbers will not reflect any
change in the revenue-growth rate during the last 117 days before the
merger, but any such vagaries are not likely to be large for a
business like wireless service, which is not exceptionally seasonal
during the first 10 months of the year.

Rather than alter numbers on the chart and mesh the data with
Cingular?s data, I?ll present AT&T Wireless? data for the first 299
days of 2004 separately.

Premerger 2004:

Service revenue: $10,812 million.
Equipment revenue: $1,112 million.

These numbers reflect a slight decline in service revenues relative to
2003 (on an annualized basis) and a substantial increase in equipment
revenue, which the company attributed to ?higher average revenue per
unit sold and an increase in handsets sold versus the prior year
periods,? according to the 10-Q filing.

Again, sorry about the oversight. 

V

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Request for Answer Clarification by alex100-ga on 02 May 2005 16:58 PDT

Dear vercingatorix-ga,

Although this question is already answered, I need a further
clarification: the same data but for digital cell phones only.  Going
forward, practically all cell phones sold today are digital, so the
forecast will not be affected.  However, the past revenues will be
affected as the companies made the transiontion from analog phones to
digital. How difficult would it be to update your spreadsheet for
digital services only?  I'd be happy to post this as a new question so
that I can pay for this info.

Regards,
Alex

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Clarification of Answer by vercingatorix-ga on 02 May 2005 17:47 PDT

I'd love to answer this for you, but in my research I learned that
these companies do not break down their revenue in such detail, at
least not for public consumption. The information you seek is not
available in company SEC filings except in bits and pieces. Perhaps
someone else could do a better job if they have sources other than the
ones I use.

Sorry I can't help you.

V

Great research and analysis.  Prompt and exhaustive clarifications to
questions. Great value and pleasant experience. Thank you,
vercingatorix-ga! Highly recommended.