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Q: New Oil Discovery Rate 1960-present data ( No Answer,   1 Comment )
Question  
Subject: New Oil Discovery Rate 1960-present data
Category: Business and Money > Economics
Asked by: tonesporter04-ga
List Price: $40.00
Posted: 16 Nov 2005 15:17 PST
Expires: 16 Dec 2005 15:17 PST
Question ID: 593960
I need to confirm some data that I received from a source that is not
entirely reliable.  It involves the rate of new oil discovery since the
1960s.  The data I have show that oil discoveries peaked at an average
42 billion bbls/yr from 1960-1965, then falling to about 6-7 from
1995-2000.  I've looked at BP and Oil and Gas Journal, EIA, DOE, all
the major energy sources, and can't find any sort of raw data for
this, but I know it must exist.  Can anyone help out?
Answer  
There is no answer at this time.

Comments  
Subject: Re: New Oil Discovery Rate 1960-present data
From: standardoil-ga on 16 Nov 2005 23:22 PST
 
Not sure what you consider a reliable source, but the numbers you
mention match Pete Stark's numbers from IHS Energy.  IHS Energy is a
leading consultancy in oil & gas and along with WoodMac have the best
publicly available world wide datasets on oil and gas fields,
discoveries, and production.  Major oil companies and investment banks
use IHS (as do some of the peak oil crowd like Laherre).

The link below is a pdf presentation covering oil discovery rate.  
http://www.ihsenergy.com/news/presentations/aapg_2004/stark_pres.pdf

Page 5 is for liquids (oil and condensate) and shows discoveries
falling from 48 BB/yr in 1965 to 15 BB/yr in 2001 (comparable to your
numbers).

Page 4 shows discovery by half decade (so divide by 5 for annual) over
a much longer period of time but FOR OIL EQUIVALENT BARRELS (i.e., oil
+ natural gas) so not quite apples-to-apples

Editorial comment - Although discovery from exploration is falling,
the world's reserves are growing (see BP Statistical Review of World
Energy for example).  The reason is reserve growth from technology and
field extensions in existing fields.  The age of 'wildcatters'
exploration is dwindling, but not the age of oil development and
production.


(Access to the raw data is available from IHS but we are talking tens
of thousands and thousands of dollars.)

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