What is the future (next 6-18 months) of messaging, MMS or WAP Push?

Here's what I know (or think I know):
1.  There is appetite within businesses to send users enhanced
messages, with branding/offers/info that cannot be supported by SMS
2.  SMS has fantastic take-up and understanding though!  Everyone
knows it and can use it
3.  WAP Push messages can be opened by about 80% of handsets.  However
(a) Users don't know how to open them (b) How to open - and where they
are stored - varies greatly by handset manufacturer (c) People are
reluctant to Connect To GPRS for a message when they don't know what
is inside (d) This has been used as a device by some spammers and
"unsavoury" (adult) content
4.  MMS can only be opened by 20% of handsets on the market.  However,
within this 20%, most people would know how to open the message (do
you agree?).  At what point will the 20% turn in to 80%?

I am looking at the UK market here so US-centric answers may not be relevant.

hello linermyboy,

Why do you wish to compare WAP Push and MMS. Both have their benefits
in their own business contexts. Infact, both will prevail in the
markey for different kind of applications.

Yes, WAP push is useful for any phone which has WAP browser. It's more
useful for those apps which is based on subscriptions.
Weather/stocks/messaging etc.
i really doubt that 3G services like WiFi- Broadband, UMTS will
provide a jump to these *PUSH* apps. These services are more helpful
in providing PULL services. Having these 3G services also means that
devices are getting more powerful day by day. With recent phones able
to process word/spreadsheets/IMS apps, i doubt that people will look
forward to PUSH. They would like to access on demand. (PULL) because
they have powerful device, good connectivity.

Cameras in the phones are making MMS popular and i believe that the
market share of camera phones will be increasing every month. more
useful for apps like picture albums, video library. Additionally, a
convergence among MMS and email apps is pretty easier. So that's again
plus point. It has both fun side and business side to it and it brings
more user involvement and interactivity. SMS-TV can be extended to
MMS-TV concept.

So, my bets are on MMS with little support from WAP push. 

Not sure how much useful is this to you. but my 2 cents.