By walking you through a set of financial data for IBM, this
assignment will help you better understand how theoretical stock
prices are calculated; and how prices may react to market forces such
as risk and interest rates. You will use both the CAPM (Capital Asset
Pricing Model) and the Constant Growth Model (CGM) to arrive at IBM's
stock price. To get started, complete the following steps.
Find an estimate of the risk-free rate of interest, krf. To obtain
this value, go to Bloomberg.com: Market Data
[http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/index.html] and use the "U.S.
10-year Treasury" bond rate as the risk-free rate. In addition, you
also need a value for the market risk premium. Use an assumed market
risk premium of 7.5%.
Download this IBM Stock Information document (.pdf file). Please note
that the following information contained in this document must be used
to complete the subsequent questions.
IBM's beta (ß)
IBM's current annual dividend
IBM's 3-year dividend growth rate (g)
Industry P/E
IBM's EPS.
With the information you now have, use the CAPM to calculate IBM's
required rate of return or ks.
Use the CGM to find the current stock price for IBM. We will call this
the theoretical price or Po.
Now use appropriate Web resources to find IBM's current stock quote,
or P. Compare Po and P. Do you see any differences? Can you explain
what factors may be at work for such a difference in the two prices?
This section is especially important - with more weight in grading -
so you may want to do some study before answering such a question.
Explain your thoughts clearly.
Now assume the market risk premium has increased from 7.5% to 10%; and
this increase is due only to the increased risk in the market. In
other words, assume krf and stock's beta remains the same for this
exercise. What will the new price be? Explain what happened.
Recalculate IBM's stock using the P/E ratio model (pp. 350-1) and the
needed info found in the IBM pdf file. Explain why the present stock
price is different from the price arrived at using CGM (Constant
Growth Model). |
