will china be a power in 21st century?

Hi

"When China awakes, it will shake the world."
   - Napoleon Bonaparte 
China has already been in it's rich  history a major power:
"For centuries China stood as a leading civilization, outpacing the
rest of the world in the arts and sciences, but in the 19th and early
20th centuries, the country was beset by civil unrest, major famines,
military defeats, and foreign occupation. After World War II, the
Communists under MAO Zedong established an autocratic socialist system
that, while ensuring China's sovereignty, imposed strict controls over
everyday life and cost the lives of tens of millions of people. After
1978, his successor DENG Xiaoping and other leaders focused on
market-oriented economic development and by 2000 output had
quadrupled. For much of the population, living standards have improved
dramatically and the room for personal choice has expanded, yet
political controls remain tight."
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html


According to S. K. Singh, in his Thesis titled "China : Will the 20th
century giant become a 21st century superpower?"
- China will indeed have a major role in affecting the destiny on all
mankind upon the earth. But will it become a  Superpower like the USA
or former USSR - answer is no.

"I.   Purpose :  The purpose of this paper is to examine if China
will become a "superpower" by the 21st century.

II.  Thesis :  Current indications are that China will become a major
world power by the 21st century unless
certain events slow it down.  What are these factors and what effect
could they have on the country.

II:  Data :  While the superpower of the world are reducing their
nuclear arsenal China is quietly enhancing its already
formidable nuclear and conventional military capability.  With the
world's largest population of over a billion people China already
enjoys the status of a giant on the international scene.  Yet it is
not regarded as superpower because of its inability to influence world
events.The country's tumultuous political history from the time of the
communist revolution shows how changes in leadership leads to changes
in policy and, at times, is detrimental to the country's progress. 
Its relations with the United States have improved in the last two
decades but are still not warm enough.  Recent overtures made to it by
the Soviet Union have yielded some results but are also far from
desirable.

IV : Conclusion :  The country is going to face some delays in
achieving its goals cut whatever happens to its people is bound to
affect the destiny of mankind on Earth"
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/1988/SSK.htm



Another paper titled "China: the Emerging Superpower " by Major H.A.
Hynes claims that despite being technological behind the Western
powers a huge transformation is already underway and China will emerge
within the coming decades in to a major power. But does not see China
a threat to the dominance of USA as THE Global Superpower, but more as
a military threat.

"...China's history in the 20th century has been marked by occupation
and civil war. This experience has fueled its strong desire for Great
Power status and at the same time put it decades behind the West in
technological development. Under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping,
China has undergone a transformation, which has produced a tremendous
economic turnaround. China is now a major trading nation which has
built up an impressive foreign currency holding and is predicted to be
the world's largest economy by 2010. The Chinese leadership has
recognized that economic reform is the only way to achieve the status
it desires on its own terms...The economic and military transformation
of China is well underway. It is critical that the West not be naive
to its intentions. With its ambitions concerning territorial claims,
the challenges it will face providing for its population and the
insecure and suspicious nature of its communist government, Canada and
the West face a potentially serious threat from China in the future. "
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/doctrine/0046.htm 


What creates a 'Superpower' and does China qualify? One BBC.co.uk
reader commented in 2001 that:
"A superpower is defined as a global force that can influence
geopolitical and military events in every corner of the globe. China
currently can not do this. However, if given the opportunity to
develop their ICBM capabilities and maintain the country's
nationalistic fervor, they will come to rival if not surpass the
waning Americans. It would be a very big mistake for the Americans to
take the Chinese lightly. For they have only one goal in mind:
domination over the capitalistic American super power. "

Another reader commented:
"I think it is most likely China will become a Global Superpower "if"
it can overcome some of its internal problems just as the US did with
the Civil War and The Great Depression. People must remember that the
US began its emergence as a super power around World War I and grew
rapidly afterwards. Although China may have some internal problems, as
do all countries, I believe the Chinese people are more than capable
of rallying as a whole to protect or defend what they all have in
common, China is their home.
Bill "

Read more on this discussion:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/talking_point/1272691.stm

Some upto date statistics on China:
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html



Please let me know if any part of this answer need clarification.
Regards
-Landog

yes!

Also Yes - and watch out for Russia

One has an infinite supply of labour
- and the other is sitting on a goldmine of resources

maybe NOT...!

China will got a serious trouble in the 21st. century. The problem
will arise from her demographics aspect.  I believe that demographics
is the strongest power on determining a country's future.

In mid 1970s, The government of China imposed "one child policy" - a
very restrictive policy to restrain population growth.  The problem is
that the policy severly distort Chinese demographics.  The one child
policy drove parents to seek of having a boy instead of girl - and now
China got problem with sex ratio.  Boy-to-girl average ratio in China
now stands at 1.13 to 1. In some area of China, the sex ratios even
worse. This means that the future China will have a decline in
population growth.  The country's will getting old VERY FAST.

You can't build a world super power on an aging country.

The one child policy also poses further problem with social security. 
Because of having only a child - a family has to support 2 pairs of
parents in their old age.  And you know well that people tend to live
longer in the future.  That means the financial and social burdens of
supporting old age people will increase dramatically.  The only way to
relieve this pressure is by having productivity increased.  But can
you increase productivity by 400% over a generation?  I don't think
so.  Especially if your economy depends on cheap labor which only has
a low margin advantage.

Other problems with China economy are about Banking Bad Debt (which
even more serious problem compared to Japan's problem in the 90s),
very inefficient SOEs (State Owned Enterprises) which now employs 80
Million people, and the non-existent of adequate national social
security scheme.

China need to pass the "purgatory process" of economic "correction". 
And until that happened - we never know the truth of the country's
prospect.

@hotradero-ga 

I dont't agree with your conclusions - but do not dispute your facts

From a reproductive point of view, males are almost redundant
- they are useful for heavy engineering and labouring
- but they are pretty useless for the higher tech industries

Not that any of that is remotely relevant to becoming a super power

>You can't build a world super power on an aging country.

You can, and that is the odd thing, provided you have an unlimited
supply of inexpensive but trainable labour, it does not really matter
if the hinterlands are full of geriatrics - they can survive on their
own efforts, or get small stipends from their offspring - or just drop
dead.

The male/female imbalance was brought about by, delicately put, a
degree of voluntary intervention. There is no reason why the same
tactics should not be applied to geriatrics - although it is unlikely
to be necessary as they will be in the backwoods.

Banks are funny things, they are as solid as rocks until people start
to worry about them. At that point they become water.

The Japs and Koreans have propped up technically bankrupt banks, the
same has happened in many other countries. Mostly it is smoke and
mirrors, but it does not really matter if everybody knows that
government ( or a 'lifeboat' ) will step in.

Demographics only matter if you have a rigid system of ethics, and
that ethical system is geared to looking after (essentially) dead
wood.

The Chinese economy is rather peculiar, not that different from the
Japanese, in so far as it is 'joined up'.

Applying 'Western' ethics - or values to China (or even Japan) is a waste of time.