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Subject:
How does intrade work?
Category: Business and Money Asked by: pcventures-ga List Price: $10.00 |
Posted:
16 Oct 2005 06:09 PDT
Expires: 15 Nov 2005 05:09 PST Question ID: 580890 |
No matter how many times I read their site, I still can't figure out how intrade works. I think it's interesting that through Intrade a person can place a sort of "bet" on a particular event happening. What I find most interesting is that there's a "contract" that Bin Laden will be captured or neutralized by Dec 31 of this year. I'm sure this won't happen, so I want to structure a bet "against" this happening. How would I do this on Intrade? For the record, this is one bet I'd be almost happy to lose... |
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There is no answer at this time. |
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Subject:
Re: How does intrade work?
From: jago8-ga on 16 Oct 2005 13:57 PDT |
It works just like any other futures market. If no researcher picks this up in a day or two I'll tell you how to structure your Osama bet if you like, but you should be able to work it out from the "How Does It Work?" "Show Me How How to Place an Order" George Bush re-election example in the Help & FAQS. I'm not meaning to be unhelpful, but it is not a good idea to get into futures trading if you don't understand it - it could cost you a lot of money. |
Subject:
Re: How does intrade work?
From: pcventures-ga on 16 Oct 2005 18:01 PDT |
jago, I promise to exhause the site's resources, if you agree to tell me how to construct the "osama" bet. Thanks! |
Subject:
Re: How does intrade work?
From: esmjb-ga on 16 Oct 2005 18:19 PDT |
if you believe this event will not occur then you must sell contracts. you can do this by selling the best bid (currently 7.5) or by working an offer, meaning offering to sell it at any price, say 9, and then hoping somebody else buys it from you. lets say you sell one contract at 7.5, the most you can earn is 75 cents if osama is not captured. however, if you sell one contract at 7.5 and he is captured, well the contract expires at 100 and you have just lost $9.25. to me this is an extremely poor risk/reward ratio and i wouldnt even consider making this bet but to each his own... |
Subject:
Re: How does intrade work?
From: jago8-ga on 18 Oct 2005 13:50 PDT |
Yep of course esmbj is right, you need to sell the osama contract. The fact that the price is as low as 7.5 (= 75 cents) menas that nearly everyone agrees with you that he won't get captured by 31/12. If you sell enough contracts that you make a nice little profit if you're right - say you aim for $75 profit - well then if you're wrong, your loss would be $925 (and that's all ignoring transaction fees ). I agree with esmbj that this is prettty bad odds..... |
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