Professor Oppenheimer has suggested that the Antarctic Ross ice shelf
will be gone in 200 years and the whole of the West Antarctic gone in
700 to 900 years. Professor Hughes has suggested that when the West
Antarctic has gone the East Antarctic will flow into the space left by
the Ross ice shelf and the West Antarctic; that is glaciers and ice
streams flowing through the gaps in the Transantarctic Mountains from
heights of 3000 metres.
I suggest that the ice in the gaps in Transantarctic Mountains, in the
current state of the East Antarctic, is stressing the West Antarctic
by the pressure due to the weight of ice from heights of 3000 metres.
The West Antarctic is also stressed by melt water freezing in
fissures/cracks etc. The melt water will also be getting down to the
bed of the West Antarctic to lubricate the bed so increasing the
possibility of collapse. These actions, together with a slightly
warmer sea around Antarctica and with the West Antarctic resting on
rock below sea level, will hasten West Antarctic Collapse!
My questions based on the above:
a) Is my suggestion possible/probable; that the West Antarctic is
vulnerable to collapse partly due to the East Antarctic?
b) What is the probability of West Antarctic collapse: a) before the
Ross ice shelf has gone, b) in 250 years, c) in 500 years and d) in
750 years?
I am interested, preferably in web sites, which quote the probability
of collapse/melt by time scale and/or probability of various sea level
rises by probability. (The actual time scale points need not be the
same as mine).
References:
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/resources/coldscience/aiceshet.htm
Web paper called ?Answers to sea level rise locked in ice? By Jack
Williams, USATODAY.com
http://www.climate.org/pubs/climate_alert/articles/8.3/hughes.shtml
Web paper called ?Greenhouse Warming Could Pop the Cork On a
Bottled-up East Antarctic Ice Sheet? an interview with Professor
Hughes
Quoting the opinion of an expert (PhD?) or even research paper
details (not on the internet) would be just acceptable as an
alternative to a web site, but I am not a University student but
access to the data may be possible but less easy for me.
My searching on the Internet has found little recent (2004/2005) data
that takes into account the Collapse of Larsen B, Pine Island, recent
speeding glaciers etc. in computer simulations or part of a considered
opinion. |