Google Answers Logo
View Question
 
Q: Information about railways ( Answered 5 out of 5 stars,   1 Comment )
Question  
Subject: Information about railways
Category: Miscellaneous
Asked by: gfkostas-ga
List Price: $20.00
Posted: 20 Nov 2005 10:58 PST
Expires: 20 Dec 2005 10:58 PST
Question ID: 595477
Could you find information that dig into or with other words examining
Germanys and France high-speed rail's likely future economic
viability.Thanks

Request for Question Clarification by hedgie-ga on 20 Nov 2005 11:20 PST
Interesting question.

Current EU Market
?1.5 billion, of which the SNCF accounts for two-thirds.
namely:
2 500 km of dedicated lines, in France (1 147km), Germany (510 km),
Spain (377), Italy (259), and Belgium (74). (Figures for 2000)
in several European countries with plans to extend network to new EU members..
http://europa.eu.int/comm/research/news-centre/en/tra/02-07-tra01a.html
Are you interested only about those two EU countries or all EU or
http://www.rtri.or.jp/rd/maglev/html/english/maglev_frame_E.html
 all countries?

What time horizont?

Economics depends heavily on fuel cost. Would it be sufficient to compare
capital investments plus fuel costs or should assumptions be made
about 'peak oil' curves?

Clarification of Question by gfkostas-ga on 20 Nov 2005 13:40 PST
My question involves issues related to
economic viability in terms of:

-Expansion of network (that involves infrastructure)
and who is going to pay for it (Government-Public
funding or private funding)?
-Economic comparison between TGV (SNCF) and ICE(DB) as
the ownership structure of these two companies is
different.
-Cost for maintaining and improving the existing
network.
-Competition of high speed rail(TGV, ICE) and low cost
carriers(budget airlines).
-How technology is used as an economic factor(i.e. new
high speed rail more cost efficient)?
-Is it worth to invest on high speed rail projects? 
-Evaluation of the EU policy on high speed rail
-Time horizon: The next 10-15 years (2005-2020)
 
 *The information should be focused on France (TGV)
and Germany (ICE) but if you can/want to add a general approach for the rest
of the European countries would be welcome.
Answer  
Subject: Re: Information about railways
Answered By: hedgie-ga on 20 Nov 2005 21:04 PST
Rated:5 out of 5 stars
 
HSR  ( High speed rail) in Europe  (France and Germany) and in the  world



Definitions and overview
==========
High speed rail (=HSR) is considered to be steel-wheel-on-rail
operation in excess of 125 mph1.
 At present, HSR only exists in Europe and Japan....

Very High Speed Rail trainsets, operating in speeds of excess of 200 mph,
 are currently being planned for selected routes on France's TGV
system. The current speed record is 320mph.

http://lomaprieta.sierraclub.org/HighSpeedRail.html

Acronyms:

HGTS High Speed Ground Transportation (US term) - mostly studies 
http://www.fra.dot.gov/us/content/515
http://www.surveycafe.com/surveycafe/trains.htm

TGV  The TGV (Train Grande Vitesse) started in 1981 with the Paris -
Lyon line  (french term)
 http://www.tgv.com/EN/
http://www.beyond.fr/travel/railtgv.html
http://www.railway-technology.com/projects/frenchtgv/

RFF SNFC
French Rail Network (RFF), the French rail infrastructure authority,
expects to stabilise its debt next year.
http://www.railjournal.com/2000-06/rff.html

http://www.trainweb.org/tgvpages/tgvindex.html
ICE  INTERCITY EXPRESS  (german term)
http://www.germanfortravellers.com/kultur/icetrain.html
http://www.bahn.de/p/view/international/englisch/trains/trains_ice.shtml
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/InterCityExpress

Cost  - return on investment
=====

High-speed lines are expensive, thus usually state-built, and often
with cost overruns. But unforeseen technical problems rank only as
third among the causes. The first is delays (with organisatoral or
financial causes;

However, high-speed lines are a long-term investment - and on the
longer term usually profitable. For example, the first Spanish line,
opened in 1992 from Madrid to the then World Fair city Sevilla, was at
first deficitary (after substracting interests), and considered a
silly prestige project. But it turned profitable in five years, and
profits made up for initial losses in another five.

http://www.eurotrib.com/?op=displaystory;sid=2005/11/13/131939/75


Estimate  of mainteance cost (CA study)
The highway, rail  and air cost models are developed
http://www.ce.umn.edu/~levinson/Projects/HSR/HSR.html


 Is Investment in High Speed Rail Socially Profitable?
 HSR investment is highly dependent on the volume of ...
?Unlike the French case, the AVE cannot provide through service because it ...
www.eco.uc3m.es/temp/gderus.pdf



 Environmental impact - use of resources
===================
High Speed Rail's positive impact on the environment is also not to be
minimized. For example, the first two new HSR lines in Germany
required 3.2 hectare/km, compared to 9.3 hectare/km for German
motorways.

Energy consumption per passenger-km is three-and-a-half times less
than for a private car and five times less than for air.16 According
to the Italian High speed lines official web site, "emissions of
carbon dioxide, the main cause of the greenhouse effect, are 7.5 times
lower than those of an aeroplane and 4.5 times lower than those of a
car."17
only 2% from rail.


Air/HSR cost crossover
California has the busiest air traffic corridor in the nation and
perhaps the world19. A high-speed train would be able to journey from
San Francisco to Los Angeles within 2.5 hours, and to San Diego within
3.5 hours. These times are within the travel times that Europeans have
found economic for high-speed rail.
http://lomaprieta.sierraclub.org/HighSpeedRail.html


Trenitalia has launched TrenOK, a low-cost train service, to compete
with low-cost airlines.
http://www.railjournal.com/altfeature1.shtml

TGV   france
=============

supply and demand : future traffic estimates based on gravity model)
Development and Economic Evaluation of High Speed in France
(T.Suga). Net contribution of TGV. 38.7%. Operating cost ...
http://www.jrtr.net/jrtr03/pdf/f26_ard.pdf

finnancing: What will be the effect of present or future changes,
A primary factor influencing the next Master Plan lies in European
Directive 91/440/EEC
http://www.jrtr.net/jrtr11/f24_qui.html

The German ICE operated today by Deutsche Bahn AG (DB AG)
=============
.... ICE 3 services have been operating between Frankfurt (Main) and
Cologne every 2 hours since 4 November 2000 with alternate
intermediate stops at Limburg, Montabaur, and Siegburg; every train
stops at Frankfurt Airport and service frequencies were increased to
1-hour intervals on 15 September 2002. Six new ICE lines are now
running on this new infrastructure...
http://www.jrtr.net/jrtr40/f36_kla.html


Japan Railway & Transport Review No. 40 (pp.36?45)
http://www.jrtr.net/jrtr40/f36_kla.html

 Comparisons
=============


A decade of change in the European Rail market;
investments in infrastructure and tilting trains 

http://transportation.northwestern.edu/
sources/RAIL04_IDEI/detiliere.pdf - Supplemental Result

High-speed rail: international comparisons
http://www.cfit.gov.uk/research/hsr/index.htm


Council Directive 91/440/EEC of 29 July 1991 on the development of the
Community's railways
Official Journal L 237, 24.08.1991, pages 25-28 Only the text
published in the OJ is authenticeferences:
The aim of this Directive is to facilitate the adoption of the
Community railways to the needs of the single market and to increase
their efficiency;
http://europa.eu.int/comm/competition/state_aid/legislation/91l237_en.html

UNECE directives
http://www.unece.org/trans/main/ter/tereu.html


  APPRAISAL AND HIGH SPEED RAIL IN THE CASE STUDY COUNTRIES 
... Spain, Germany and France. ? Economic cost/benefit
www.cfit.gov.uk/research/hsr/pdf/chapter2.pdf

Vision: Train travel at 950km per hour - Berlin to Budapest (popular article)
http://www.expatica.com/source/site_article.asp?subchannel_id=56&story_id=586&name=Train+travel+at+950km+per+hour+


Capital spending on transport in US Germany France ..
Train. Plane. High-Speed Rail Receives Above 50% Mode Share ...
http://www.southeastalliance.com/files/businesscase2-28-03.pdf

world - overview - technology
===============
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_speed_rail
http://www.answers.com/topic/high-speed-rail
Commercial feasibility study (CFS) for US
http://www.fra.dot.gov/us/content/515

 mThis commercial feasibility study (CFS)aglev
 Application of the maglev technology depends on breakthroughs in HTS
(High Temperature Superconductors)
Maglev trains tend be very expensive both to build and operate with
build costs running to triple the levels of normal high-speed trains.
The Shanghai maglev cost US$1.2B to build which means that at 20,000
passengers a day at US$6 per passenger it will take around 30 years to
pay off just the capital costs, not accounting for track maintenance,
salaries and electricity. The proposed Chuo Shinkansen line will cost
up to US$82.5B to build, a staggering figure.

Nevertheless, the cost of building a Transrapid track is claimed to be
comparable to a wheel-on-rail high-speed train, in a flat terrain,
becoming more and more comparatively cheaper as the terrain gets more
complicated.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetic_levitation_train

maglev in Germany
A special management company for Germany?s last maglev project in
Bavaria has been founded, see www.bmg-bayern.de.
 Now Transrapid is to be going to get a symbol of old German virtues:
high performance and precision.
http://www.magnetbahn-bayern.de/ENGLISH/english.html

BIBLIOGRAPHY
============
 Traffic and profitability of HSR (western Europe) 
Available for 100 Euro from
http://www.uic.asso.fr/etf/publication/publication-recherche.php

Interoperability of the trans-European high-speed rail system -
Directive 96/48/EC - Harmonised standards
		An updated consolidated list of harmonised standards in the
framework of the Directive on the interoperability of the
trans-European high-speed rail system was published in the Official
Journal of the European Union on 2005-09-24.
 The document can be downloaded from:
http://europa.eu.int/eur-lex/lex/LexUriServ/site/en/oj/2005/c_236/c_23620050924en00030006.pdf


book
In his single, well-organized volume, Europe's High Speed Trains: A
study in Geo-Economics,
 Mitchell Strohl masterfully presents the stories of today's leaders
in high-speed rail technology
http://www.greenwood.com/catalog/C4252.aspx

PDF reports (France etc)
Economic impacts of high speed trains
http://ideas.repec.org/p/dgr/vuarem/2001-20.html


 European Regional Science Association reports
High-speed railway developments
Accessibility is a major factor that determines the effects of
transport infrastructure developments
http://ideas.repec.org/p/wiw/wiwrsa/ersa03p61.html

conference
Workshop One ? Financing Heavy Rail Enhancements hosted by PricewaterhouseCoopers
http://www.rail-world.com/2006/eurorail/

Journal
http://www.railjournal.com/


Opinions and alternative futures (US  :-)
==========================================

against  public funding of HSR
Amtrak has no friends in the White House. President George W. Bush's
proposed budget for the current fiscal year wanted to eliminate all
subsidies for Amtrak. But U.S. Sens. Frank Lautenberg, DN.J., and
Trent Lott, R-Miss., put forth a bipartisan proposal to include Amtrak
passenger-rail service.
http://www.floridabullettrain.com/



for public funding of HSR
Worst of all is the administration?s severe under-funding of Amtrak. 
Passenger train service has been an adornment of our culture for 150
years.  Today it is in shambles, neglected by the administration, the
Congress, and the people.  The lack of a coordinated strategy has
produced a situation in which the tracks on which the trains run are
privately owned, while the rolling stock, the locomotives and railroad
cars, are publicly owned...
http://www.1stuu.org/Sermons/The%20State%20of%20the%20Nation.htm



lesson of history?
Getting back to economics and transport, if you go back to Adam Smith,
you will find that he accepts that roads (and hence transport
infrastructure) are a legitimate responsibility of government. As for
the issue of susbidy, it has been shown time and time again that
unprofiitable does not mean uneconomic as non users benefit from rail
services. Then of course there;s also the issue of climate change
which even President Bush is finallly waking up to.
http://www.trains.com/community/forum/topic.asp?page=3&TOPIC_ID=49171

It is a big and complex topic. I hope I have provided some basic leads and data.

Hedgie
gfkostas-ga rated this answer:5 out of 5 stars
Excellent researcher.Thanks

Comments  
Subject: Re: Information about railways
From: myoarin-ga on 21 Nov 2005 17:27 PST
 
Great job, Hedgie!  And I liked your thoughtful inclusion Adam Smith.
Myoarin

Important Disclaimer: Answers and comments provided on Google Answers are general information, and are not intended to substitute for informed professional medical, psychiatric, psychological, tax, legal, investment, accounting, or other professional advice. Google does not endorse, and expressly disclaims liability for any product, manufacturer, distributor, service or service provider mentioned or any opinion expressed in answers or comments. Please read carefully the Google Answers Terms of Service.

If you feel that you have found inappropriate content, please let us know by emailing us at answers-support@google.com with the question ID listed above. Thank you.
Search Google Answers for
Google Answers  


Google Home - Answers FAQ - Terms of Service - Privacy Policy