Hi there katten,
I knew I was forgetting a wagering/odds site.
It is:
[ http://www.tvg.com/ ]
You will have to get a login to access their
information but you may find it worthwhile.
The additional info I wanted to get was from
that site but I can't verify it for the Kentucky
Derby because the data was not up yet.
You can however experiment with current races.
It involves TVG's Handicapping. When you bring
up a race, it starts on the pools tab: (I took some
screenshots so you don't have to go through the
motions of signing up just to see)
[ http://www.alienintelligence.net/GA/507329/TVG1.jpg ]
From there you click on Handicapping:
[ http://www.alienintelligence.net/GA/507329/TVG2.jpg ]
Sometimes one of the top 3 or the top pick
horse will have a longshot statement next to
it. I have seen a large majority of those longshots
hit. It does get better though. If you click on
the Handicapping tab, on the drop-down menu,
select Snap Shot.
[ http://www.alienintelligence.net/GA/507329/TVG3.jpg ]
This new listing of the horses in the current
race has a column called Power Rating. This
is a rating created by TVG's oddsmakers.
The interesting thing that was noted and also
subsequently played on, was that if the top
power rating for a horse was noticeably higher
than all other horses beneath it? that horse
tended to win. Of course if the odds are under
2:1, it isn't worth playing but some with high
power ratings and great odds tended to pay
off nicely. My wallet as a witness =)
There are other nice comparisons on TVG,
under handicapping they have speed/class
[ http://www.alienintelligence.net/GA/507329/TVG4.jpg ]
ratings as well. With a little database help,
I've shown that a horse with a higher overall
speed/class rating that was running in it's
class, would also tend to show up as a winner.
(*More likely to occur than background odds
averages indicate)
In addition, many of the race sites as well as
TVG has data that you can download and
[ http://www.alienintelligence.net/GA/507329/TVG5.jpg ]
import into programs such as Excel, Access
or even FileMaker. Once you have imported
them, you can start your own statistical
analysis.
A friend of mine swears by the horse's segment
speed. Weekly he downloads the data and then
imports into FileMaker. In a database that he
created, he derives the info related to velocity
and acceleration for the individual horses.
Plotting each horse against one another and
taking into account the length of the current
race vs. the length of the races the velocity/accel
data comes from, some good picks have been
pulled.
Of course, if the picks were solid and consistent,
I would not be here right now. Breaking the horse
races down into a statistical analysis has tended
to raise some questions about actual viability of
the results or the races themselves. Some little
inconsistencies tend to pop up that aren't easily
explainable and would tend more to the, let's
say manipulation of a race.
Being a math purist, those inconsistencies have
caused me to stop wasting cash beyond trivial
amounts on exploratory studies.
Other sites with notable bloodstock research are:
[ http://bloodhorse.com/ ]
[ http://www.bris.com/ ]
[ http://www.drf.com/ ]
[ http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/ ]
[ http://www.tsnhorse.com/ ]
[ http://www.jockeyclub.com/ ]
[ http://www.horse-races.net/ ]
[ http://www.theprofessor.com/ ]
[ http://www.derbypage.com/ ]
Some sites with Kentucky Derby picks and
information:
[ http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/ ] <- note the info at the bottom of the page
[ http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=derbyfuturepps ]
[ http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2005/derby131.html ]
[ http://www.kentucky.com/mld/kentucky/sports/horse_racing/kentucky_derby/ ]
[ http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/pdf/ExperimentalFreeHandicap.pdf ]
[ http://horseracing.about.com/od/triplecrown2000/a/aa040505a.htm?rd=1 ]
[ http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/Worth_Watching ]
[ http://www.derbypost.com/tipsheet.html ]
[ http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/columns/story?id=1997916 ]
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Search terms used:
"Kentucky derby" research OR handicapping
[ ://www.google.com/search?&q=%22kentucky+derby%22+research+OR+handicapping ]
Additional Resources:
My personal data
thanks for your question,
-AI |
