Diaztina--
It's an interesting series of questions, especially since each of the
three trends are related -- and the trends can accumulate interesting
surprises.
Management's job is to use capital, labor and materials in the best
way to further organizational goals. In a business, this may be to
maximize market share or profits. A non-profit or government
organization may have research or other goals.
Management will be faced with three ways in which to look at each
these three implications:
1. general issues for each of these three long-term changes in
computer hardware.
2. specific environmental or organization issues.
3. the RATE of change itself.
John Von Neumann, an early participant in the definition of computing,
said in a Fortune Magazine interview in 1955, "All experience shows
that even smaller technological changes than those now in the cards
profoundly transform political and social relationships. These
transformations are not 'a priori' predictable and most contemporary
'first guesses' are wrong."
The implication is that management needs an active, continual process
to evaluate the impact of changes in computer cost, size and
processing power.
REDUCTION IN HARDWARE COST
--------------------------
GENERAL: Annual reductions in computing cost are a long-standing
trend. They're related to trends in size and computing power because
of one of the fundamental aspects of the computer industry -- "Moore's
Law."
Gordon Moore, one of Intel's founders, published what became known as
"Moore's Law" in 1965. It predicts the doubling of transistor density
in ICs every two years -- creating exponential growth in computing
power for the foreseeable future:
http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/mooreslaw.htm
Issues for management include some of the following:
· tax issues. Economic obsolescence may not match long-established
depreciation schedules.
· strategic advantages. New services planned to take advantage of
lower-cost equipment may be possible.
· shifts in cost structures. Equipment and even employees may need be
re-deployed. For example, reductions in cost of electronic pre-press
equipment has changed the job of typesetters and eliminated
typesetting equipment using cast lead.
· policy changes. Some equipment may be so inexpensive that the
employee can provide it, removing the need to classify it as a
corporate asset. Inexpensive hardware proliferates in many places,
making security procedures more difficult to enforce.
SPECIFIC: Issues change from industry-to-industry; they also change
with time. Currently many businesses are now concerned with use of
wireless portable equipment -- how to use it, how information can be
secured, whether or not its use is cost-justified.
Successful organizations will establish ways of dealing with the
most-important issues. Roger Fournier in Information Week (Dec. 7,
1998) outlines 7 steps that an organization can take to stay on top of
these tactical issues:
http://www.informationweek.com/712/12iumgt.htm
RATE: Though Moore's law translates to an increase in processing
power of 40% per year, changes in cost aren't that smooth due to the
need for other enabling technologies. For managers, it's important to
recognize major shifts in costs and act on a timely basis. Will
wireless technologies enable new services at lower cost? Yes. In all
industries? Not in the next three years.
REDUCTION IN SIZE OF HARDWARE
-----------------------------
GENERAL: smaller equipment means less need for centralized computing
facilities; power consumption changes and is not all in a single
computing center; more distributed processing; more different types of
devices. Each of these brings up a range of issues, including:
· network communications between the distributed computers
· standards between equipment
· managing the inevitable changes in software architectures
· retraining employees using older technologies --- or finding
employees with skills in new technologies
· security issues of more widespread technology
SPECIFIC: any of the above issues can change a company's specific
reaction. While running a mainframe computer centralizes the power
consumption and heat generation, when personal computers are placed in
offices instead, lots of specific problems may emerge:
· a need for more air conditioning in the facility
· change in security procedures to keep confidential information safe
· more investment in support software or support staff
· training of employees on new technology available to them
RATE: is the change so fast that it's threatening aspects of the
current business model? Or can we recognize it as a long-term issue?
A standard tool in business is a SWOT
(strengths/weaknesses/opportunities/threats) analysis to see what's
changing in the competitive landscape.
INCREASE IN COMPUTING POWER
---------------------------
GENERAL: increases in computing power have changed cost structures of
old ways of doing business; enabled new business development; and
spawned new industries. It's a process that continues today and is
very visible on the Internet.
SPECIFIC: Using the Internet as an example, certain businesses like
Google weren't even possible until an enabling technology (http) and a
critical mass of Internet web pages became available. Often it's a
specific technology built on available computer power that makes a
dramatic change, such as the change in engineering designs with the
advent of Autocad or the emergence of video games onto PCs that are
finally fast enough to provide good simulations.
RATE: the rate of change may be slow enough that an organization need
not respond for years. Or it may be so fast that the cost of managing
change must be considered. It's currently a popular management
discussion, often leading to companies deciding that IT management
isn't a core competency and that the best solutions are to outsource
computer services.
Compass Management recognizes that managing change in computing
equipment is a widespread problem and outlines strategies for
considering outsourcing in a white paper "Change is Good" (undated):
http://www.compassamerica.com/white_papers/Change-is-Good.pdf
You'll find lots of information available on specific problems that
organizations face with new technology. Here's an interesting Dept.
of Energy outline for its IT programs "Energy Research Technology
Guidelines" (undated) gives its staff a range of considerations, from
interoperability to fit with the department's business goals:
http://www.er.doe.gov/production/er-60/siptgdln.htm
Google search strategy:
computing + change + management + hardware
Best regards,
Omnivorous-GA |
