Clarification of Answer by
bobbie7-ga
on
15 Mar 2006 09:28 PST
Dear Blucken,
Below you will find Propylene market information as per your request
in the clarification box.
The world polymer/chemical grade propylene market comprises about 56
million tons per year.
?The world propylene consumption is forecasted to increase by 4.8% per
year for the next few years compared to an ethylene growth rate at
4.3% per year.?
?60% of global propylene consumption is covered by polypropylene with
considerable future growth rates at 5-6% per year.?
(?)
Propylene is sourced from:
?Steam crackers presently supplying 67% which is expected to fall
below 60% in 2012,
?Refinery fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) showing a fraction of 30% and
increasing tendencies?
?This tightening in propylene supply will continue on a long-term
basis since steam crackers mainly meet ethylene demand and are not
suitable to satisfy increasing propylene demand.?
?Propylene demand growing faster than ethylene.?
Lurgi
http://www.lurgi.de/lurgi_headoffice_kopie/english/nbsp/menu/products/gas_to_petrochemicals_and_fuels/methanol_to_propylene/markets/index.html
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?Demand for propylene will grow at an estimated 5.3 percent annually
for the period 2001-2010, to 81 million by 2010. This increase will be
driven by the demand for derivatives, especially polypropylene, the
demand for which is growing at the rate of 7.3 percent for the same
time period.
Propylene demand is expected to grow faster than supply. Propylene
supply/demand conditions and pricing are strongly dependent on
refinery production and the supply/demand balance, operating rates and
feedstock slates in the ethylene industry. Globally, more than 25
percent of the new crackers currently planned for start up in the
2003-2006 timeframe are based on ethane, and therefore will produce
little propylene. Propylene is produced commercially on purpose by
dehydrogenation of propane, but this is an expensive route that
generally requires favorable feedstock pricing to be competitive. The
amount of propylene produced by propane dehydrogenation is small
compared to other sources.
Propylene demand will also be affected by new technology developments
in propylene derivatives, as well. Although polypropylene will remain
the principal propylene derivative and the driver of propylene demand,
the following derivative technology developments may also influence
propylene demand: potential for acrylonitrile production from propane;
the non-coproduct route to propylene oxide; catalytic distillation for
cumene/phenol production; the production and product characteristics
of non-phosgene based polycarbonate and the effect on its principal
raw material, bisphenol-A; and advances in oxo alcohol production
technology
Propylene?
Technology Developments in Proylene and Propylene Derivatives
01-DEC-03
http://nexant.ecnext.com/coms2/summary_0255-3223_ITM
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U.S.
?? propylene in short supply, but its price has more than doubled since December
2003, while demand has progressively increased, driven largely by the growing
demand for polypropylene.
(?)
The propylene supply tightened a lot faster over the last year than
industry leaders
expected, and propylene demand in 2005 is expected to grow faster than
supply. That?s leading to growing concerns about supplying enough propylene
to meet needs.?
(?)
?Some chemical plants are shutting down due to an inability to source
enough propylene to remain operational. In late December 2004, a
series of outages at Shell Chemical?s Deer Park complex added to the
U.S. propylene supply woes. Shell declared force majeure for propylene
and put its propylene customers on 85% sales allocation. Meanwhile,
higher propylene prices are the result of high feedstock ? oil and
natural gas ? prices. High energy prices also contribute to rising
freight costs. With no relief in sight for energy prices, industry
insiders expect further propylene price escalations during the second
quarter.?
U.S. Propylene Consumption by End Use
Polypropylene 39%
Acrylonitrile 14%
Propylene Oxide 11%
Cumene 10%
Oxo Alcohols 8%
Isopropanol 7%
Oligomers 5%
Misc. 3%
Acrylic Acid 3%
National Adhesives.: VOLUME 2, ISSUE 2 MAY 2005
http://www.nationalstarch.com/pdf/Raw_Materials_Facts_4_05.pdf
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"This is a high volume chemical with production exceeding 1 million
pounds annually in the U.S."
http://www.scorecard.org/chemical-profiles/summary.tcl?edf_substance_id=115-07-1
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Tight propylene market in Asia
Increasing ethane based ethylene from Middle East
Strong demand for polypropylene
Active companies
Lummus, Lurgi, UOP, Synopec, Stone & Webster, others
Predicting Chemical Profitability in the Chemical Industry
New Breakthrough Chemical Manufacturing Technologies
SRI Consulting
August 9, 2003
http://www.iupac.org/symposia/conferences/chemrawn/crXVI/crXVI-N24-Intille.pdf
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Korea
Propylene market has been also in serious lack of supply amounting to
8.0million m.t./year on the back of stronger demand for
PP(Polypropylene), AN(Acrylonitrile), and Oxo Alcohol, and supply for
Butadiene is expected to face significant shortage amounting to 1.6
million m.t./year in 2013.
Chemical Journal 2004/06/09
http://www.chemlocus.com/news/daily_read.htm?menu=D1&Sequence=6508&cpage=12&sub=
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Here?s a list of propylene producers in the U.S.with capacities (Year 2000)
http://72.14.203.104/search?q=cache:bo9P1uCXI3EJ:63.236.84.14/news/PROFILE000131.cfm+%22Propylene+market%22+billion+sales+&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=11
>Request for Answer Clarification by blucken-ga on 15 Mar 2006 07:48 PST
I know I didnt ask for market size, but if you could come up with it,
I can give a large tip - otherwise I can post a separate request
thanks>
Please don't give me a tip or post another question for me.
Hopefully my additional research on this question will make up for the
other two questions where you request a price reduction which as I
explained would not be possible.
I hope this helps.
Sincerely, Bobbie7
,
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