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Q: Kentucky Derby favorites this year ( Answered 4 out of 5 stars,   8 Comments )
Subject: Kentucky Derby favorites this year
Category: Sports and Recreation
Asked by: katten-ga
List Price: $20.00
Posted: 09 Apr 2005 18:39 PDT
Expires: 09 May 2005 18:39 PDT
Question ID: 507329
How about a 5-line paragraph on each of 10-12 of the most likely
Kentucky Derby contenders this year?

Request for Question Clarification by alienintelligence-ga on 11 Apr 2005 02:09 PDT
Thanks katten.

I'll post a formal answer this 
afternoon plus some additional 
info that you might find 
interesting as well. *If I
can find the person with 
the info on Monday.


Clarification of Question by katten-ga on 11 Apr 2005 04:27 PDT
Subject: Re: Kentucky Derby favorites this year
Answered By: alienintelligence-ga on 11 Apr 2005 20:01 PDT
Rated:4 out of 5 stars
Hi there katten,

I knew I was forgetting a wagering/odds site.
It is:
[ ]

You will have to get a login to access their 
information but you may find it worthwhile.

The additional info I wanted to get was from
that site but I can't verify it for the Kentucky
Derby because the data was not up yet.

You can however experiment with current races.
It involves TVG's Handicapping. When you bring
up a race, it starts on the pools tab: (I took some 
screenshots so you don't have to go through the
motions of signing up just to see)
[ ]

From there you click on Handicapping:
[ ]

Sometimes one of the top 3 or the top pick
horse will have a longshot statement next to
it. I have seen a large majority of those longshots
hit. It does get better though. If you click on
the Handicapping tab, on the drop-down menu,
select Snap Shot.
[ ]

This new listing of the horses in the current
race has a column called Power Rating. This
is a rating created by TVG's oddsmakers.
The interesting thing that was noted and also
subsequently played on, was that if the top
power rating for a horse was noticeably higher
than all other horses beneath it? that horse
tended to win. Of course if the odds are under
2:1, it isn't worth playing but some with high
power ratings and great odds tended to pay
off nicely. My wallet as a witness   =)

There are other nice comparisons on TVG,
under handicapping they have speed/class
[ ]
ratings as well. With a little database help,
I've shown that a horse with a higher overall
speed/class rating that was running in it's
class, would also tend to show up as a winner.
(*More likely to occur than background odds 
averages indicate)

In addition, many of the race sites as well as
TVG has data that you can download and
[ ]
import into programs such as Excel, Access
or even FileMaker. Once you have imported
them, you can start your own statistical

A friend of mine swears by the horse's segment 
speed. Weekly he downloads the data and then
imports into FileMaker. In a database that he 
created, he derives the info related to velocity 
and acceleration for the individual horses.

Plotting each horse against one another and 
taking into account the length of the current 
race vs. the length of the races the velocity/accel 
data comes from, some good picks have been

Of course, if the picks were solid and consistent,
I would not be here right now. Breaking the horse
races down into a statistical analysis has tended
to raise some questions about actual viability of
the results or the races themselves. Some little
inconsistencies tend to pop up that aren't easily
explainable and would tend more to the, let's
say manipulation of a race. 

Being a math purist, those inconsistencies have
caused me to stop wasting cash beyond trivial 
amounts on exploratory studies.

Other sites with notable bloodstock research are:
[ ]
[ ]
[ ] 
[ ]
[ ]
[ ]
[ ]
[ ]
[ ]

Some sites with Kentucky Derby picks and
[ ]  <- note the info at the bottom of the page
[ ]
[ ]
[ ]
[ ]
[ ]
[ ] 
[ ]
[ ] 

Search terms used: 
"Kentucky derby" research OR handicapping
[ :// ]

Additional Resources: 
My personal data 

thanks for your question,
katten-ga rated this answer:4 out of 5 stars

Subject: Re: Kentucky Derby favorites this year
From: alienintelligence-ga on 09 Apr 2005 20:01 PDT
Wasn't the superfecta for 2004 over $40,000?
Maybe you meant $20 per horse?  =)

Have you tried any of the online horse sites?
[ ]
[ ]
Their research is rather thorough.

[ ]
Some one-liners there

Subject: Re: Kentucky Derby favorites this year
From: katten-ga on 10 Apr 2005 05:25 PDT
thanks! make it an answer and you get th $20.
Subject: Re: Kentucky Derby favorites this year
From: voila-ga on 11 Apr 2005 08:41 PDT
Subject: Re: Kentucky Derby favorites this year
From: markkus-ga on 16 Apr 2005 22:46 PDT
some more horse racing handicapping and selections web sites

Good luck! :-D
Subject: Re: Kentucky Derby favorites this year
From: teachcornell-ga on 03 May 2005 21:32 PDT
I got tips from they sent me to battaglias picks. Has anyone
heard of this site. they don't really have a record . I found reviews
for a horse racing tip website
and when I played their picks I did pretty good but I don't see it
listed.the review was at I like both of these sites
because they give you your money back if they lose.
Subject: Re: Kentucky Derby favorites this year
From: teachcornell-ga on 03 May 2005 22:03 PDT
This years Favorite will be Bellamy Road. Can he win? sure why not..He
has 2 contrary aspects. 1 -he ran the fastest race this year of
2 -he only has a few starts and it seems most horses that win the
derby have more starts.The sites that had a lot of info were:

Subject: Re: Kentucky Derby favorites this year
From: teachcornell-ga on 03 May 2005 22:05 PDT
<a href=""></a>
Subject: Re: Kentucky Derby favorites this year
From: teachcornell-ga on 03 May 2005 22:09 PDT
Afleet Alex:

Probably the second choice. Maryland/Delaware trainer has his first
Derby Horse. Been working a lot and appears fit to go the mile and a
quarter. Has a relatively mediocre jockey on him...came the same root
as Smarty Jones Last year.

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