Request for Question Clarification by
umiat-ga
on
12 Jul 2005 22:13 PDT
Hello, fattireac-ga,
I have put quite a bit of time into researching your question and
know time is of the essence for you. I know you wanted a speedy answer
and your question has remained untouched.
As you can imagine, most everything you are asking for is hidden in
expensive market research reports! While I was able to find some
information pertaining to the top prescription drugs for Osteoporosis
and some sales numbers for each, the data for OTC products by top
brand and annual sales comes at a hefty price. Any other free articles
I could find are extremely outdated.
I am wondering if the following references that touch on some of your
questions are of any use?
If you are interested in the information as a partial answer, feel
free to adjust the price of your question accordingly and I will go
ahead and post what I have found.
Or, if you would like me to pursue another direction, I can try that as well.
Prescriptions Drugs for Osteoporosis
=====================================
A recent CNN money report has some good numbers and predictions for
the top-selling Osteoporosis prescription medications. The following
provides 2004 sales data for the leaders -
Fosamax (the leading seller from Merck),
Evista (Eli Lilly) and
Actonel (Proctor & Gamble).
Boniva recently entered the market, and three more are awaiting FDA
approval - Oporia, Bazedoxifene and AMG. Sales data of two less
popular osteoporosis products are also mentioned - Forteo and an
unamed nasal spray.
==
"Three osteoporosis drugs -- Fosamax, Evista and Actonel -- are
currently on the market, and a fourth drug, Boniva, recently became
available. McDonald said that any osteoporosis drug has "blockbuster
potential," since it treats a chronic disease inflicting millions of
Americans and requiring years of treatment. "After a few years, peak
sales of any effective osteoporosis agent could reach well over $1
billion," said McDonald.
"The numbers bear him out. The three osteoporosis drugs that have been
on the market longer than a year are all blockbusters. Fosamax, a
Merck & Co. drug that reverses the bone loss caused by osteoporosis,
made $3.2 billion in 2004 and is the leading seller for the sector.
The two competing treatments, Evista by Eli Lilly and Co and Actonel
from Procter & Gamble each made $1 billion in 2004. Boniva, a
once-monthly osteoporosis drug co-developed by GlaxoSmithKline and
Roche Holding, was recently approved by the Food and Drug
Administration and entered the market in April."
Should the drug makers and their shareholders be worried about
overcrowding? No, according to Lehman Brothers analyst Anthony Butler,
because there is "no lack" of patients needing drugs for osteoporosis
treatment.
Merck's patent for Fosamax, the current market leader, is set to
expire in 2007, leaving behind billions of dollars in potential sales
for its competitors. "A lot of other companies are trying to fill that
void before it goes public," said McDonald.
"And there are at least three products in the osteoporosis pipeline.
Pfizer Inc. submitted its application for Oporia to the FDA in
August, 2004, and the company and analysts expect the FDA to make a
decision in the near future. In addition, Wyeth is putting an
osteoporosis drug, Bazedoxifene, through late-stage testing and could
submit the drug to the FDA next year. If the FDA approves
Bazedoxifene, it could be on the market as early as 2007. Also, Amgen
Inc.'s bone-rebuilding product AMG 162 is in late stage testing. If
tests are successful and the drug is approved by the FDA, the
potential blockbuster could be on the market by 2007, said CIBC World
Markets analyst Matthew Geller.
"It could be huge," said Geller, who referred to AMG 162 as
"potentially a multi-billion dollar drug." "If these products enter
the market, the osteoporosis sector would be divided among seven
separate drugs, albeit briefly, in 2007. The patent for Fosamax
expires in August, 2007, followed by six months of market exclusivity.
Once Fosamax loses exclusivity in 2008, at least six name-brand drugs
would be trying to get a piece of its action."
"There are also some non-blockbusters on the market. Lilly has another
osteoporosis drug, Forteo, which made $239 million in 2004 sales.
According to the company, Forteo does not compete with the
blockbusters because it treats a more severe form of the disease. In
addition, Novartis produces a nasal spray that treats osteoporosis and
made $377 million in 2004."
Excerpt from from "A bone drug battle ahead?" By Aaron Smith,
CNN/Money. June 3, 2005.
http://money.cnn.com/2005/06/02/news/fortune500/osteoporosis/
Future projections
==================
From "Osteoporosis sees new wave of treatment options." Drug Researcher. 4/28/2004
http://www.drugresearcher.com/news/news-ng.asp?id=51696-osteoporosis-sees-new
"A report released yesterday by market analysts Datamonitor reveals
how research and development trends in the osteoporosis market will
provide a boost to available treatments. Market sales are forecasted
to reach $10.4 billion by 2011, from approximately $5.0 billion in
2003."
"Looking to the future - Meanwhile, Datamonitor notes that the early
stage pipeline (Phase II or lower) is 'bursting' with potential
candidates for osteoporosis drugs, with five entirely new therapeutic
classes in development. Three of these classes hold significant
potential in osteoporosis, accoridng to the report: the cathepsin K
inhibitors, osteoprotegerin and calcilytics.
"Cathepsin K inhibitors are receiving the most R&D attention, with
compounds investigated by Novartis (Phase II), GSK (Phase I) and Merck
(preclinical). Like Protos, these drugs could have both
anti-resorptive and anabolic properties. Osteoprotegerin (OPG), under
development by Amgen, is one of the first genomic derived drug
candidates in osteoporosis. However, while OPG represents a
scientifically innovative approach to slowing bone loss, as an
antiresorptive it will still face strong competition from the
bisphosphonates."
==
From "Battling Bone Disease: New Drugs Strengthen the Osteoporosis
Market." Author: Adis International Limited. Source: Pharmaceutical &
Diagnostic Innovation, November 2004, vol. 2, no. 6, pp. 3-8(6)
http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/adis/inn/2004/00000002/00000006/art00001
"Factors that could limit growth of the osteoporosis market include
the low profile of the disorder and the 2008 patent expiry of Fosamax.
The global market for osteoporosis drugs was approximately $US5
billion in 2003 (excluding HRT) and Datamonitor analysts predict that
its value could reach $US10 billion by 2011. Analysts from Frost &
Sullivan anticipate that the US market alone could be worth $US7.8
billion in 2008."
==
"Breakthrough osteoporosis treatment, Protelos, receives prestigious
Frost & Sullivan Award for Innovation." March 2005
http://www.servier.com/pro/html_news_home/frost_sull.asp
Very General sales data for OTC calcium products
==================================================
"Dollar sales of calcium rose 9.3 percent for the year ending January 2004."
From "American Top 25: Supplements Climbing the Charts," by Vicky
Uhland, Kristen Lewis, Christine Spehar. Natural Foods Merchandiser.
7/1/2004
http://www.naturalfoodsmerchandiser.com/ASP/articleDisplay.asp?strArticleId=1046&strSite=NFMSITE&Screen=CURRENTISSUE
"Calcium supplements were worth around $875 million in the US in 2002,
about 60 per cent of mineral sales."
From "Role of calcium in bone building less than exercise." 10/06/2004
http://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/news/news-ng.asp?id=52720-role-of-calcium
2001 sales: "According to the Euromonitor report Market for OTC
Healthcare in the USA, 2002 Edition, "Calcium supplements constitute
the largest component of U.S. dietary supplements, with a 2001 value
of $846.1 million, an increase of 4.4 percent from the previous year."
From "Flex: Joint and Bone Health Supplements Abound," By Brenda Porter
http://www.vitaminretailer.com/SIE/articles/Flex.htm
"VIACTIV® Multi-Vitamin Chew......join a patented line of
great-tasting chews including VIACTIV® Soft Calcium Chew, whose 2004
annual sales grew 20 percent over the previous year. ** It's the
fastest growing calcium supplement in the market."
From Johnson and Johnson 2004 Annual Report - Consumer Products
http://www.jnj.com/2004AnnualReport/features/consumer/
"The emphasis on calcium consumption in the recent surgeon general?s
report is likely to boost the popularity of a mineral that already
enjoys a strong association with bone health, say industry experts. *
And calcium is a major player in the supplement market, with annual
sales estimated at more than $800 million by industry sources."
From "Boning Up on Joint Care Ingredients," by Elizabeth Brewster.
Nutritional Outlook
http://www.nutritionaloutlook.com/article.php?ArticleID=2065
==
General sales data for calcium supplements - "Top 4 fastest-growing
supplements in drug stores," Drug Store News," by Michael Johnsen.
Drug Store News. Nov 8, 2004
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m3374/is_15_26/ai_n7069599
Scroll down to chart at bottom
Other bone products
===================
"Another ingredient gaining prominence is the milk protein
MicroLactin. "We?ve been in the market for about three years, but in
the last 12 months MicroLactin has really taken off," says Scott
Steil, executive director of sales and marketing for Humanetics Corp.
(Eden Prairie, MN), which markets MicroLactin concentrated milk
protein for joint health. "The crown jewel helping push MicroLactin is
FluidJoint, sold by PatentHealth. In the drug channel where FluidJoint
was launched, it has become the best-selling branded SKU in the entire
joint-care category."
From "Boning Up on Joint Care Ingredients," by Elizabeth Brewster.
Nutritional Outlook.
http://www.nutritionaloutlook.com/article.php?ArticleID=2065
==
"Although calcium is probably the most recognized food fortification
ingredient, it remains something of a novelty. Enriched flour and
bread must contain thiamine, riboflavin, niacin and iron, but calcium
is optional. because of today?s high interest from consumers, calcium
is finding its way into an assortment of new products."
From "Calcium Boosters." (Baking & Snack, May 1, 2005) by Rebeca López-
García, Ph.D. http://www.bakingbusiness.com/tech/channel.asp?ArticleID=74346
Growth Projections for calcium fortified foods
===============================================
The following article has and interesting table you might want to review:
"The market for bone benefits foods is growing at just over 4% per
annum (Leatherhead Food RA, 2002) and is expected to grow
significantly (Table 1).
Table 1: Global bone health foods market, 2000-05 (excluding Japan, in US $millions
Growth 2001 market value 2005 forecast value % change
Dairy products $715 $870 +22
Soy products $632 $785 +24
Cereal products $355 $462 +30
Total $2160 $2697 +25
From "Consumer Market for Bone Health Benefits: Is it a waiting
opportunity for the Alberta functional; food and nutraceuticals
industries?" Published: June 28, 2004. Last Reviewed/Revised on August
18, 2004.
http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/sis8738?OpenDocument
==
See "Added Calcium" in chart in following article:
"New products with health-related positioning claims, Jan 2001-June 2004
From "Fortified foods get functional," by A. Sloan. November 2004
http://www.ffnmag.com/ASP/588/Display-Article
==
A new study finds cow?s milk the most reliable source of calcium,
superior to calcium-fortified soy and rice beverages and many orange
juice brands. The study, led by Dr. Robert Heaney, a long-time calcium
expert and professor with Creighton University, appeared in the
January/February issue of Nutrition Today.
From "Checkoff-Funded Study Finds Milk the Most Reliable Source of
Calcium." February 2005 DAIRY CHECKOFF UPDATE.
http://www.dairycheckoff.com/check/hl0205.asp#b
==
Let me know what you think.
umiat
