Hello, snowdroid-ga,
The personal robotics industry is fascinating and growing rapidly.
If you stop to consider how fast the industrial robot industry has
grown, the personal robotics industry is certainly going to take off
just as quickly.
Consider that in 2001, there were 750,000 industrial robots in use
throughout the world, with the breakdown as follows: 389,000 in Japan,
198,000 in the European Union, 90,000 in North America. 91,000 in
Germany, 39,000 in Italy, 21,000 in France and 12,000 in the United
Kingdom.
With the trend toward home automation, “it is estimated that 500,000
vacuum cleaner robots, and 24,000 robots performing other domestic
duties, will be in homes and offices worldwide by 2002.” In fact, “The
applications for advanced personal robotics are seemingly endless.
Robots could be programmed to receive and answer phone calls, take
dictation and convert speech to text, read email messages, secure
homes or offices, monitor computer networks, teach kids specific
topics, deliver medication in nursing homes and keep track of
warehouse inventories etc.” Read “Evolution Robotics Super Toys Last
All Summer Long,” by Ole Peter Galaasen. Plausible Futures Newsletter
(2/18/2002) at http://www.plausiblefutures.com/text/evolutionrobotics.htm
Personal robotics has entered the realm of surgery, entertainment,
security, personal task automation, and even pseudo-companionship in
the form of robotic pets. Says Toshi T. Doi, president of Sony's
Digital Creatures Laboratory, "The early decades of the [21st] century
will be the era of the robot…..We expect that the robot industry will
eventually grow larger than the PC industry." While Sony is big on
developing robots for personal entertainment, Honda hopes to “develop
autonomous humanoid robots that will be useful in society, able to
help people in daily life and take on dangerous work in places not fit
for human beings. "Honda hopes to create a partner for people, a new
kind of robot with a positive function in society," said Hiroyuki
Yoshino, president and chief executive officer of Honda Motor Co.
Ltd.” Read “Latest Robots Fill Helper, Entertainer Roles,” by Yoshiko
Hara. eeTimes (22/28/2000) at
http://www.eetimes.com/story/OEG20001122S0048
While there was a temporary slump in the personal robotics industry
in the 1980’s, the industry jump-started again in the early 90’s.
"From 1992-1997, North American robotics companies posted gains in new
orders of 131%. A total of 12,149 robots valued at over $1.1 billion
were ordered in 1997, a new record. Shipments also topped $1 billion
for the first time, making 1997 the industry's best year ever." Those
companies which had to cut back in the 80’s began to hire again.
"United States made it one of the world's hottest markets for
robotics, in stark contrast to the slowdown in robot use occurring in
Japan" (Vincent). In 1998 there was a slight slowdown of this
breakneck pace, but the industry was and is still going strong, and
will not be stopped. Robotics will increasingly begin to "invade"
every aspect of our lives.” Read “Uncovering Robotics,” by William
Cox. GoRobots.net (4/2000) at
http://www.gorobotics.net/uncovering2.shtml
The robotics industry is expected to continue growing rapidly in
four main areas: “space and sea exploration, medical advances, and
industrial and home automation.” Read “Robots in the Future,” by
William Cox. GoRobots.net (5/2000) at
http://www.gorobotics.net/uncovering3.shtml
“Predicting the future growth of the robotics industry can make one
look foolish -- just ask the prognosticators who were making forecasts
in the early 1980s. RIA’s study, "A Market Assessment of Current and
Expected Robotics Usage", provides ample evidence of why the industry
is well-positioned for growth.
Use of robots in the electronics industry should grow at an average
rate of 35% a year for the next several years. The key factors driving
this expected growth are mass customization of electronic goods,
specifically communications equipment; the miniaturization of
electronics goods and their internal components, particularly in PCB
assembly; and the re-standardization of the semiconductor industry,
which will completely retool itself over the next five years.
The food & beverage industry is in the midst of a capital equipment
spending boom in order to improve operating efficiencies. Robot
installations are expected to grow by 25-30% for the next few years
for tasks such as packaging, palletizing, and filling.
These industries are likely to represent the largest markets for the
next few years, but we also expect to see growth in the aerospace,
appliance, and non-manufacturing markets.
After a quarter-century of being actively involved in robotics, I’ve
concluded that the industry is here for the long-haul. New
applications will emerge as advancements are made in robots and
peripheral products. Non-manufacturing applications, particularly in
medicine, space and undersea, should become increasingly viable. Some
years will see double-digit growth, others will see declines, but the
long-term trend is up. The robotics industry, which survived the "boom
and bust" of the 1980s, prospered in the 1990s, will thrive in the
21st Century!” Read “The North American Robotics Industry: Leading the
Charge to a Productive 21st Century,” by Donald A. Vincent at
http://www.ncsu.edu/IEEE-RAS/RAS/RASnews/990907RIAWhitpapr.html
Though there are statistics for the growth of the robotic industry
in general, there are fewer statistics strictly for the personal
robotics market. However, here are some excerpts from an executive
summary of the 360 page survey, titled “World Robotics 2001,” produced
by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), which
has some market predictions for the personal robotic industry as well:
What are the forecasts for 2004(industrial robots)?
Some 975,000 worldwide, of which 447,000 in Japan, 306,000 in the
European Union and 116,000 in North America.
How large were the robot investments in 2000?
"2000 was a record year with almost 100,000 new robots being
installed worldwide, representing an increase of as much as 25% over
1999". "47,000 robots were installed in Japan while in the European
Union some new 30,000 units were added to the stock, compared with
13,000 units in North America".
Are we seeing any service robots in our homes?
“Lawn mowing robots are about to have their commercial
breakthrough while the market introduction of vacuum cleaning robots
has been delayed until 2002/2003.”
How are service robots for professional use doing?
“Medical robots, underwater robots, surveillance robots,
demolition robots and many other types of robots for carrying out a
multitude of services are doing very well. A stock of some 10,000
units was estimated at end 2000. In the period 2001-2004 another
30,000 units are projected to be added to the stock.”
“Of the total number of service robots for professional use
installed up to the end of 2000, underwater robots with their 3,000
units accounted for 29%. Thereafter followed demolition robots with
22% and medical robots with 15%. Laboratory robots had a share of 10%
while agriculture robots, mainly robot milking systems, made up 6%.
Cleaning robots made up another 4% while the aggregate "all other" had
a share of about 14%. As the unit values differ very significantly
between various application areas - from some hundreds of thousand of
dollars for underwater robots and medical robots to a few thousands of
dollars for laboratory robots or a few hundreds of dollars for
domestic or entertainment robots - market data, expressed in terms of
value in US dollars, might differ quite substantially from market data
expressed in number of units. Underwater robots account for over 60%
of the total estimated market value, this high share being a result of
their high unit value.”
“Turning to the projections for the period 2001-2004, the stock is
forecast to increase by some 30,000 units, the largest increase being
in small cleaning robots for professional use (see table 5 and figure
4). Other application areas with strong growth are medical robots with
almost 5,000 new robots being added, underwater robots (3,000),
surveillance and security robots (1,800), refuelling robots (1,100)
and robotic systems for milking (1,000). These figures should,
however, be seen rather as market potentials than actual sales
forecasts.”
“When vacuum cleaning robots are introduced on the market in the
first half of 2002, sales could, provided the price is right, take off
at such a rate that, by the year 2004, a couple of hundred thousand
units or more could have been sold. This forecast is, however, very
unsure.”
“Regarding lawn-mowing robots, a huge increase in sales (more than
ten times) is forecast for the period 2001-2004. The market is very
"promising" and these kinds of robots are rapidly gaining acceptance
from customers. A projection of 40,000 units might very well be far
too low. The market for entertainment robots is forecast at some
200,000 units, which also might be far too low.”
Please refer to the entire exerpt of the survey, as it contains
extensive information and several pertinent charts about the robotics
market. ***Table 5 is a must see as it contains forecasts for many
types of service robots through 2004. You may read the entire exerpt
and order the report, “World Robotics 2001 - Statistics, Market
Analysis, Forecasts, Case Studies and Profitability of Robot
Investment “ for US $120 at
http://www.unece.org/press/pr2001/01stat10e.htm
The future potential of robotic security planes, or drones, has
already been displayed in Afghanistan. “Larry Dickerson, senior
unmanned air vehicle analyst for Forecast International/DMS in
Newtown, Conn…. predicts the global market for military drones could
be worth "$7.5 billion over the next decade.” Read “Robot planes the
future of warfare, military officials say.” AP Online (2002) at
http://www.nandotimes.com/technology/story/463678p-3707877c.html (may
require password which is available for free)
Korea plans to invest heavily in the personal robotics market, with
hopes that the country will reap at least 10% of the market share. The
Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy (MOCIE) predicts the
domestic robot market, which includes robots for games and
entertainment, household-use robots for laundry and cleaning, and
educational robots and intelligent robots that act as friends, to
“develop to a 300 billion won market by 2005.” Korea hopes their share
of the personal robot market to be “over $2 billion by 2010.” Read
“Plans Unveiled to Develop 6 Core IT Technologies,” by Kim Sung-jin.
Korea Times (2001) at
http://www.hk.co.kr/kt_tech/200112/t2001120316575645110.htm
“The Japan Robot Association forecasts that the (consumer) robot
market could potentially reach 3 trillion-yen by the year 2010. Over
the next few years SANYO expects Robots to play an active role in
fields such as, healthcare, welfare, public services, and security.
While the demand for sheer volume of services in these fields increase
due to issues such as growth in elderly population, and reduction in
birth rate etc., mobile equipment such as robots, have started to
receive increased attention as a method of providing improved
services.” Read “Sanyo Announces Plans to Enter Robot Industry.” Sanyo
News Release (2002) at
http://www.sanyo.co.jp/koho/hypertext4-eng/0203news-e/0325-e.html
I hope the above references help you. Another option is to buy one of
many detailed, market research reports. One suggestion is “Mobile
Robotics: The Next Revolution,” by ActiveMedia Research. The cost is
$495 and the Table of Contents may be viewed at
http://www.activmediaresearch.com/mobile_robotics.html
Let me know if I can be of further help.
umiat-ga
Search on Google
personal robotics market
robot security forecasts
Search on Business.com
robot market global |
,
0 Comments
)