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Subject:
Groking Math
Category: Science > Math Asked by: hopelessnerd-ga List Price: $2.00 |
Posted:
06 Jun 2005 21:13 PDT
Expires: 06 Jul 2005 21:13 PDT Question ID: 530196 |
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There is no answer at this time. |
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Subject:
Re: Groking Math
From: stephanbird-ga on 07 Jun 2005 02:31 PDT |
I'm not totally sure this is what you mean, but an simple example I can think of is that of revenue from sales, related to the price of the goods. Note, I'm not an economist, so this is in simple language and there may be better technical terms to illustrate this argument. If something is cheap, then people may well buy a lot of it, but your gross income from these sales is low. Similarly, if you price too high, people may only buy a few of your product resulting again in a low income. Naturally what you need to aim for is a happy medium where you sell lots of stuff at a price that people are willing to pay. You can model your income approximately by a curve of the form y(100-y) (where the 100 is arbitary here, and the y is the selling price [max 100]). Note that when y is small, you reach the form of a small number times ~ 100, making a small number. When y is large then again you get ~100 times a small number. However when y is in the middle of this range, say 50 you then get ~50 x ~50 which gives a max income of around ~2500. The formula you've got above can be rewritten as 100y - y^2, which is where the negative exponent of y^2 can come from. Any help? S |
Subject:
Re: Groking Math
From: omnivorous-ga on 07 Jun 2005 04:52 PDT |
Hopelessnerd -- Indeed most business functions are non-linear -- and thank goodness for it or we'd be living in a rudimentary pre-industrial economy. Can you imagine a farm where planting twice as much corn would cost twice as much? You're almost certainly familiar with "learning curve" effects in which the more we learn in a process, the more efficient we become. The detailed statistical understanding started with ship & aircraft production in World War II -- when it was discovered that every time production doubled, costs dropped: http://ax.losangeles.af.mil/se_revitalization/aa_functions/manufacturing/Attachments/18.%20The%20Learning%20Curve.htm --- You're unclear with the formula, which I believe is y = -2x^2 + 3x + 2000, indicating that there's a fixed cost even when revenues (x) = 0. As x rises, it appears that whatever y is declines: x = 1, y = 2001 x = 2, y = 1999 x = 3, y = 1991 x = 4, y = 1980 . . . x = 25, y = 825 What could a function like this decribe? A non-linear function like this could well be the INCREMENTAL cost/unit of sales: even with no sales the firm has a base cost for production/research/overhead. When unit #1 is sold, costs actually rise slightly -- perhaps only from the cost of shipping to that first unit to a customer. But then they'll fall consistently. At some point in this model you actually see negative numbers. When above about x = 32 the function goes negative. Is it possible to sell 100 or 1,000 of something and have your PER UNIT costs actually go down? Ask Henry Ford about the Model T, which started at $850 in 1909 when several hundred were shipped -- and was priced at $260 by 1925, when 2 million of the cars were made. --- I've made some gross asumptions here, not knowing precisely what your formula's meant to represent. And y = -2x^2 + 3x + 2000 produces big negative y's at low numbers -- so it starts to look like the old adage about "Doing more and more with less and less. Pretty soon we'll be doing everything with nothing." Often these non-linear relationships are good on a mathematical range -- frequently limited by time. Another well-known non-linear relationship is Moore's Law, in which the size of a semiconductor doubles every 18-24 months: http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/mooreslaw.htm Though it's merely a different way of looking at the "learning curve," this time based on semiconductor technology, even Gordon Moore sees limits to the application of the "law" with his name: http://www.pcw.co.uk/vnunet/news/2127129/gordon-moore-calls-law Best regards, Omnivorous-GA |
Subject:
Re: Groking Math
From: mathtalk-ga on 07 Jun 2005 06:26 PDT |
Despite the nonlinearity of reality, much progress can be made by relentlessly pounding round pegs into linear holes... such an intention underlies calculus. As far as bookkeeping goes, yes, a ledger (say of accounts payable) is ideally a simple matter of adding and subtracting, although interest expense starts to bring in more interesting math. Furthermore accounting is much more than bookkeeping. A specialized kind of this is done by actuaries, who are required to certify the funding levels of qualified retirement plans under "federal" law in many countries. The math here involves the probabilities of death of participants at varying ages and is therefore quite nonlinear. regards, mathtalk-ga |
Subject:
Re: Groking Math
From: jack_of_few_trades-ga on 09 Jun 2005 11:20 PDT |
The economic side of this has been well stated in the above comments, but it was written for an economist and not everyone will understand it. Here is the skinny: If a Toyota plant is set up to make approximately 500 cars in a month, then it has the employees, storage space, tools. . . to produce 500 cars. If you ask this plant to produce only 10 cars, then the cost to produce each car will be very high (which will make your revenues very low or even negative). If you ask this plant to produce 500 cars, then the cost to produce each car will be low. If you ask this plant to produce 2000 cars, then they will have to hire alot of temporary workers, buy alot of machinery, rent storage space. . . and the cost to produce each car will be very high. This is a fairly typical example that shows in the short run that costs are very non-linear. But notice in the long run that many of these expenses can be levelled out and you could have a much more linear cost per car when looking at the long run (as long as you know how many cars you'll be producing in the long run). |
Subject:
Re: Groking Math
From: racecar-ga on 11 Jun 2005 14:56 PDT |
I applaud your effort to really understand what's going on, rather than simply accepting it and plugging things in mindlessly. The problem is that this effort is wasted on economics, because, as your professor told you, there is no real answer to your question. You are trying to be rigorous about something that by its nature is fuzzy. There is no real meaning to the negative linear term and postive quadratic term in the example you provided. This function is simply chosen because it is the simplest one imaginable for which the cost per unit has a local minumum--that is, for tc = 10000 -1000q + 200q^2, the cost per unit (tc/q) is less for q=7 than for any other number of units. This behavior may be regarded as 'realistic' because, as jack_of_few_trades points out, as you increase production, at first efficiency goes up, but eventually you get swamped and efficiency goes down again. The reasons why this happens are many and complicated. Often, changes happen in discrete jumps--the whatsits you have to buy are cheaper if you order at least 100 cases, or you move into a higher tax bracket, or you have to rent another building. There is no way that all these factors are going to combine together to give you a smooth simple function for total cost. It is likely that you could find some complicated function with lots of terms that would fit the actual data better in any particular situation. However, the quadratic function has the advantage that it's simple and easy to understand and manipulate (differentiate, etc) but it's nonlinear which allows for things like a local minimum in cost per unit. Actually though, I really don't like the fact that the linear term in your example is negative. There is a good reason for it to be positive: surely there are some costs associated with production that are at least almost linear. If the linear term were positive, you could interpret it as representing these costs, and the quadratic term as representing the effect of getting 'swamped' (there still wouldn't be any reason beyond simplicity for this term to be quadratic--though I suppose the first term in the Taylor series expansion of most other nonlinear terms you might choose to add would be quadratic. Actually, that might pacify you a bit when it comes to WHY tc = a + bq + cq^2 --- ANY (differentiable) function can be expanded about a point to yield a + bq + cq^2 + dq^3 + .... This is called a Taylor series expansion, and as long as you are pretty close to the point about which you did the expansion, the terms generally get smaller and smaller. If you just keep the first three, you have your quadratic function). Besides, having a negative linear term means that total cost initially decreases with increasing units produced. That is, it is cheaper to make 2 units than to make 1. This seems unrealistic. I cannot conceive of a reasonable case in which, if you wanted 1 unit, the cheapest course of action would be to make 2 and discard 1. I agree with you that if you know how your total costs actually behave, it doesn't do you any good to fit a quadratic function (you can just look at the actual data and determine what's best) and if you don't know how your total costs behave, you don't know how to choose the coefficients in the quadratic function, and again this stuff doesn't do you any good. I don't believe that companies actually make decisions based on quadratic models. The utility of studying these quadratic functions is more in giving you, the student, an understanding of the mathematical concepts relevant to business. That's my 2 bits anyway. I should warn you that I know a bit about math, but nothing about business... |
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