Clarification of Answer by
richard-ga
on
21 Jul 2005 05:57 PDT
Hello again.
I have been able to supplement my Answer with the following
information regarding lifetime arrest data. Thank you for your
patience while I put this together.
Two studies estimate cumulative risks of arrest rather than imprisonment:
Blumstein and Graddy 1983
Tillman 1987
http://www.jcpr.org/povsem/western_seminar.pdf
The Blumstein-Graddy Study (1968-1977)
In 1983, Alfred Blumstein and Elizabeth Graddy examined 1968-1977
arrest statistics from the country's fifty-six largest cities.23
Looking only at felony arrests, Blumstein and Graddy found that one
out of every four males living in a large city could expect to be
arrested for a felony at some time in his lifetime.24 When broken down
by race, however, a nonwhite male was three and a half times more
likely to have a felony arrest on his record than was a white male.25
Whereas only 14% of white males would be arrested, 51 % of nonwhite
males could anticipate being arrested for a felony at some time during
their lifetimes.26
23.See generally Alfred Blumstein & Elizabeth Graddy, Prevalence and
Recidivism Index Arrests: A Feedback Model, 16 LAW & SOC'Y REV. 265
(1981-82). The cities surveyed were: Birmingham, Phoenix, Tucson,
Oakland, Long Beach, Los Angeles, Sacramento, San Diego, San
Francisco, San Jose, Denver, Washington, D.C., Miami, Jacksonville,
Tampa, Atlanta, Chicago, Indianapolis, Wichita, Louisville, New
Orleans, Baltimore, Boston, Detroit, Minneapolis, St. Paul, Kansas
City, St. Louis, Omaha, Newark, Jersey City, Albuquerque, Buffalo,
Rochester, New York, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus,
Toledo, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Portland, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh,
Memphis, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, El Paso, Ft. Worth, Austin,
Norfolk, Seattle, Milwaukee, and Honolulu. Id. at 272 n.5.
Blumstein and Graddy did not include misdemeanors, which make up the
largest share of arrests and bookings, in their calculations. Had they
included misdemeanors, the percentage of nonwhite males who could
expect to be arrested and at least briefly jailed would have reached
Blumstein's original prediction of 90%. As appalling as Blumstein's
original numbers seemed, they were confirmed by others over the
ensuing two decades.27
27. See infra notes 28-50 and accompanying text (discussing studies
that confirm Blumstein's finding that 51% of nonwhite males could
anticipate being arrested for felony during their lifetimes).
http://www.anarchistblackcross.org/content/essays/articles/race/drag.html
The Tillman Study (1974-1986)
In 1987, Robert Tillman, a criminologist assigned to the California
Attorney General's Office, found a similar pattern in arrests of
nonwhite males in California, not over a lifetime but in the short
twelve year span between the ages of eighteen and thirty.28 Drawing
upon a 1974 cohort of eighteen year-old males of all races, Tillman
traced their arrest records between 1974 and 1986, when they turned
thirty. He found that almost one out of four had been arrested.29
However, when he broke the percentages down by race, he discovered
that two-thirds of the nonwhite adult males had been arrested and
jailed before completing their twenty-ninth year (41% for felonies)30
Tillman did not include juvenile arrests or arrests after age
thirty.31 In my opinion, had he included these, the lifetime risk of
arrest likely would have surpassed 85%. Moreover, Tillman drew his
cohort of eighteen year-olds from across the whole state of
California. Tillman included both rural and urban youth, not
exclusively city populations as in the Blumstein-Graddy study. In my
opinion, had he confined his sample only to inner-city minority youth,
the numbers arrested before completing their 29th year would have
approached 80%.
28. See generally Robert Tillman, The Size of the "Criminal
Population": The Prevalence and Incidence of Adult Arrest, 25
CRIMINOLOGY 561(1987).
Id.
Some of the data is also summarized here:
Participation rates.? For all offenses, 50-60% (urban) males are
arrested in their lifetime.? For Index Crimes 25% lifetime (14%
whites; 50% blacks)? Recidivism: 85-95%? Frequency rates (Lambda) for
active offenders (arrests in Washington DC & Detroit):? Aggravated
assault: 2-3 arrests per year.? Robbery: 3-5 arrests per year.?
Property offenses: more than 5 per year.? Auto theft: 3 in DC; 9 in
Detroit.
://www.google.com/url?sa=U&start=3&q=http://www.soc.washington.edu/users/matsueda/Notes%2520Lecture%2520Incapacitation.pdf&e=7168
Those studies appear to be all that there is
Richard-ga
