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Q: Compounded interest rates for the past sixty years ( Answered 5 out of 5 stars,   2 Comments )
Question  
Subject: Compounded interest rates for the past sixty years
Category: Miscellaneous
Asked by: jillina-ga
List Price: $5.00
Posted: 01 Dec 2005 20:29 PST
Expires: 31 Dec 2005 20:29 PST
Question ID: 600374
If I had saved $400 a month in a commerical saving bank, at the the
prevaiing compounded interest rates, how much would I have accumulated
in 60 years. (1945 to 2005.)?
Answer  
Subject: Re: Compounded interest rates for the past sixty years
Answered By: hedgie-ga on 03 Dec 2005 21:19 PST
Rated:5 out of 5 stars
 
Jillina
           The hard part of this question is

What Was the Interest Rate Then?

as discussed at great length e.g. here
http://www.eh.net/hmit/interest_rate/intstudy.pdf

In less detail:

 "..U.S. per capita incomes (average incomes per person) are now
$40,000, triple their level 60 years ago...now.. the benefits from
defeating double-digit inflation are fading. Remember: in 1979,
inflation peaked at 13% in the U.S.; now it's 1% to 3%, depending on
the measure. The steep decline led to big drops in interest rates and
big increases in stock prices (as interest rates fell, money shifted
to stocks). Stocks are 12 times their 1982 level. Lower interest rates
and higher stock prices encouraged borrowing and spending. But these
are one-time stimulants. Mortgage rates in the U.S. can't again fall
from 15% (1982) to today's 5.7%..."

  During the inflation on seventies the value of money changed 
as shown nicely on the graph on the page 4 of this study:

http://www.stanford.edu/~mckinnon/ briefs/salvatoreJEPMKenen.pdf


 Nominal interest rate tends to be (roughly) a constant added to the
inflation   and that constant is (roughly) the 'real interst rate',
defined here:

http://www.treas.gov/offices/economic-policy/ long_term_rates_socialsecurity.pdf

which shows "historical interest rates and estimates derived from
Treasury inflation-.indexed securities. ... 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980.
1990. 2000 ..."


Anyway, judging from the price of your question, you do not really care about
such a detailed analysis, so: 

eyeballing chart 1 on page 4 of the above report we can choose nominal rate
to be 5% most of that time.

 We enter that into one of many calculatorson the web

SEARCH TERM:saving interest rate calculator

we pick this one

http://www.sorted.org.nz/calculators/regular-savings/page2.php

and get 
The calculations below are based on saving $400.00 per month at a real
rate of return of 5.00% per annum. These savings amounts are regularly
adjusted for inflation. There is an initial savings amount of $0.00.

 You will have saved $1,735,753.44 after 60 years.


	  	
Your savings	              $288,000.00	
Net real earnings on savings	$1,447,753.44	
Total in today's dollars	$1,735,753.44

Hedgie
jillina-ga rated this answer:5 out of 5 stars
I was very happy with the answer and links.  I realize this is not a
complicated question, but beyond my capabilities.  Unfortunately, I
have not save $400 a month for the past sixty years.  I've had to live
on my income.  For you who have answered this: start saving, investing
and watch that money grow.

Comments  
Subject: Re: Compounded interest rates for the past sixty years
From: myoarin-ga on 04 Dec 2005 10:09 PST
 
Jillina-ga,
You are absolutely right, it is the money one invests when one is
young that is going to make one self-sufficient later in life.
In relation to the calculation, it is worth reflecting on the actual
possibilitiy of someone in the 1940s being able to save $400 per
month.  These sites give the average salary in the decades of the 40s,
50s, 60s and 70s:
http://kclibrary.nhmccd.edu/decade40.html
http://kclibrary.nhmccd.edu/decade50.html
http://kclibrary.nhmccd.edu/decade60.html
http://kclibrary.nhmccd.edu/decade70.html

an increase from $ 1299 in the 40s to $7564 in the 70s.  Of course, a
lot of this had to do with changing occupations  - a decline in the
farm population, etc.  Interesting is that in the 40s and 60s 
(probably in the 50s, too) teachers earned above the average  - but
again, the occupational demographics played a strong role, no doubt.
Subject: Re: Compounded interest rates for the past sixty years
From: jillina-ga on 31 Dec 2005 13:39 PST
 
Yes, I realize that $400.00 a month would be almost impossible to save
in the forties and fifties.  I used that figure because I calculated
one could probably have saved $500 a month in the sixties, $600 in the
seventies and $700 in the eighties and $1,000 in the ninties and
2000's. I tried to use one set of figures to make it easier.  I didn't
factor in CD's, IRA's, mutual funds and all that other "stuff" because
I thought it would make my question far too complicated.  (Remember
it's a five dollar question.)  I do remember when certain funds were
paying ten percent interest.  I wasn't part of it, because we never
had enough to invest.  However, as I reflect back, had I handled the
finances, we probably would have. Least you think I'm living in
poverty, I'm not.  I'm handling my pension, social security and my
deceased husbnad's penison just fine. However, I am living on income,
not savings.  I started college at forty and went on to get my Masters
Degree.  That put me at 46 before I could start getting paid a decent
salary. At that time it was $8,000 a year.  When I retired, seventeen
years later,  I was making $46,000.  I had to retire earlier than I
wanted to to take care of my husband due to his failing health.   But
that's another story. My question is almost rehtorical.   I know
living a life full of regrets doesn't bring happiness. Therefore, I
don't dwell on the "What if's" and "If only's"  My original thought
and the ultimate bottom line, to which which you concur, is start
early, let the money accrue and than you won't be writing notes like
this.  You will also be at the least a  millionaire and maybe a mullt-
millionaire.
You are a gret reseacher, I appreciate your efforts and have looked up
the links.  Thanks, again.

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