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Q: stock market ( No Answer,   6 Comments )
Question  
Subject: stock market
Category: Business and Money > Consulting
Asked by: 211563-ga
List Price: $10.00
Posted: 09 Apr 2005 13:40 PDT
Expires: 16 Apr 2005 14:02 PDT
Question ID: 507245
I know there are stock market advisory services out there but I don't
know who they are.  If I did, I would ask this question:  The price of
oil has dropped somewhat in the last few days. If the price of oit
rises substantially, what stocks or groups of stocks will benefit the
most and the price of those stocks should rise.
Answer  
There is no answer at this time.

Comments  
Subject: Re: stock market
From: pinkfreud-ga on 09 Apr 2005 13:58 PDT
 
Randy,

I am not well versed in the mysteries of the stock market, but I did
find one tip for you that sounds good:

"Last week we saw a huge rally in oil stocks. Out favorite oil stock,
Suncor, rallied 10% over Thursday and Friday to close at an all-time
high of $41.50. If you've been reading the past few weeks, you should
already have a position in this stock.

We want to add another Canadian recommendation today. That's Petro
Canada (PCZ). Why? It has a very low P/E of 11. Also, it has hit its
trendline in a nice uptrend, and it also has an interest in the
Athabasca Oil Sands, the largest oil reserve in the world. With a P/E
that low, an increased demand for the stock could drive that P/E up to
15 easily. That would mean a 50% gain in the stock.

You may ask why we like the oil sands stocks so much. Well, besides
their involvement in the biggest reserve in the world, it costs a few
more dollars per barrel in order to separate the sand from the oil.
You see, the oil is trapped in the sand. So, as the price of oil
rises, this few dollars per barrel becomes less and less significant
to these operators. So, as the price of oil rises, these stocks should
rise more than standard operators. And, we are bullish on the price of
oil."

http://www.stockpickreport.com/index.php
Subject: Re: stock market
From: frde-ga on 10 Apr 2005 04:26 PDT
 
I must point out that any stock with a P/E of 11
- is a bit like a bond yielding 20%

The trouble with stocks was well described by Keynes

 - it is like trying to decide who the /judges/ will choose as the
winner of a beauty pageant

If oil prices really do rise substantially (not just the headline spot
rate) then the companies set to make shedloads are the majors. Shell
and BP have reported awesome profits.

Rationally the next in line should be exploration companies with
proven reserves that can be sold to the majors - so that their
depletion figures look good. With good profits the majors can afford
to 'reinvest'.

Rationally also, one would expect alternatives to oil to rise, say
hydroelectric utilities.

Sadly, the best strategy is almost certainly to identify the major
stock 'promoters'
- follow them in, and get out before the peak.

Alternatively, start hyping selected stocks on forums like the Motley Fool
Subject: Re: stock market
From: 211563-ga on 10 Apr 2005 08:25 PDT
 
It is obvious the person that added the comment knows what they are
talking about....thanks for the advice.....
Subject: Re: stock market
From: 211563-ga on 10 Apr 2005 08:26 PDT
 
on the exploration companies, any favorites?
Subject: Re: stock market
From: 211563-ga on 10 Apr 2005 08:28 PDT
 
I know a guy that works for aramco out of texas and he goes over to
the oil fields and these guys seem to know what they are talking about
and he says there will be a temporarily lull in prices them look for
$75 a barrell....
Subject: Re: stock market
From: frde-ga on 10 Apr 2005 23:58 PDT
 
My guess is that your Aramco friend is about right.

Low oil prices are not in the interest of most of the players involved.
Provided there is no major shock (as there was in the 1970's) prices
could be 'managed higher'.

As for exploration companies, I would look for companies that have
been around some time, and have good 'contacts' with the local
governments.
Newly established companies would tend to be stock market hypes
This is a recent one that looks suspicious

http://www.splmtoday.com/modules.php?name=News&file=print&sid=6869

My gut feel is that the majors will be buying reserves rather than
immediate production - but I doubt that they will be after totally
'green fields'.

Hmm... one to think about.

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