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Q: Statistics: Need strong academic quotes on statistical forecasting ( No Answer,   0 Comments )
Question  
Subject: Statistics: Need strong academic quotes on statistical forecasting
Category: Business and Money > Economics
Asked by: austintex-ga
List Price: $60.00
Posted: 13 Jul 2005 19:38 PDT
Expires: 12 Aug 2005 19:38 PDT
Question ID: 543303
I need academic quotes (e.g. journals, textbooks, etc.) from
statistics on a rule of thumb about how many periods into the future
can be reasonably forecasted from using x number of historical
periods. For example, if someone uses 2 years of historical revenue
data, how many years into the future can they reasonalbe forecast?
1yr? 5yrs? 25yrs???

We have 2 years of historical data (annual not monthly) on revenue and
number of new customers. From this data, someone predicted long-term
future revenues and new customers for 25 years into the future. I want
to show this is rediculous. I need strong academic quotes showing that
statistically
speaking it is ridiculous to predict 25 years into the future from
only 2 years of historical data.
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