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Subject:
baseball statistics
Category: Sports and Recreation > Team Sports Asked by: namer-ga List Price: $5.00 |
Posted:
03 May 2005 14:00 PDT
Expires: 02 Jun 2005 14:00 PDT Question ID: 517327 |
Why do the number of outcomes recorded for a pitcher in a given year (strikeouts, groundouts, flyouts, hits, walks, and hit batsmen) often exceed the number of batters faced in that year? For example, in 2004 Pedro Martinez recorded 227 strikeouts, 186 groundouts, 228 flyouts, 193 hits, 61 walks, and 16 hit batsmen, for a total of 911 outcomes. Yet he only faced 903 batters (plate appearances). Why is that? |
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There is no answer at this time. |
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Subject:
Re: baseball statistics
From: markj-ga on 03 May 2005 14:44 PDT |
The only situations that I can think of that might make the "batters faced" number differ from the total of the "outcomes" you mention would result in a "batters faced" number larger that is larger that the "outcomes" total, not smaller. However, since neither involves a "completed" plate appearance, they probably aren't counted as "batters faced." One of these is "catcher's interference," a situation where a batter is awarded first base, the catcher is charged with an error and the batter is not charged with an "at bat." The other one is the situation where a batter is left stranded at the plate at the end of a game when the final out is made by "picking off" a base runner, for example. |
Subject:
Re: baseball statistics
From: omnivorous-ga on 03 May 2005 15:17 PDT |
Namer -- In the case of a strikeout where the ball is dropped or in the dirt, the catcher has to tag the runner out (2 unassisted) or throw them out (2-3) at first base. I believe that this may account for the groundouts and strikeouts being double-counted. It would easily account for 8 or more outs for Pedro. Best regards, Omnivorous-GA |
Subject:
Re: baseball statistics
From: justaskscott-ga on 03 May 2005 16:08 PDT |
Reached on error? Sacrifice flies? Caught stealing for third out of inning? These plus the possibilities mentioned in prior comments, when added and subtracted, could explain the difference between outcomes and plate appearances. Any sabermetricians out there? |
Subject:
Re: baseball statistics
From: markj-ga on 03 May 2005 16:47 PDT |
I have emailed my favorite baseball columnist asking for his thoughts. I will let you know if and when I get a response. |
Subject:
Re: baseball statistics
From: namer-ga on 04 May 2005 08:07 PDT |
Markj Thank you for your thoughts. I agree that catcher's interference would count as a plate appearance but would not generate an outcome. Therefore, we would expect plate appearances to exceed outcomes. I beleive the same is true when a batter reaches first on an error. It is a plate appearance, but not a hit, out, or walk. Therefore, I would expect plate appearances to exceed outcomes by a significant number, to account for errors and catcher's intereference. But it is always the other way around. When a batter is left stranded at the plate at the end of an inning, this is not counted as a plate appearance or an outcome, so this is probably not the source of the discrepanc |
Subject:
Re: baseball statistics
From: namer-ga on 04 May 2005 08:13 PDT |
Justaskscott, Thank you for your thoughts. However: Reached on error would cause plate appearances to exceed outcomes, not the other way around (it would count as a plate appearance, but no outcome would be recorded--no out, not hit, no walk) The sac flies are included in flyouts. Caught stealing would end a batter's tenure mid-appearance. This would not count as either a plate appearance or an outcome and would not creat the discrepancy. |
Subject:
Re: baseball statistics
From: markj-ga on 04 May 2005 10:39 PDT |
If a pitcher is removed during an at-bat, I believe that the removed pitcher is charged with the outcome of that at-bat. However, it would be consistent with other rules about partial at-bats *not* to charge the removed pitched with a "batter faced" in those circumstances, I believe. Do you think that this could explain the discrepancy? |
Subject:
Re: baseball statistics
From: justaskscott-ga on 04 May 2005 12:54 PDT |
Namer could be right about the effect of the occurrences I suggested, though I can't say for sure. I figured it was worth mentioning these possibilities as food for thought. As for markj's suggestion, I believe a pitcher is almost never removed during an at-bat. I'd be surprised if it happened during 2004 to Pedro Martinez, unless he was injured in the middle of an at-bat. |
Subject:
Re: baseball statistics
From: macchiato-ga on 04 May 2005 15:17 PDT |
I believe double plays are a major reason for this discrepacy as mentioned in an earlier post already. when a player grounds into a double play this counts twice in the groundout statistic and in this way increases the "outcomes" of a pitcher. other things might play a role as well and were mentioned before, too (for instance, dropped foul ball errors). in the referenced 2004 season stats of Pedro his 8 GIDP can account for the mentioned difference between 911 outcomes and 903 batters faced. To illustrate this I suggest to check the 2005 stats of Pedro and then analyse each of the 6 games he started so far (this is easier than checking the whole 2004 season). http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?statsId=4875 For some strange reason the ground out and fly out numbers are wrong on this page, correct ones can be obtained at mlb.com (they are also correct in each box score): http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/stats/mlb_individual_player_gamebygamelog.jsp?playerID=118377&statType=2 The respective numbers for 2005 are: 52 strikeouts, 41 groundouts, 37 flyouts, 22 hits, 8 walks, and 0 hit batsmen, for a total of 160 outcomes. Yet he only faced 158 batters (plate appearances). Checking each of the six games shows that outcomes and faced batters are equal 4 times. They are not in the season opener (23 to 22) and in the game on April 26 (30 to 29). You can count the outcomes in the play-by-play version of the game: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gameLog?gameId=250404117 counting is easy here, mostly K's .. ;-) 2 players grounded out, one of them into a double play. The stats count 3 groundouts. The same is true for the April 26 game. Two more outcomes than batters faced because of two double plays induced. |
Subject:
Re: baseball statistics
From: myoarin-ga on 04 May 2005 17:07 PDT |
You guys ought to get out to the ballground. Help that pallid teint of computer jockeys. There is a difference of 8, and 8 double plays: 8 men got on base with hits and then were counted again as groundouts. Omni was right with his now deleted answer, and should be back at bat by now. :-) I only went to one pro game in my youth, but it was a biggy: Larsen of the Yanks pitching a no-hitter for nine innings against the Red Sox in Boston, Ted Williams struck out and gesturing at the press box, for which he got a walloping fine of $ 500 (?, just a raised fist, no extended digit). After Larsen came off, the Yanks won in the 10th or 11th inning. Just name the year ... |
Subject:
Re: baseball statistics
From: namer-ga on 05 May 2005 09:04 PDT |
macchiato, Counting each ground out into a double play as two groundouts for a pitcher is a reasonable theory as to why outcomes exceed events. Let's see if it holds up beyond Pedro: Consider Tim Wakefied's 2004 numbers: 116 strikeouts, 237groundouts, 205 flyouts,197 hits, 63 walks, and 16 hit batsmen, for a total of 834 outcomes. He faced 831 batters--two more outcomes than events. And there were 11 groundouts into double plays. Or Curt Schilling's 2004 numbers: 203 strikeouts, 219groundouts, 251 flyouts, 206 hits, 35 walks, and 5 hit batsmen, for a total of 919 outcomes. He faced 910 batters--9 more outcomes than events. And there were 12 groundouts into double plays. Does it still make sense |
Subject:
Re: baseball statistics
From: markj-ga on 05 May 2005 09:17 PDT |
Also, if GDPs result in two outcomes for the doubled-up player, shouldn't outcomes be double counted as well for the doubled-up player in line-drive/pick-off (and other) double plays? |
Subject:
Re: baseball statistics
From: omnivorous-ga on 05 May 2005 09:21 PDT |
Namer -- You're assuming that a GIDP is counted as two groundballs. I'm reasonably certain that it DOES NOT. Pitching coaches and others track ratios of groundball outs and flyball outs discretely -- it's an important measure in setting defenses. If you have a sinkerball pitcher like Jake Westbrook, you set infield and outfield defenses differently than for those pitchers who elevate the ball and get more flyball outs. I stick by yesterday's answer -- now removed -- that the difference is GIDP. But now we need to find the evidence to support the argument. Best regards, Omnivorous-GA |
Subject:
Re: baseball statistics
From: macchiato-ga on 05 May 2005 10:02 PDT |
markj -- it wouldn't make much sense to count other double plays like line-drive/pick-off from the perspective that "outcomes" and "groundouts" are pitcher statistics. while it is not really due to the pitcher that a batter lines out and subsequently a runner gets doubled up, it is quite a lot due to the pitcher when a batter grounds into a DP. therefore, it would make sense to count the times a pitcher induced a GIDP (partly his effort), but not lined into DP or others (random or not related to pitcher's effort). |
Subject:
Re: baseball statistics
From: markj-ga on 05 May 2005 10:30 PDT |
macchiato -- You may well be right, but I'm not sure I agree with yhour logic. It seems to me that a pitcher has precisely as much of a role in generating a line drive as he does in generating a ground ball. And, either way, the pitcher usually has no direct role in generating the second out in the double play. |
Subject:
Re: baseball statistics
From: macchiato-ga on 05 May 2005 10:48 PDT |
Namer -- sure, you are right, "outcomes" minus GIDP not necessarily equals "batters faced". this is because there are other factors that make "outcomes" and "batters faced" diverge as mentioned previously in the post. in the aggregate data of a whole season or part of it this is pretty difficult to control for. if you analyse the data of one single game which you can "score" based on play-by-play data and then compare to the statistics given in the box score you can pin point this reasons better. I have given an example of that with Pedro's 2005 games until now in the earlier post. the data of one single game with one outcome more than batters faced and one GIDP occurring is quite evident, I would say. |
Subject:
Re: baseball statistics
From: namer-ga on 05 May 2005 14:27 PDT |
macchiato-- Thank you very much for the espn link with the pitch-by-pitch records and the suggestion to score those games and compare the results to the official record. That has been extremely useful. I have now scored 14 recent games in this way and compared the result to the official MLB records for the pitchers involved. In all 14 cases, the official results are consistent with the following methodology: (1) GIDPs are scored as two groundouts. They are the reason outcomes exceed events (batters). (2) Batters who reach first on an error and catcher's interference are not counted at all. Apart fronm the GIDPs, this would cause fewer outcomes than events. (3) A fielder's choice is scored as a groundout. I will do another dozen games to be sure, but so far this method creates a 100% match. Having said that, I agree with the other comments that this is dumb. By this method, a pitcher can be credited with either one or two groundouts for the exact same pitch, depending on whether or not there is already someone on base and how the fielder's handle the ball situation to get the double play. This does not seem to be a good way to measure pure pitching performance. But then again, we had to expect that any statistical method which regularly produces more outcomes than events was going to have a pretty big flaw in it somewhere. |
Subject:
Re: baseball statistics
From: myoarin-ga on 06 May 2005 14:48 PDT |
You'd think someone really knew ... Could it result from the pitcher coming in as relief in mid-inning with men on base who were put out? With all those numbers, could there just be some miscounting? |
Subject:
Re: baseball statistics
From: namer-ga on 09 May 2005 06:37 PDT |
Myaorin, I don't think so. There were many instances of pitchers coming in mid-inning, but thsi always squared with the batters faced. And I think there are far too many instances for this to be miscounting. Outcomes exceed batters for the majority of games--because there are double plays in the majority of games. |
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