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Subject:
Parameters affecting statistical distribution of ML baseball batting averages
Category: Science > Physics Asked by: moedeque-ga List Price: $25.00 |
Posted:
26 May 2005 08:00 PDT
Expires: 25 Jun 2005 08:00 PDT Question ID: 525855 |
What is it about the game, field and players in major league baseball that tends to cause a distribution of batting averages in the range from 0.000 to approximately 0.400, with a peak at approx. 0.250 ? A response with valid analyis or reference to a source of such an analysis, will be acceptable |
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There is no answer at this time. |
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Subject:
Re: Parameters affecting statistical distribution of ML baseball batting average
From: myoarin-ga on 26 May 2005 09:24 PDT |
HI Moedegue, I think that you have outlined the answer yourself: a bell curve - a Gauss distribution - with its peak at 0.250 and a maximum of 0.400. This would be the expected distribution of batting averages if we just looked at the curve without reference to its position on the X axis, so we need to explain that. Nobody - just nobody! - in baseball hits over 0.500 or even seldom over 0.400. The way the game is played precludes this: nine men against one, the experience gained with a batter improving the team's ability to field against him, at worse or best resulting in the pitcher's walking him, which allows him on base but does not (I believe) count towards his batting average. Thus a team facing a potential 1.000 batter (from his skill at hitting any ball within the strike range) could walk him and avoid his achieving such a record of hits per times at bat. This does happen to some extent (choosing intentionally walk a Ted Williams with two on base rather than risk his hitting and maybe letting both score). This explains why the upper half - 6/10 - of the theoretical range of 0.0 to 1.0 for batting averages is not just in right field somewhere, it is out of bounds. The bell curve maxes at 0.400. At the lower end, if just the batting coach had his way, there would be no players with batting averages below 0.200 - to pick a number. But since some players - especially pitchers - are of much greater value to the team on the field, their weak batting is accepted. I hope this explanation helps you. It is not an answer, which a Researcher can still post. Myoarin |
Subject:
Re: Parameters affecting statistical distribution of ML baseball batting average
From: dmrmv-ga on 26 May 2005 10:01 PDT |
Stephen Jay Gould (renowned, but recently deceased, evolutionary biologist and baseball fan) wrote an interesting essay on the decline of the .400 hitter and discusses some of the factors governing the distribution of batting averages. The essay was published as his monthy contribution to Natural History magazine and also appears in one of his collections of essays. From doing a search at Amazon I think the essay was called "Losing the edge", which is in the collection "The Flamingo's Smile". I don't think it's available online. Some people disagree with Dr. Gould: http://www.geocities.com/cyrilmorong@sbcglobal.net/Mismeasure.htm |
Subject:
Re: Parameters affecting statistical distribution of ML baseball batting averages
From: hfshaw-ga on 27 May 2005 14:49 PDT |
A bit of a nit.... Despite what myoarin wrote, we know that the distribution of batting averages cannot follow a true gaussian distribution. The gaussian has tails that extend to plus and minus infinity, whereas batting averages cannot be less than 0 or greater than 1. |
Subject:
Re: Parameters affecting statistical distribution of ML baseball batting average
From: myoarin-ga on 27 May 2005 20:15 PDT |
Of course, in theory, but not in reality. Sure, the curve based on the batting averages will not hit O,O (all those poor hitting pitchers), but there will not be any negative results. |
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