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Subject:
Probability
Category: Science > Math Asked by: jeremyfreid-ga List Price: $2.00 |
Posted:
14 Dec 2005 06:36 PST
Expires: 13 Jan 2006 06:36 PST Question ID: 605694 |
pick card from a shuffled deck of cards until an ace appears. on average, how many cards are required to produce an ace? we need the theoretical value and the explanation please. |
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There is no answer at this time. |
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Subject:
Re: Probability
From: markvmd-ga on 14 Dec 2005 09:26 PST |
Are you reinserting the selected card and reshuffling each time or just removing cards until you get an ace? It makes a difference. |
Subject:
Re: Probability
From: mathisfun-ga on 14 Dec 2005 10:04 PST |
also, are you drawing from the top of the deck or from anywhere, I was working out from top of the deck which I think is more work then needed. |
Subject:
Re: Probability
From: jeremyfreid-ga on 14 Dec 2005 15:26 PST |
no reinsertion, just picking cards until i get an ace. i'm also drawing from the top of the deck. thank you |
Subject:
Re: Probability
From: etotheipi-ga on 14 Dec 2005 17:03 PST |
Calculate the following: (51 C 3)+2(50 C 3)+ 3(49 C 3)+ ...+49(3 C 3) ------------------------------------------- (52 C 4) The answer I got using Maple was 53/5. |
Subject:
Re: Probability
From: manuka-ga on 15 Dec 2005 17:20 PST |
Note that if it's a shuffled deck it doesn't matter where you're drawing from, as long as you're not reinserting. (But don't use this argument in poker games!) More explicitly, the probability of getting the first ace on the n'th try is (48/52)*(47/51)*(46/50)*...*((50-n)/(54-n))*(4/(53-n)) = 4 . 48! (52-n)! / [52! (49-n)!] = 4.(52-n).(51-n).(50-n) / (52.51.50.49) where n goes from 1 to 49. To get the expected number of cards to choose, we need to sum 4n.(52-n).(51-n).(50-n) / (52.51.50.49) for n from 1 to 49. You can derive a fifth-order polynomial for this: the sum of numerator of the above expression as n goes from 1 to k is k (k+1) (-4k^3 + 759k^2 -51249k + 1299994) / 5 (you can prove this by induction if you like). Evaluating this for k=49, or simply pasting cells into a spreadsheet and adding them up, will give you a numerator of 68872440; cancelling out common factors with the denominator leaves you with 53/5, as reported by etotheipi-ga. |
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