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Subject:
Statistics: Need strong academic quotes on statistical forecasting
Category: Business and Money > Economics Asked by: austintex-ga List Price: $60.00 |
Posted:
13 Jul 2005 19:38 PDT
Expires: 12 Aug 2005 19:38 PDT Question ID: 543303 |
I need academic quotes (e.g. journals, textbooks, etc.) from statistics on a rule of thumb about how many periods into the future can be reasonably forecasted from using x number of historical periods. For example, if someone uses 2 years of historical revenue data, how many years into the future can they reasonalbe forecast? 1yr? 5yrs? 25yrs??? We have 2 years of historical data (annual not monthly) on revenue and number of new customers. From this data, someone predicted long-term future revenues and new customers for 25 years into the future. I want to show this is rediculous. I need strong academic quotes showing that statistically speaking it is ridiculous to predict 25 years into the future from only 2 years of historical data. |
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