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Q: Probability ( No Answer,   5 Comments )
Question  
Subject: Probability
Category: Science > Math
Asked by: jeremyfreid-ga
List Price: $2.00
Posted: 14 Dec 2005 06:36 PST
Expires: 13 Jan 2006 06:36 PST
Question ID: 605694
pick card from a shuffled deck of cards until an ace appears.  on
average, how many cards are required to produce an ace?  we need the
theoretical value and the explanation please.
Answer  
There is no answer at this time.

Comments  
Subject: Re: Probability
From: markvmd-ga on 14 Dec 2005 09:26 PST
 
Are you reinserting the selected card and reshuffling each time or
just removing cards until you get an ace? It makes a difference.
Subject: Re: Probability
From: mathisfun-ga on 14 Dec 2005 10:04 PST
 
also, are you drawing from the top of the deck or from anywhere, I was
working out from top of the deck which I think is more work then
needed.
Subject: Re: Probability
From: jeremyfreid-ga on 14 Dec 2005 15:26 PST
 
no reinsertion, just picking cards until i get an ace.  i'm also
drawing from the top of the deck.  thank you
Subject: Re: Probability
From: etotheipi-ga on 14 Dec 2005 17:03 PST
 
Calculate the following:
(51 C 3)+2(50 C 3)+ 3(49 C 3)+ ...+49(3 C 3)
-------------------------------------------
                 (52 C 4)
The answer I got using Maple was 53/5.
Subject: Re: Probability
From: manuka-ga on 15 Dec 2005 17:20 PST
 
Note that if it's a shuffled deck it doesn't matter where you're
drawing from, as long as you're not reinserting. (But don't use this
argument in poker games!)

More explicitly, the probability of getting the first ace on the n'th try is
(48/52)*(47/51)*(46/50)*...*((50-n)/(54-n))*(4/(53-n))
= 4 . 48! (52-n)! / [52! (49-n)!]
= 4.(52-n).(51-n).(50-n) / (52.51.50.49)
where n goes from 1 to 49.

To get the expected number of cards to choose, we need to sum
4n.(52-n).(51-n).(50-n) / (52.51.50.49) for n from 1 to 49.
You can derive a fifth-order polynomial for this: the sum of numerator
of the above expression as n goes from 1 to k is
k (k+1) (-4k^3 + 759k^2 -51249k + 1299994) / 5
(you can prove this by induction if you like).
Evaluating this for k=49, or simply pasting cells into a spreadsheet
and adding them up, will give you a numerator of 68872440; cancelling
out common factors with the denominator leaves you with 53/5, as
reported by etotheipi-ga.

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