Hi cth,
Ok, I’ve done a lengthy search of online resources and have come up
with a good set of articles that apply to the use of fuzzy logic in
project management. As you likely already know, fuzzy logic is applied
whenever there are unknowns that have to be applied to a forecast. In
project management of course there are always unknowns. Fuzzy logic
can be used to predict: financial outcomes, risk, software development
metrics, production processes, sales performance, and even human
behaviour.
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BASIC INFO
===========================
WEBOPEDIA – FUZZY LOGIC
http://webopedia.internet.com/TERM/f/fuzzy_logic.html
WEBOPEDIA – EXPERT SYSTEMS
http://webopedia.internet.com/TERM/E/expert_system.html
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CASE STUDIES /PAPERS
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Fuzzy logic for software metric models throughout the development
life-cycle
A. Gray and S. MacDonell
“One problem faced by managers who are using project management models
is the elicitation of numerical inputs. Obtaining these with any
degree of confidence early in a project is not always feasible.
Related to this difficulty is the risk of precisely specified outputs
from models leading to over commitment. …. the use of fuzzy logic for
project management however should not be the same throughout the
development life cycle.”
Abstract and downloadable zipped pdf article
http://divcom.otago.ac.nz/infosci/Publctns/complete/dp1999-abstracts.htm#dp9920
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FULSOME: Fuzzy logic for software metric practitioners and researchers
S. MacDonell, A. Gray and J. Calvert
“There has been increasing interest in recent times for using fuzzy
logic techniques to represent software metric models, especially those
predicting development effort..”
Abstract and downloadable zipped pdf file
http://divcom.otago.ac.nz/infosci/Publctns/complete/dp1999-abstracts.htm#dp9913
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Gray, A. and MacDonell, S., Applications of Fuzzy Logic to Software
Metric Models for Development Effort Estimation, Proceedings of the
1997 Annual Meeting of the North American Fuzzy Information Processing
Society - NAFIPS, Syracuse NY, USA, IEEE, 394-399.
“Software metrics are measurements of the software development process
and product that can be used as variables (both dependent and
independent) in models for project management.”
CITESEER – CACHED ARTICLES
http://citeseer.nj.nec.com/cache/papers/cs/1270/http:zSzzSzdivcom.otago.ac.nz:800zSzCOMzSzINFOSCIzSzSMRLzSzpubzSzpaperszSzgray97a.pdf/applications-of-fuzzy-logic.pdf
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Alternatives to Regression Models for Estimating Software Projects
Stephen G. MacDonell and Andrew R. Gray
“The use of `standard' regression analysis to derive predictive
equations for software development has recently been complemented by
increasing numbers of analyses using less common methods, such as
neural networks, fuzzy logic models, and regression trees. This paper
considers the implications of using these methods and provides some
recommendations as to when they may be appropriate.”
http://citeseer.nj.nec.com/cache/papers/cs/1271/http:zSzzSzdivcom.otago.ac.nz:800zSzCOMzSzINFOSCIzSzSMRLzSzpubzSzpaperszSzmacd96b.pdf/alternatives-to-regression-models.pdf
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Kumar, S., Krishna, B. A., Satsangi, P.J., "Fuzzy Systems and Neural
Networks in Software Engineering Project Management," Journal of
Applied Intelligence, 4, 1994, Pp. 31 - 52.
*can’t find online, but maybe you have university library nearby?
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Project management of the implementation of a fuzzy logic solution
Fuzzy Application Library/Business and Finance Applications/Mortgage
Applicants
http://www.fuzzytech.com/e/e_ft4bf2.html
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Fuzzy Set Theory Applications in Production Management Research
“Over the years there have been successful applications and
implementations of fuzzy set theory in production management. Fuzzy
set theory is being recognized as an important problem modeling and
solution technique. A summary of the findings of fuzzy set theory in
production management research may benefit researchers in the
production management field.”
http://www.acsu.buffalo.edu/~nagi/pubs/fuzzy.pdf
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Factors Affecting Cost and Duration of Construction Projects –
EPSRC Research Report - Phase (1)
Mr. T. M. S. Elhag & Dr. A. H. Boussabaine
“This report presented the aim and objectives behind this study, which
would be crowned by the development of a neuro-fuzzy system for
predicting cost and duration of construction projects.”
http://www.liv.ac.uk/~halim/pages/factors.doc
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Toolkit for Enabling Analysis and Modeling of Adaptive Workflow
(TEAMWORK)
“Knowledge relevant to the application of qualitative mechanisms
includes rules (of the traditional "if then else" variety) and fuzzy
rules: rules that use fuzzy membership functions to model the
associations between the rule antecedent and consequent(s). Fuzzy
rules based on the art and science of fuzzy logic. The qualitative
reasoning process involves "firing" of rules to make inferences, and /
or propagation of constraints to predict the impact of potential
changes to the process.”
“TEAMWORK supports the following life cycle development distributed
project management activities: i) defining the project objectives and
metrics, ii) designing the development process, iii) analyzing the
alternative processes, iv) enacting the development process (i.e.,
providing automated support for process execution), v) monitoring the
process execution, vi) synthesizing key process execution performance
statuses at multiple levels of abstraction from execution status data,
and vii) facilitating rapid redesign of the process based on
deviations detected from process execution status data analysis.”
MIT - Toolkit for Enabling Analysis and Modeling of Adaptive Workflow
(TEAMWORK)
http://ccs.mit.edu/klein/cscw98/paper36/
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BOOKS
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FUZZY LOGIC FOR BUSINESS, FINANCE, AND MANAGEMENT
by George Bojadziev (Simon Fraser University) & Maria Bojadziev
(British Columbia Institute of Technology) with a Foreword by Lotfi A
Zadeh
“Traditional modeling techniques do not capture the nature of complex
systems especially when humans are involved. Fuzzy logic provides
effective tools for dealing with such systems. Emphasis is on
applications presented in case studies including Time Forecasting for
Project Management….”
http://www.wspc.com/books/compsci/3312.html
Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects, Second Edition
by John Schuyler, June, 2001
Project Management Institute, Upper Darby, PA
259 pages, paperback, ISBN 1-880410-28-1
List price US$34.95
Ch. 17 - Expert Systems in Project Management: smart computers;
knowledge systems; representing knowledge; neural networks; fuzzy
logic.
http://maxvalue.com/rdap.htm
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DISCUSSIONS
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Two new fuzzy logic and computational intelligence mailing lists
University of Otago, New Zealand
“We have recently created two mailing lists for discussing fuzzy logic
techniques applied to project management and computational
intelligence techniques applied to software engineering. The former
is for discussing the use of fuzzy logic techniques applied to project
management. This includes planning, monitoring, controlling, and
analysis activities. The list was created mainly for software
development project management, but other forms of project management
may also be of interest to subscribers, along with generic issues in
management.”
http://www.mlnet.org/resources/links/mailing-lists/fuzzy-and-coil-list.html
The articles cited above should provide you with a good base of
information. For further information I would recommend reading (or at
least perusing) the two books I mentioned and contacting the
University of Otago mailing list. I’m sure people there would be happy
to share some case studies with you.
Thanks for your question. If anything I’ve said isn’t clear, please
feel free to ask for a clarification.
-K~
Search terms:
“fuzzy logic" “project management" "case study"
“fuzzy logic" “project management" "white paper"
“fuzzy logic" “project management" "report"
"fuzzy logic" “financial forecast" "case study"
"fuzzy logic" "expert systems" "project management" |
Clarification of Answer by
knowledge_seeker-ga
on
08 Oct 2002 09:35 PDT
Hi again cth –
Ok..here a few more articles that are more in line with what you are
asking for.
I noticed that the book I referred you to above: FUZZY LOGIC FOR
BUSINESS, FINANCE, AND MANAGEMENT, seems to be one of the leading
references cited in many of the articles I looked at. I would highly
recommend taking a look at it if you haven’t already.
Also note my search terms at the bottom. I combined the terms “fuzzy
logic” or “fuzzy” with the different aspects of project management to
which fuzzy systems or fuzzy logic would apply. Use combinations of
these terms to find further information. Use Google’s advanced search
and limit your searches to FILE FORMAT: pdf and you will find more
pertinent papers and fewer product and company promotions.
://www.google.ca/advanced_search?hl=en
-------------------------------------------------
“Decisions in project management are often made using incomplete or
uncertain information, particularly those pertaining to risk
management. In such situations, project managers use their subjective
judgements to assess project risks likelihood and severity. The
parameters involved are described qualitatively in linguistic terms
using imprecise non-numeric quantification. The linguistic terms or
variables can be translated into mathematical measures using fuzzy
sets. The object-oriented problem solving strategies developed in this
research will incorporate approximate reasoning techniques based on
fuzzy sets theory. The intention is to demonstrate the potential of
fuzzy set theory in highly subjective decision making processes within
construction management systems.” [p.2]
“The risk analysis class allows interdependencies between risks to be
represented, qualitative assessments of risks likelihood and impact to
be made, fuzzy computations of risk magnitude and prioritisation, and
the selection of appropriate risk actions from the risk action
catalogue.” [p. 8]
TOWARDS OBJECT MODELS FOR INTEGRATED INTELLIGENT
PROJECT MANAGEMENT
http://itc.fgg.uni-lj.si/bled96/papers/tah.pdf
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“This report demonstrates the first phase of this study concerning the
attributes of the neuro-fuzzy system. A questionnaire survey is
commissioned to identify and evaluate cost and time influencing
factors. Statistical analyses are undertaken for ranking and selection
of the model variables.”
Factors Affecting Cost and Duration of Construction Projects-EPSRC
Research Report Phase (1) - Mr. T. M. S. Elhag & Dr. A. H. Boussabaine
School of Architecture & Building Engineering; The University of
Liverpool
://www.google.ca/search?q=cache:9avhVyeLhwUC:www.liv.ac.uk/~halim/pages/factors.doc+%22fuzzy+logic%22+%22time+forecasting%22&hl=en&ie=UTF-8
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“This paper presents a discussion on the application of fuzzy logic to
critical path analysis (CPA). CPA is a popular project management tool
used within industry and commerce for planning and controlling capital
expenditure projects.”
The Application of Fuzzy Logic to Critical Path Analysis
http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/guy_jenner/article5.htm
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“ … constraints like due dates, allowed sequences of jobs, and
processing times of operations are modeled by fuzzy sets. The fuzzy
sets enable a simple model for describing how constraints may be
relaxed.”
COOPERATING SCHEDULING SYSTEMS
COMMUNICATING THROUGH FUZZY SETS
http://www.dbai.tuwien.ac.at/proj/DejaVu/papers/coop94.pdf
=====================================================
ARTICLES AVAILABLE BY SUBSCRIPTION OR BY PURCHASE
=====================================================
Project Cost Control: A Fuzzy Logic Approach
Project Cost Control: A Fuzzy Logic Approach Khursheed Omer, Margaret
F. Shipley, Andre de Korvin --- U of Houston, 1 Main St., Houston, TX
77002 , USA
We utilize fuzzy probability methods to crash project activities on
the critical path. Belief in the need for particular resources is
assessed on a daily basis to ensure cost optimization and its
inclusion in the project budget prior to its initiation.
Project Cost Control: A Fuzzy Logic Approach
http://www.informs.org/Conf/NewOrleans95/TALKS/MA36.1.html
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Best of luck with your project –
-K~
Search terms
Fuzzy logic program management
"fuzzy logic" "critical path"
fuzzy logic “project forecast”
fuzzy logic “time forecast”
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