Hi calvarez,
Measuring lurkers to posters is not an easy task.
I found an article that agrees a 10:1 lurker:poster ratio is typical
(http://www.sfgate.com/~tex/innkeeping -- scroll down to Posting and
Lurking), but as you say, there isn't much data to back it up.
Looking towards the academic institutions, we start to find a few
theses (that's thesis, plural), that delve into the subject. Among
them is one from University of Guelph in Ontario, Canada by Robert
Blair Nonnecke (http://snowhite.cis.uoguelph.ca/~nonnecke/research/blairsthesis.pdf)
who researched this very topic (or very similar to it): _Lurking in
E-mail-Based Discussion Groups_. Page 72 of the PDF has some of his
results from a 3 month study of 147,000 messages in 109 discussion
lists. Among the results:
Average lurker:poster ratio: 55%
lurking ratio (LR) in health groups: 45%
LR in software groups: 82%
In addition, in the appendix of his thesis, are a couple conference
papers that he presented.
As you can see, Blair found that the LR is really closer to 1:1, not
the previously thought 10:1 (though he does reference a 90% value in
one of his conference papers)
I invite you to take a look at this thesis for some very in-depth data
and analysis of the lurker's mind.
Google search used to find information:
lurker to poster ratio online communities data
(adding data was key to this search)
Hope this helps answer your question
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