By and large, there is relatively little interest in open source/Linux
related products among consumers who are not specifically Linux
enthusiasts. The most popular open source product among consumers by
far is the Firefox browser, which has taken nearly 6% market share in
the United States and nearly 19% market share in Germany. Europeans
in particular have gravitated towards open source products more so
than Americans, while Asians have been extremely reluctant to adopt
open-source products. Despite the significant early interest in
Firefox, however, its growth rate is in decline. It might reach 10%
marketshare by the end of the year in the United States, but it is
unclear if it will be able to extend its gains much beyond that.
"Growth rate slips for Firefox usage" By Paul Festa and Dawn Kawamoto,
CNET News.com (February 28, 2005)
http://ecoustics-cnet.com.com/Growth+rate+slips+for+Firefox+usage/2100-1032_3-5592677.html
The Thunderbird e-mail client, produced by the same foundation as the
Firefox web browser, has generated much less interest. "A report
issued Wednesday by messaging market-research firm Radicati Group Inc.
argues Thunderbird won't pull significant market share away from
Microsoft, IBM/Lotus, and Novell.
"Thunderbird is not taking off as well as Firefox, but it is getting
some interest," says Sara Radicati, the research group's president and
CEO. She declined to cite specific usage statistics. The Mozilla
Foundation reports Thunderbird has been downloaded 5 million times,
though downloads don't necessarily reflect ongoing usage."
"Thunderbird Finds It Hard To Mimic Firefox's Rapid Rise, Says Report"
by Thomas Claburn, InformationWeek (April 7, 2005)
http://www.messagingpipeline.com/160502948
The most successful open-source product of all is Apache, which "...
powers 68% of active Web sites, up from 54% two years ago...." While
consumers do not operate many web sites themselves, to the extent that
they do, they are most likely operating them using Apache.
"Apache Web Server Captures Market Share With Open Source" By Charles
Babcock, InformationWeek (March 29, 2004)
http://nwc.linuxpipeline.com/news/18600218
Linux itself has focused more on business and government customers
rather than consumers. Despite recent efforts to improve its consumer
usability, Linux desktop market share was negligible at only 2.8%
between consumers, businesses, and government in 2003.
"SUSE 9.3 released with consumer in mind" by Matthew, geek.com (March
11, 2005) http://www.geek.com/news/geeknews/2005Mar/gee20050311029541.htm
"2004 - The Year of the Desktop" by Alolita Sharma, Technetra
(March 2004) http://www.technetra.com/writings/silicon_valley/sv_2004_03_html
Forecasted adoption rates for Lenox range from a 6% market share by
2007, "Linux desktop market share to reach 6% in 2007" IT Facts
(February 13, 2004) http://www.itfacts.biz/index.php?id=P723, to 20%
by 2008, "Global IT firm predicts Linux will have 20% desktop market
share by 2008" by Chris Gulker , NewsForge (August 14, 2003)
http://www.newsforge.com/article.pl?sid=03/08/13/1424212. However,
the growth is expected to be among enterprises rather than consumers.
Marketshare figures for OpenOffice are difficult to come by. Sun has
maintained that StarOffice has almost a 15% marketshare, but this was
based on an unscientific poll conducted in 2000.
"Sun Details StarOffice 6" By David Worthington, BetaNews (August 29,
2001) http://www.betanews.com/article/999122156
Another source believes that Microsoft Office commands at least 90% of
the market for office productivity suites, but states that StarOffice
appeals to home office and small business users.
"MS's Office beta, Sun's StarOffice" Holiday Publication Ltd. (March
14, 2003) http://www.weeklyholiday.net/140303/tech.html
Considering that WordPerfect still commands adherents (this source
lists it as being number two in market share behind Microsoft's 94%,
selling or licensing 6,250,000 units a year: "Corel Wins Market Share
from Microsoft Office" By James Maguire, NewsFactor Network
(October 16, 2002) http://www.newsfactor.com/perl/story/19693.html),
OpenOffice market share is probably in the low single digits. "While
it's dwarfed in market share terms by Microsoft Office, OpenOffice is
slowly winning a following, thanks in part to its cost advantages and
its ability to work with files created by Microsoft applications."
"New OpenOffice on the threshold" By David Becker, CNET News.com (July
15, 2003) http://ecoustics-cnet.com.com/New+OpenOffice+on+the+threshold/2100-1046_3-1025908.html
In conclusion, there is still little evidence that consumers are
willing to embrace open-source software en masse, particularly when it
comes to their operating system and office productivity suites.
Open-source use at present is largely limited to Linux enthusiasts.
The Firefox browser's success does demonstrate that consumers are
willing to try open-source products when there is minimal risk
resulting from trial and considerable dissatisfaction with the
Microsoft offering. However, as consumers contemplate using open
source for more "mission critical" applications like e-mail, office
work, and operating their computers as a whole, they are much less
willing to try open-source at the present time. Interestingly,
Europeans seem to be much more willing to try open-source products
than Americans, and Americans are much more likely to try open-source
products than Asians.
In contrast, enterprises, especially governments, have aggressively
adopted open source products for many business-critical applications.
Foreign governments in particular are eager to avoid Microsoft's
hegemony, whereas corporations are seeking to minimize expenses and
improve security.
Sincerely,
Wonko |
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