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Subject:
Fair Spoons (Probability problem)
Category: Reference, Education and News > Homework Help Asked by: callawar-ga List Price: $20.00 |
Posted:
24 May 2005 23:41 PDT
Expires: 23 Jun 2005 23:41 PDT Question ID: 525309 |
Original Problem Scott and Letitia determined who would wash the dishes and who would dry by having Scott pull two spoons out of a bag. The bag contained two purple spoons and three green ones. Of the two spoons Scott pulled out were the same color, then Scott washed and Letitia dried. If the two were different colors, then Letitia washed and Scott dried. New Problem Letitia decided she didn't like that system, because it turned out that she washed the dishes about 60 percent of the time. Scott thought that if they found the right number of spoons of each color to put in the bag, they could make the probability of a match equal to 50 percent. Find out as much about their choices as you can. Dad needs help! Any help would be appreciated. Thanks. |
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Subject:
Re: Fair Spoons (Probability problem)
Answered By: justaskscott-ga on 25 May 2005 00:41 PDT Rated: |
Hello callawar, Three spoons of one color and one spoon of a different color would lead to a 50% probability that Scott would draw matching colors. Say that Scott and Letitia put in three purple spoons and one green spoon. We could call them P1, P2, and P3 ("P" for purple) and G1 ("G" for green). If Scott drew P1 first, he would have 2 chances of drawing the same color as P1(P2 or P3) versus 1 chance of drawing a different color (G1). The same would be true if Scott instead drew P2 first: 2 chances of the same color (P1 or P3), versus 1 chance of a different color (G1). And likewise for P3: 2 chances of the same color (P1 or P2), versus 1 chance of a different color (G1). But if Scott selected G1 first, there would be 0 chances of selecting the same color, versus 3 chances of selecting a different color (P1, P2, or P3). In summary, Scott could draw two spoons in the following orders: 1) P1 - P2 2) P1 - P3 3) P1 - G1 4) P2 - P1 5) P2 - P3 6) P2 - G1 7) P3 - P1 8) P3 - P2 9) P3 - G1 10) G1 - P1 11) G1 - P2 12) G1 - P3 There are 6 possibilities of different colors (3, 6, 9, 10, 11, 12 in this list) and 6 possibilities of the same color (1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8 in the list). Since there are 6 possibilities of "different color" and 6 possibilities of "same color," both are equally likely. Incidentally, here is the list for three purple spoons and two green spoons: 1) P1 - P2 2) P1 - P3 3) P1 - G1 4) P1 - G2 5) P2 - P1 6) P2 - P3 7) P2 - G1 8) P2 - G2 9) P3 - P1 10) P3 - P2 11) P3 - G1 12) P3 - G2 13) G1 - P1 14) G1 - P2 15) G1 - P3 16) G1 - G2 17) G2 - P1 18) G2 - P2 19) G2 - P3 20) G2 - G1 There are 12 possibilities of "different color" (3, 4, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19) and 8 possibilities of "same color" (1, 2, 5, 6, 9, 10, 16, 20), which explains why Letitia was washing the dishes 60% of the time (12 chances out of 20). I hope that this information is helpful. Please let me know if you need any clarification. - justaskscott (unrelated to the Scott in this question!) | |
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callawar-ga
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Subject:
Re: Fair Spoons (Probability problem)
From: crythias-ga on 25 May 2005 06:36 PDT |
What's interesting about this problem is that the "intuitive" answer -- 2P and 2G -- isn't 1/2... HOWEVER, the answer posed an interesting paradox, if you will. If it is *known* that only one green spoon exists in the bag of 4, the actual number of draws is reduced. There is zero chance of getting a pair if green is drawn first. This can be seen as removing some of the available draws, -- what is the point of drawing the second time if green is chosen first? -- leaning toward 4 invalid draws and 6 valid draws. |
Subject:
Re: Fair Spoons (Probability problem)
From: crythias-ga on 25 May 2005 08:26 PDT |
6P and 3G work: There will be 9*8=72 total ways to pull 2 spoons. There will be 6*5=30 ways to pull 2 purple spoons. There will be 3*2=6 ways to pull 2 green spoons. This is (30+6)/72=1/2=50% |
Subject:
Re: Fair Spoons (Probability problem)
From: justaskscott-ga on 25 May 2005 08:40 PDT |
Thanks, crythias! I agree with that six spoons of one color and three spoons of a different color is another correct answer. |
Subject:
Re: Fair Spoons (Probability problem)
From: crythias-ga on 25 May 2005 11:53 PDT |
Here's another possibility... I was throwing some numbers around and The first column is the number of one color of spoons (or, all spoons). The second column is the number of ways to draw two spoons based upon the first column (column 1)*[(column 1) minus 1] or (column 1)P2, where #P2 is the number of permutations that 2 can be chosen from # spoons. The Third column is half (50%) of the second column. It hit me that any consecutive two numbers in the third column can answer the problem. We've already demonstrated that (1 and 3) and (3 and 6) work. Column 2 for 6 and 10 sum to 120, which is Column 3 value for (6+10=16). # #P2 half 2 2 1 3 6 3 4 12 6 5 20 10 6 30 15 7 42 21 8 56 28 9 72 36 10 90 45 11 110 55 12 132 66 13 156 84 16 240 120 Ack! I've duplicated justaskscott-ga's answer (much easier to follow). |
Subject:
Re: Fair Spoons (Probability problem)
From: manuka-ga on 03 Jun 2005 01:50 PDT |
Note that these are the so-called "triangular" numbers, the ones you get by adding up the first n positive integers (1, 3=1+2, 6=1+2+3, etc.) The general form of these is n(n+1)/2. Here's the analysis of why these numbers work and no others: Suppose we have A spoons of one colour and B spoons of another colour. There are (A+B) (A+B-1) different choices we can make (including order). Of these, there are A (A-1) + B (B-1) draws with the same colour and AB + BA draws with different colours. We want these values to be equal. So we want A^2 - A + B^2 - B = 2AB (using ^2 to indicate "squared"). We can rewrite this as B^2 - (2A+1) B + (A^2-A) = 0, looking at it as a quadratic equation in B. This equation has the solution B = [(2A+1) +/- sqrt ((2A+1)^2 - 4(A^2-A))] / 2 = [(2A+1) +/- sqrt (4A^2 + 4A + 1 -4A^2 + 4A)] / 2 = [(2A+1) +/- sqrt (8A+1)] / 2 Now for this to be an integer we need sqrt (8A+1) to be an odd integer, i.e. 8A+1 must be the square of an odd integer. The general formula for an odd integer is 2k+1, where k is any integer; in this case 8A+1 is greater than 1 (since A>0) so k > 1 also. So let 8A+1 = (2k+1)^2 = 4k^2 + 4k + 1. Then A = (k^2+k)/2 = k(k+1)/2. This is a triangular number in the form given (substitue k for n). Also sqrt(8A+1) = 2k+1, so for B we get B = [(2A+1) +/- sqrt (8A+1)] / 2 = [(k^2 + k + 1) +/- (2k + 1)] / 2 = (k^2 - k) / 2 or (k^2 + 3k + 2) / 2 = (k-1)k / 2 or (k+1)(k+2)/2. These answers are respectively the next lowest and the next highest triangular number after A (replace n by (k-1) and by (k+1) in the original formula to see this). So in general the only answer that will work is a consecutive pair of triangular numbers, and any such pair will work. |
Subject:
Re: Fair Spoons (Probability problem)
From: manuka-ga on 03 Jun 2005 01:53 PDT |
Also note that consecutive pairs of triangular numbers sum to a square number (and that all squares can be produced this way), as justaskscott noticed: Take the (k-1)-th and k-th triangular numbers and add them together: (k-1)k/2 + k(k+1)/2 = (k^2 - k + k^2 + k) / 2 = (2k^2)/2 = k^2. |
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