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Subject:
Influence of Interest Rates on Foreign Exchange
Category: Business and Money > Finance Asked by: javieruno-ga List Price: $7.50 |
Posted:
01 Mar 2006 18:25 PST
Expires: 31 Mar 2006 18:25 PST Question ID: 702702 |
The well known interest rate parity relationship from international finance is as follows: F = S * exp[(r-rf)T] where 'F' is the forward price in dollars of one unit of foreign currency, 'S' is the spot price in dollars of one unit of the foreign currency, 'r' is the domestic risk-free interest rate, 'rf' is the foreign risk-free interest rate, and 'T' is the time. According to this equation, if the foreign risk-free rate is higher than the domestic risk-free rate, the foreign currency weakens relative to the domestic currency. However, if the risk-free rate in the foreign country is higher than the domestic free rate, investments held in that country will earn a higher rate of return. Therefore, money and investments should tend to flow in the foreign country, driving up the value of the currency, rather than weakening it. Could someone make sense out of this paradox? |
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There is no answer at this time. |
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Subject:
Re: Influence of Interest Rates on Foreign Exchange
From: d_squared-ga on 02 Mar 2006 04:07 PST |
The paradox arises because the equation you specify is only part of the model, specifying a quasi-arbitrage relationship. There is an implicit assumption here that flows of investment between the two countries don't themselves effect the exchange rate (this is not as bizarre a model as one might think; there might be a central bank policy to this effect for example). When you add a money market equilibrium condition you have the guts of Dornbusch's "overshooting" model. The idea is that, because (in order to maintain interest parity), the currency of the country with the lower interest rate has to be expected to appreciate over the period T'-T. But as you correctly note, a higher interest rate would normally attract inflows of investment which would have the effect of moving the exchange rate in the opposite direction. This can only be made consistent if a fall in the domestic interest rate leads to an immediate step fall in the domestic currency, so that it has "room" to appreciate; this is the solution of a model with two equations, one of which is the one you set out above and the other of which is the money market equilibrium condition. There is a good explanation here: http://mahalanobis.twoday.net/stories/1418105/ |
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