What would worlds Jewish population be assuming that the extermination
of Jews by Germans and Russians during World War 2 had not occured?

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Request for Question Clarification by pafalafa-ga on 14 Mar 2006 05:26 PST

The Holocaust took the lives of about 1/3 of the world's Jewish
population, reducing the numbers of Jews from about 17 million to 11
million.

Growth in the Jewish population since WWII has been quite slow. 
Currently, the world's Jewish population is about 13.3 million. 
Assume that this represents 2/3 of the numbers of Jews there would be
in the world had the Holocaust not occurred.

In that case, the Jewish population would have been 13.3 million /
.667 = 19.94 million.


Of course, this is just a guess, as there are many, many variables
that affect the size and scope of population change over time.

Is this the sort of 'guesstimate' you were looking for?


pafalafa-ga

Hello
 
According to different sources, there would have been between 26 and
40 million Jews if the Holocaust had not occurred.


From the New Internationalist Magazine, issue 372 published in October 2004: 
There would have been approximately 40 million Jews worldwide.

Excerpt:

?In 1939, just before World War Two, the global Jewish population was
approximately 16 million, of which some 11 million are estimated to
have lived in Europe.  After the War, the European Jewish population
was reduced to around 5 million.

If 6 million Jews hadn?t been killed in the Shoah, and assuming an
average population growth rate of 1.4% (the current world average),
then in 2004 there would have been approximately 40 million Jews
worldwide, or nearly 3 times the current population.?

New Internationalist:  October 2004
http://www.newint.org/issue372/facts.htm



26 to 32 million Jews

?If there had there been no Holocaust, there would now be 26 to 32
million Jews in the world today, instead of 13 million.?

Source:
?NEVER AGAIN: A HOLOCAUST MEMORIAL? is a one hour special that
includes Larry Josephson's recent exclusive interview with Elie
Wiesel, a Holocaust survivor and winner of the Nobel Peace Prize for
his work on behalf of humanity
http://www.prx.org/pieces/4300


Approximately 24 million (1998)

?Half a century ago, at the end of World War II, at the end of the
greatest calamity that our people sustained, we lost 6 million of our
members. We numbered 12 million. By the slowest rate of population
increase that we recognize in Western societies we should have been
now at least 24 million Jews.?

Jewish Federation General Assembly: 1998
Benjamin Netanyahu
http://www.netanyahu.org/jewfedgenas.html



"It is estimated that the 13 million Jews in the world today would
total from 32 to 36 million Jews if not for the Holocaust."
Hank Roth: Never again
http://pnews.org/PhpWiki/index.php/NeverAgain



?The Holocaust of the 1930s and and 40s transformed Jewish
demographics-if the Holocaust had not occurred there would now be
between 25 and 35 million Jews in the world, and far more of them
would live in Europe.?
http://www.visit-indya.com/religionsinindia.html



Search criteria:
"15..45 million Jews? Holocaust


I hope the information provided is helpful!

Best regards,
Bobbie7

There is a discrepancy in the above figures. The first of Bobbie7's
references estimates the growth in jewish population using an average
growth figure of 1.4% per annum, and states correctly that based on
the population of 16 million in 1939, and assuming no holocaust, the
population would have been around 40 million in 2004 - which is around
3 times the current population.

However, using the post-war (ie post-holocaust) jewish population
figure of 10 million, and applying the same growth rate of 1.4% pa,
one arrives at a figure of around 22 million in 2004, instead of the
current estimate of 11 to 13 million.

I think this discrepancy may be due to both the pre-war and current
estimates of the world jewish population being statistically
unreliable.

geof-ga,

The modern Jewish population is growing at a very slow
rate...considerably slower than the 1.4% growth rate for the human
population as a whole.  Probably from small family sizes and
interfaith marriages, though I haven't looked into the details.

The estimate I made above of 19.94 million takes into account the slow
growth rate of the Jewish people, and I think it is much more
realistic (if one can use that term in this bizarre context) than
estimates that use the overall growth rates for all people.


paf