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Q: Futures and options ( Answered 4 out of 5 stars,   2 Comments )
Question  
Subject: Futures and options
Category: Business and Money > Finance
Asked by: futuresandoptions-ga
List Price: $200.00
Posted: 31 Oct 2005 08:28 PST
Expires: 30 Nov 2005 08:28 PST
Question ID: 587052
How can one best measure the growth of use of futures and options in
the global capital markets for the last decade or so.  Please provide
supporting statistics for at least 2-3 methods of measurement.

Request for Question Clarification by nancylynn-ga on 04 Nov 2005 22:17 PST
Hello futuresandoptions-ga:

I just want to make sure I understand what you want: I have found a
2005 chart showing growth in volume of futures trading (but it's on an
annual basis; not a decade-long study), broken down by category, and
by U.S. and non-U.S.

I've also found a few studies that examine and compare forecasting
models or measurements, like GARCH.

Can you please clarify which you want: both -- or maybe neither?! If
I'm off-track, let me know.

Best regards,
nancylynn-ga
Google Answers Researcher

Clarification of Question by futuresandoptions-ga on 07 Nov 2005 13:39 PST
Sorry for not responding sooner, I was about to give up on the
question and just today realized you did respond.

It sounds as if the chart is definitely one of the things I want,
except it is not clear to me if you have the annual data going back
for how long?

What is also not clear to me is what these models forecast, the use of
futures and options?  what does GARCH stand for?

Thanks to you and to the people who posted the comments.  It is my
first time using this service so I do not know correct procedure. 
Hopefully this is the way of the future and lots of people can
benefit.

Please let me know if more details of the data you found (for example,
this is data from CBOT), and if it is ok, let's assume this is one of
two or three ways to measure its growth.  If you can find one or two
other ways that would be great (for example, does this data capture
all futures and options traded globally?  does it capture single-stock
futures data?  or any other indicator?)

Thank you vey much.

Request for Question Clarification by nancylynn-ga on 07 Nov 2005 15:59 PST
Hi.

Sorry you're frustrated, but your question is kind of tough! 

I can't come up with anything that really seems to meet your needs. 

Search strings like "measure growth of futures and options" brought up
several studies comparing methods for measuring or forecasting
volatility, including linear and non-linear. I also found a paper
discussing methods for predicting prices in futures and options.

But I think I misunderstood you at first: what you meant by "use of"
is popularity or growth in volume? Correct?

I can't find anything about models or tools for measuring the
popularity or growth. I did find a chart showing volume changes from
2003 to 2004.

The study -- actually, article -- I found provides an annual volume
growth survey comparing the years 2003 and 2004, broken down into
"U.S." and "non-U.S."

The article also discusses some factors in the increased growth in
volume, such as common clearing and  "the CBOT also changed electronic
platforms, adopting Liffe Connect in lieu of its original a/c/e
system. I don?t think it was a coincidence that contract volume was up
34% in 10-year note futures and 43% in 5-year note futures. In
Eurodollar futures, total volume was up 43%."

I also found an article -- with statistics comparing 2004 to 2005 --
concluding that growth is outpacing the Kospi Effect.

So, I'm not at all sure that I'm coming up with what you want.

If it sounds to you like I'm way off-track here, maybe you could
provide some more clarification.

nancylynn-ga
Google Answers Researcher

Request for Question Clarification by nancylynn-ga on 07 Nov 2005 19:37 PST
Here's the best material I've found:

From the November 2004 issue of SFO magazine: "COMMODITIES: Ivy League
Study Plants Them in the Mainstream ? Finally!," by: Gail Osten:
http://www.sfomag.com/homefeaturedetail.asp?ID=775417807&MonthNameID=November&YearID=2004

This article previews a study, being conducted by "Wharton professor
Gary Gorton and Yale School of Management professor K. Geert
Rouwenhorst," that covers the futures market over the past 45 years.

"SIDEBAR
-------------------------------------
Measuring the Results: The Surprises

Here?s how Drs. Rouwenhorst and Gorton came to their conclusions. They
created an equally weighted performance index of commodity futures,
based on data from the Commodities Research Bureau. They then compared
the performance of their commodity index to the Ibbotson corporate
bond index and the S&P 500 index from July 1959 through March 2004.
All three data series were deflated by the CPI index in order to
create an inflation-adjusted performance for the various asset
classes."

I found Dr. Rouwenhorst's homepage:
http://faculty.som.yale.edu/geert/
Click on  "The Long-term Properties of Commodity Futures" to bring up:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=560042

There, scroll down to the subheader "SSRN Electronic Paper Collection"
and under that you'll see icons where you can download a draft of the
study. I downloaded from SSRN.

The other resources I found compare only two years; I couldn't find
any studies that covered the '90s to the present.

"March 29: FIA Annual Volume Survey - The Invigorating Effects of
Electronic Trading," by Galen Burghardt, published March 29, 2005, at
GARP (Global Association of Risk Professionals).
http://www.garp.com/risknews/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2005-03-29-10515.html
Scroll down to tables.

"Trading Volume - New World Order, Exchange Growth in the Americas
Shaking Things Up," by Megan DeGrandis, published January 27, 2005:
http://www.garp.com/risknews/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2005-01-27-10130.html

Includes single stock futures. Scroll down to tables  "Global Futures
and Options Volume by Sector" and  "Top 20 Derivatives Exchanges by
Volume Exchange," comparing data from January 2003 to January 2004.

"New Directions in Exchange Strategy," by Will Acworth, Futures
Industry magazine, un-dated, but appears to be 2004
http://216.109.125.130/search/cache?p=indicators+AND++growth+AND++futures+and+options+&prssweb=Search&ei=UTF-8&fl=0&u=www.fiafii.org/fimagazi-1929.asp%3Fa%3D970&w=indicators+growth+futures+options&d=fOaJE2FULnHg&icp=1&.intl=us

"Global Futures and Options Volume - Steady Growth at Most Exchanges
Outweighs Kospi Effect," by Will Acworth and Megan McGregor, October
19, 2005:
http://www.riskcenter.com/story.php?id=11649

Please let me know if this is acceptable. If not, perhaps you could
provide further clarication for me.

Best regards,
nancylynn-ga
Google Answers Researcher

Request for Question Clarification by nancylynn-ga on 08 Nov 2005 19:03 PST
In addition to the study I cited for you in my last RFC, I've also
found a survey showing AIG growth from 1994 to 2004 (criteria:
weighting and rebalancing), and a study of futures growth in Europe
(criteria: open interest) from 2002 to 2004.

Would this information, in addition to the data I cited in my prior
RFC, be sufficient as an answer?

Best,
nancylynn-ga
Google Answers Researcher

Clarification of Question by futuresandoptions-ga on 09 Nov 2005 07:15 PST
It will defintely help me get to the answer:

The answer is, for example, one way to measure the growth in use of
futures and options is to measure the increase in contracts traded by
the CBOT from 1990 till today.  (I found that by now from the CBOT
website)

Another way to mesaure it would be by measuring the increase of number
of futures exchanges globally in the last decade....and so on.

Your references are definitely helpful for me to answer the question,
but I still have quite a bit of work to get there.  I do realize the
question was complicated.

I am unsure of proper procedure to compensate for your help.  Please
let me know.  Also, if you do find anything else please shoot it this
way.

Thanks you very much.

Request for Question Clarification by nancylynn-ga on 09 Nov 2005 07:58 PST
Thanks for getting back to me. Your comments help bring your question
into much sharper focus for me.

I'll do some more hunting around and get back to you.

nancylynn-ga
Google Answers Researcher
Answer  
Subject: Re: Futures and options
Answered By: nancylynn-ga on 09 Nov 2005 21:39 PST
Rated:4 out of 5 stars
 
At the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, you can see the full list
of registered exchanges, and the years that they registered, under the
report "Designated Contract Markets Registered with the CFTC"
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/deadcms_table.htm
(Be sure to scroll all the way down -- you'll see data going back decades.)

Also click on these reports:
 
"DCM Applications Pending 
Boards of Trade Whose Designation Has Been Vacated 
DCMs That Are Notice Registered with the SEC as Exchanges" 

At the World Federation of Exchanges:
http://www.world-exchanges.org/WFE/home.Asp?nav=ie

"EQUITY DERIVATIVES AND CASH EQUITY TRADING. Concentration and
Notional Value Comparisons. Analysis of Figures 1995-2003":
http://www.world-exchanges.org/publications/Equity%20derivatives%20and%20cash%20equity%20trading.pdf

"The structure of the report is: 

1 Regional development of equity derivatives markets 

2. Development of cash equity markets 

3. Cash equity versus equity derivative volumes"

OTHER RESOURCES:

The Global Competitiveness of U.S. Futures Markets Revisited, a 1999 report 
from Division of Economic Analysis
Commodity Futures Trading Commission:
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/compete/deaglobal_competitiveness.htm

Scroll down to "The Continued Growth of Worldwide Trading Volume." (You'll 
see a chart.)

"The dramatic increase in worldwide exchange-traded futures and option 
activity that took place throughout the 1980s has continued in the 1990s 
(see chart A). Total worldwide trading volume for futures and options 
combined reached a record 1,482 million contracts in 1998 (see table I).[5]

"By way of comparison, in 1993, the last year covered in the 1994 Study, 
volume was 890 million contracts. These figures compare to worldwide volume 
of 272 million contracts in 1986, the first year covered by the 1994 Study. 
The absolute increase in volume over the last five years (1994-98) of 592 
million contracts is nearly equal to the increase experienced over the 
eight-year period (1986-1993) covered by the 1994 Study (618 million 
contracts). The significantly lower rate of growth over the latter period, 
67 percent, compared to the former period, 227 percent, reflects the fact 
that the base volume of trading was much lower in 1986 (272 million 
contracts) than in 1994 (890 million contracts). For the same reason, the 
mean annual growth rate in worldwide futures and option trading volume over 
the 1994-1998 period was 13 percent compared to 33 percent for the 1986-1993 
period. . ."

A comparison of futures and options from 1994-2004, "CBOT DJ-AIGCI Futures
Reference Guide 2005," from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT):
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/cont_detail/0,3206,963+13327,00.html?link=rss

"By relying on factors that are both endogenous to the futures markets
(liquidity) and exogenous to the futures markets (production), the DJ-AIGCI
provides a unique measure of the relative significance of its component
commodities."

Keep scrolling down to:

"III. Annual Reweighting and Rebalancing
The target weights for the DJ-AIGCI are determined annually by the Index
Oversight Committee, announced in July and implemented the following
January. In addition to reweighting, the DJ-AIGCI includes another critical
step that differentiates it as a benchmark. Once a year, at the same time
that the index is reweighted, it is rebalanced on a price-percentage basis."

You may also want to download more data from CBOT at its "Data Inventory"
page (data going back to 1972):
http://cbotdataexchange.if5.com/FeaturesDataInventory.aspx

"Product Profile: Single Stock Futures Thriving in Europe," by Tom Nicholls,
September/October 2004 issue of Futures Industry magazine:
http://www.fiafii.org/fimagazi-1929.asp?iss=147&a=965
"Open interest, an important measure of market depth, stood at 1.5 million
contracts [on MEFF] at the end of June, up very slightly from the year-ago
date. At Euronext.liffe, open interest in the USFs stood at just under
650,000 contracts at the end of June, up 69% from the year-ago date, but
still less than half the open interest at Meff."

Scroll down to the bottom of the page to see charts from three European
exchanges, comparing 2002 to 2004.

From the November 2004 issue of SFO magazine: "COMMODITIES: Ivy League Study
Plants Them in the Mainstream - Finally!," by: Gail Osten:
http://www.sfomag.com/homefeaturedetail.asp?ID=775417807&MonthNameID=November&YearID=2004

This article previews a study, being conducted by  "Wharton professor Gary
Gorton and Yale School of Management professor K. Geert Rouwenhorst," that
covers the futures market over the past 45 years.

"SIDEBAR
Measuring the Results: The Surprises

Here's how Drs. Rouwenhorst and Gorton came to their conclusions. They
created an equally weighted performance index of commodity futures, based on
data from the Commodities Research Bureau. They then compared the
performance of their commodity index to the Ibbotson corporate bond index
and the S&P 500 index from July 1959 through March 2004. All three data
series were deflated by the CPI index in order to create an
inflation-adjusted performance for the various asset classes."

I found Dr. Rouwenhorst's homepage:
http://faculty.som.yale.edu/geert/
Click on  "The Long-term Properties of Commodity Futures" to bring up:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=560042

There, scroll down to the subheader "SSRN Electronic Paper Collection" and
under that you'll see icons where you can download a draft of the study. I
downloaded from SSRN.

"March 29: FIA Annual Volume Survey - The Invigorating Effects of Electronic
Trading," by Galen Burghardt, published March 29, 2005, at GARP (Global
Association of Risk Professionals).
http://www.garp.com/risknews/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2005-03-29-10515.html
Scroll down to tables.

"Trading Volume - New World Order, Exchange Growth in the Americas Shaking
Things Up," by Megan DeGrandis, published January 27, 2005:
http://www.garp.com/risknews/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2005-01-27-10130.html

Includes single stock futures. Scroll down to tables  "Global Futures and
Options Volume by Sector" and  "Top 20 Derivatives Exchanges by Volume
Exchange," comparing data from January 2003 to January 2004.

"New Directions in Exchange Strategy," by Will Acworth, Futures Industry
magazine, un-dated, but appears to be 2004
http://216.109.125.130/search/cache?p=indicators+AND++growth+AND++futures+and+options+&prssweb=Search&ei=UTF-8&fl=0&u=www.fiafii.org/fimagazi-1929.asp%3Fa%3D970&w=indicators+growth+futures+options&d=fOaJE2FULnHg&icp=1&.intl=us

"Global Futures and Options Volume - Steady Growth at Most Exchanges
Outweighs Kospi Effect," by Will Acworth and Megan McGregor, October 19,
2005:
http://www.riskcenter.com/story.php?id=11649

Search Strings:

measure growth of futures and options AND global
measure growth of use of futures and options +capital markets
reliable OR best measure of growth of futures and options
research OR study AND reliable OR best measure of growth of futures and
options
best method measure futures and options
best method measure futures and options + global capital markets
measure OR forecast AND  futures and options AND global capital markets
predict OR forecast AND options futures AND global capital markets AND
research OR study
reliable OR best measure OR method AND growth of futures and options
VaR  + futures and options + global markets
growth in global futures markets +past decade
how have futures and options performed AND global OR worldwide
global capital markets AND measure AND popularity AND  futures and options
growth of international futures exchanges since 1990s 
increase commodities exchanges worldwide decade

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Best regards,
nancylynn-ga
Google Answers Researcher
futuresandoptions-ga rated this answer:4 out of 5 stars
The answer was good.  The question was tough and probably amorphous,
so I would rate myself below the Researcher in how I asked the
question.  Thanks!!

Comments  
Subject: Re: Futures and options
From: scubajim-ga on 31 Oct 2005 14:38 PST
 
Look at daily volumne of contract trades.  Since each contract is
worth a particular amount if you have more of them, that would be
growth.  You could also look at how many different people are
trading.(are just the same people buying more contracts or more people
buying those greater number of contracts.)
Subject: Re: Futures and options
From: awesomeo3000-ga on 04 Nov 2005 16:07 PST
 
The sum total of market values of futures and options in the market
place is, by definition, the use of futures and options.  The growth
of the use of these things is equal to the growth of the total market
valuation.

If this is not what you mean by the "use of futures and options" please clarify.

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