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Subject:
Seven Rats
Category: Science Asked by: porkribs-ga List Price: $20.00 |
Posted:
07 Nov 2005 17:39 PST
Expires: 07 Dec 2005 17:39 PST Question ID: 590324 |
When I was a kid, our house had rats. An exterminator came, caught one, looked at it, and said that it was a particular type of rat that always came in packs of sevens. There would be seven, he said; if there were eight, it meant there were at least 14. OK, I'm pretty sure I'm not imagining this, but I was young so I'm not sure. So: Is there really a type of rat that comes in packs of seven? The answer to this question must be definitive: either a pointer to some site that discusses this type of rat, or a pointer to some site that says something like "A common rumor about rat X is that it comes in packs of seven; this is not true". Also please include your search strategy. Thank you! |
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There is no answer at this time. |
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Subject:
Re: Seven Rats
From: brix24-ga on 07 Nov 2005 18:40 PST |
Perhaps this was a roof rat; they have about seven in a litter. They are more common in Texas and the South than the Norway rat. Elsewhere they tend to be outcompeted by the Norway rat. From http://www.nsrl.ttu.edu/tmot1/rattratt.htm "Distribution in Texas. Common over most of Texas, especially in towns. Habits. Roof rats are largely commensals and live in close association with man. They seldom become established as feral animals as do the Norway rats; however, in Lavaca County they have been found throughout the county, in the towns, and on the farms. They inhabited grocery and drug stores, warehouses, feed stores, and poultry houses and were very common in cotton gins and associated grain warehouses. On the farms they lived in barns and corncribs. They may live near the ground, but usually they frequent the attics, rafters, and crossbeams of the buildings. They make typical runways along pipes, beams or wires, up and down the studding, or along the horizontal ceiling joists, often leaving a dark-colored layer of grease and dirt to mark their travelways. Like the Norway rat, the roof rat is largely nocturnal and only where populations are relatively high does one see them frequently in the daytime. There is some indication that the larger and more aggressive Norway rat is supplanting the roof rat in many parts of the United States. In the southern United States, however, the roof rat is by far the more common of the two." "Roof rats breed throughout the year, with two peaks of production ? in February and March and again in May and June. The period of least activity is in July and August. The gestation period is approximately 21 days, and the number of young per litter averages almost seven." ----- Re Norway rats: http://www.ratbehavior.org/Stats.htm Norway rats are said to have a litter size of "6-14 offspring." This site doesn't indicate what the average litter size is. ----- The following site has some information on the black rat (or roof rat). It gives a variable litter size. It also has photos. http://www.the-piedpiper.co.uk/th1b.htm "This little fellow probably originated in south-east Asia from where it has spread to large areas of the world. It arrived in Europe in the early Middle Ages and became very widespread until it was displaced by the brown rat. It can be identified by it's tail, which is always longer than the combined length of the head and body. It is also slimmer and more agile than the Norwegian or Brown rat. Its size varies according to it's environment and food supply, and comparison of the two pictures on this page show that colour is not a guide to species. The Black rat is also known as the Ships rat and or Roof rat." "Black rats were responsible for spreading the Bubonic Plague during the Middle Ages as they carried the flea which transmitted this disease. In most parts of Europe black rats have been completely eliminated, but are still common in port areas where they find their way ashore. They are associated with man to a greater extent than the brown rat, but have a greater need for warmth and hence do not tend to occur in the open in central and northern Europe, but are more common in tropical and subtropical areas. " "The litter size can be somewhat larger at between 5 to 10 per litter." Search strategy: seven rats Search strategy: rat litter (not a good criterion, gives too many "rat litter" (ala "kitty litter" references)) Search strategy: rat litter size Search strategy: black rat |
Subject:
Re: Seven Rats
From: pforcelli-ga on 07 Nov 2005 18:47 PST |
FYI: Average Litter size for a R. norvegicus is 10 pups. I have seen litters as large as 18 in the lab. |
Subject:
Re: Seven Rats
From: tigger71-ga on 07 Nov 2005 21:41 PST |
Exterminators are notorious jokesters... I have an old buddy that is one, and he is always yanking the chain of one of his customers with crazy stories, etc. I don't know how old you are, or more importantly, how old the exterminator is/was, but there was a very popular movie in the mid-60's called "Robin and the Seven Hoods", and guess who played the "Hoods"... It was the members of the original "Rat Pack", with Sinatra as one of the crime bosses. Maybe his story was just an attempt to be funny or timely. I have studied a lot of biology, as a private endeavor, and have never run accross a mammal that can predictably always have the same number of multiple young, and the few rare examples are not in the rodent families. Further complicating the possibility of this being true is the simple fact that outside the human species, the mortality rates of infants is very high. In a litter of rats, even in the best conditions, it likely that only 50%-60% would survive to maturity, due to competition amoung siblings, disease, predation, etc... So, it is A)unbelievable that a rat would predictably have exactly any number of young, and B) highly unlikely to impossible to believe that all would survive. Chances are more likely that the exterminator was either scaring your family into buying more services from him, or being funny and making a off-the-cuff reference to the aforementioned movie.. Hope this helps!! -Rob bradfro@yahoo.com http://www.robbradford.com |
Subject:
Re: Seven Rats
From: porkribs-ga on 07 Nov 2005 22:07 PST |
Brix: great research! Though I believe the seven would have included the two adults - he wasn't talking about just the litter. Pforcelli: thank you for the added info! Tigger: you very well may be right about the exterminator pulling our legs. But something I'd left out before: at the end, we'd caught exactly seven rats. |
Subject:
Re: Seven Rats
From: brix24-ga on 08 Nov 2005 05:04 PST |
I forgot to add that I first searched the urban legends site: www.snopes.com |
Subject:
Re: Seven Rats
From: tigger71-ga on 08 Nov 2005 09:18 PST |
Actually, I don't know why I didn't think of this before, but this can very easily and definitively be proven to be a hoax mathematically. The answer was right there in front of our eyes all along. When you mentioned in one of your responses that you were assuming that two of the rats were sexually mature adults, it struck me that this is actually very similar to classic poulation growth models in mathematics. So, here is definitive proof that this must be false.... Oh, before I get to the math, one even more obvious point. If one of the seven were to die for some reason, does this mean that another would spontaneously appear or that the sexually mature adults would have a litter of 1 or 8 to compensate and keep the ratio? This seems way far fetched... OK, so the mathematical proof, and you can do this ina simple spreadsheet. Lets assume that we start off with a perfect seven group, which consists of the 2 parents and 5 children. The average rat reaches sexual maturity in about 3 months and they tend to have litters, quite conveniently, about 3 months apart, during sexual maturity. So, we can simply do a spreadsheet with four columns, "Sexually Mature Females" (SMF), "Sexually Mature Males" (SMM), "Young Females" (YF), and "Young Males" (YM). So to start in month zero, we have SMF=1, SMM=1, YF=3, YM=2. I arbitrarilly split the 5 young 3/2, but you can do it any way you like and the proof remains consistent. Now at Month = 3, all the young are sexually mature, as are the parents still, so now we have 4 SMF's that will presumably have 5 pups each, as this is what was necessary to make seven in the first generation. Again, I will arbitrarilly split the 50% YM and YF populations, but the result looks like this. SMF=4 SMM=3, YF=10, YM=10. Total Population = 27. 27 is not evenly divisible by 7, so we have proof in the second generation that the theory is false. I carried this out in my spreadsheet to 20 generations, and did different arbitrary splits of the yong populations, and as chance would have it, only 2 of the generations in 20 were ever divisible by 7, which we would expect thru random chance anyway. I even monkeyed with mortality rates after one year, and still couldn't make it fit the seven theory. At this point, I'd be willing to wager a million bucks that the statement was either false, a joke, or misleading. My exterminator always tells me that if he finds a single termite, there are a thousand more we don't see, which I'm sure is true, but by 1000, he means there are many many others and not that there are exactly 1000. I've heard this comment about lots of pests. For every cockroach you see there are a hundred you don't... etc. It is interesting that you caught exactly 7, but I am absolutely 100% certain that it was random chance. Hope this helps... Rob |
Subject:
Re: Seven Rats
From: porkribs-ga on 08 Nov 2005 09:26 PST |
Tigger (Rob): LOVE the proof! Though wouldn't it throw things off if, say, there was some N% chance that one of the litter was sterile? Or perhaps that the group of seven consisted of N adults and M children (one of the others being a sister or a brother, let's say)? Nonetheless, I'd bet with you that what the exterminator said was either a hoax or a joke. Thank you again, Porkribs |
Subject:
Re: Seven Rats
From: porkribs-ga on 08 Nov 2005 09:28 PST |
As I think about it, at the time I sort of thought that the seven rats were some random grouping. Like not necessarily family, just a group of seven that always travel together. Whatever that means in the rat world. Porkribs |
Subject:
Re: Seven Rats
From: tigger71-ga on 08 Nov 2005 16:57 PST |
OK, We can finally put these rats to bed. I have three final thoughts that ought to "exterminate" this theory, once and for all. =) One, is an observation of rat behavior. The second, is an improved spreadsheet with your added hypothetical sterility and original mix rates. And the third is a quote from my old exterminator buddy. OK, so first?. I have to admit that I laughed out loud at the thought of the rats traveling in packs of seven. Not because of the thought of seven rats per se, but because I started playing out the conversations in my head. I imagined a family of rats in the attic of my house, and one day they do a quick count and realize that they are no longer a multiple of seven. So they sit down with all the family and they have a tough conversation. ?Your father and I just realized that we now number 18, and as you all know, we can only have multiples of seven at any one location, so I?m going to have to ask 4 of you to leave immediately, so that we can number 14 here at this address. So, Minney, Mickey, Mindy, and Mikey, you will stay here with us. Fred, Barney, Linda, and George, I?m afraid we?ll have to ask you to leave. Oh wait a minute, if only four of you leave, you won?t be a group of seven. Darn? Honey, what should we do?? LOL. OK, I?m seriously flicted for even having a thought like this, but it does prove my first point, that if a pack ever reached a non-7-multiple, the pack that would break away would have to be a non-7 multiple, or it would leave the rest with a non-7. Basically, if 7 ever left, they would leave behind a non-viable combination. Also, obviously, rats aren?t smart enough to figure this out anyway. Next, I adjusted my spreadsheet to represent your sterility theory and your original-7 distributions. My spreadsheet now allows for you to make any assumption you like about the mix, the mortality rates, and the sterility rates and model, and the likelihood of having male/female offspring. After trying about 20 combinations of differing assumptions, it always ended the same way, about 1 in seven generations would have an even multiple of seven in population (i.e. random chance). If you send me an e-mail address, I?ll send you the XL sheet and you can play with the assumptions your self. =) Finally, I called my old buddy to ask him, and I think I got your most definitive answer. He told me that he uses this very story all the time with a variety of pests. His comment was that he needs to sell the whole rodent protection plan and not just get paid to lay a trap. So, he tells people there are more than the one they saw. Now, here?s the clever part, that I hadn?t thought about. He said that with large pests, like rodents and snakes, he actually quotes them an exact number ratio for two reasons. One, it makes him look like he is really knowledgeable, and therefore people will always call him back. And two, he can?t ever be wrong or run out of work. If he says there are seven and they eventually trap seven, then he looks like a genius, but, here?s the real genius.... If they catch less than seven, they will fixate on bringing him back and paying more to flush ?the rest? of them out, and if they trap more than seven, same thing? They will fixate until they get the rest of them. No matter what happens, the customer will always need him and want him. According to him, there are no mice or rats that group in specific numbers, but he uses a variation of that line all the time for a variety of different kinds of pests to up-sell work. Well, there it is? Humans 7, Rats 0? =) -Rob |
Subject:
Re: Seven Rats
From: scissorhand-ga on 11 Nov 2005 01:53 PST |
Seven having a magical air to it, puts the exterminator in a position to be a magician, and someone you need, to magically fix your problem. Traps work well and cost a buck |
Subject:
Re: Seven Rats
From: porkribs-ga on 11 Nov 2005 09:09 PST |
Love your writeup, tigger! Thank you. |
Subject:
Re: Seven Rats
From: quantumdot-ga on 17 Nov 2005 09:24 PST |
I'm fairly certain that some crows group in sevens. I'm sure there is leeway involved too, esp. for a starting colony, or what have you. |
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