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Q: Electric Car Forecasts ( Answered 3 out of 5 stars,   0 Comments )
Question  
Subject: Electric Car Forecasts
Category: Reference, Education and News > General Reference
Asked by: todd123-ga
List Price: $10.00
Posted: 04 Oct 2002 11:20 PDT
Expires: 03 Nov 2002 10:20 PST
Question ID: 72513
Why were/are all the forecasts for how many electric cars that will be
sold, so optimistic?  What was overlooked by the forecasters?
Answer  
Subject: Re: Electric Car Forecasts
Answered By: easterangel-ga on 04 Oct 2002 14:23 PDT
Rated:3 out of 5 stars
 
Hi! Thanks for the question.

I will provide you with direct quotations from the links that directly
answers your question, so as to save you time, but I highly recommend
that you read the articles in their complete form.

I think that the forecasts for electronic cars are quite optimistic at
this point since they have to iron out a number of issues so as to
make it of any use commercially. Please take note that although the
first three links have the same title "Electric Cars", they are three
different articles.

In this University of St. Thomas paper, the following factors are
mentioned on why electric cars will experience rough sailing in the
future.

“LIMITED RANGE: On a full battery, an EV can travel between 50–80
miles (roughly 2 hours).”

Speed: Gasoline powered vehicles has more power and pick-up speeds
that electric cars.

INSURANCE: Owners have difficulty looking for insurance since agents
are not knowledgeable enough about forecasting the insurance costs of
electric cars.

“SAFETY: EV’s conform to standards set by the National Highway traffic
Safety Administration, but they are also in the process of developing
specific standards for EV’s. These standards are being implemented to
address battery concerns and set the EV apart from gasoline safety
standards.”

“SHORT-TERM COSTS: The biggest disadvantage of an EV the short term
costs. They are more expensive than gasoline vehicles because the
benefits of the EV are factored into their price…. General Motors is
leasing it’s EV1 for $399/month and Honda is charging $455/month.”

“REFUELING: Currently, there is not enough infrastructure to support
the wide spread use of electric vehicles.” This I think is where we
will have great difficulty for electric cars since this is another
cost that business establishments will have to burden.  Waiting also
to recharge your car would take about 6 hours.

“Electric Cars”
http://komar.cs.stthomas.edu/qm425/00s/Mahlberg2.htm

Battery technology is one of the main culprits usually pointed to on
why electric cars may have difficulty taking off.

“The reason not many electric cars are on the road is because there
are many disadvantages. Such cars more expensive than their
conventional brethren, costing from $30,000 to $35,000. The range
limitations on these vehicles are also harsh: they can only go 79 to
90 miles on a charge. While there are many methods of charging,
including hook-ups for the home and on the road, the time factors
involved in recharging a drained inhibit the use of the car. At home,
3 hours, on average, are required to fully recharge the car. However,
such usage will increase a family's monthly electric bill by as much
as 55%. While on the road, the portable charger may take from 15 to 24
hours to recharge, restricting travel and increasing the time needed
to reach distant points. On a more positive note, lead-acid powered
cars have no emissions, reducing harmful pollutants greatly.”

”First, the batteries themselves are very heavy, weighing about 16 kg
each. Also, these batteries have a short lifetime, losing any
usefulness in a relatively brief time span. They are also quite toxic,
posing many difficulties when faced with storage and disposal. These
batteries are composed of equal (by mass) amounts of lead and sulfuric
acid. While the acid is contained within a fibrous shell, safe against
punctures, long term storage is still hazardous. The use of such toxic
materials in such an everyday item seems to encourage accidents,
especially considering the larger size as compared to a normal car
battery, as well as the need to replace them more frequently. In all,
lead-acid powered cars are unrealistic for anyone who must drive any
distance during their day, and certainly are useless for vacationing
purposes.”

“Electric Cars”
http://www.cem.msu.edu/~cem181h/projects/97/fuelsub/EVs.html 

“The main problem with using electric motors for motive power in
automobiles is the power source. In order to work they require an
electric current, and generating this can create difficulties. One
method is to simply carry all the energy you need, stored in the form
of a battery.”

“Traditionally, batteries are large and bulky, offering a poor range
between recharges, however recent developments have lead to great
advances in this field, just imagine how large mobile phone batteries
used to be. A battery, or chemical cell as they are properly, known
works through the chemical process known as ion displacement. This
involves one metal donating electrons to another, therefore changing
its chemical state. It is the electron transfer which is the current,
used to drive the motor. Modern materials for use in a cell include
lithium and silver, giving vehicles a speed of up to 60mph and an
endurance of up to three hours, more than adequate for city driving.
Battery ranges can be prolonged through the use of a technique known
as constructive breaking. This involves the driver taking his foot off
the accelerator in advance of having to stop. The computer then
switches the motors to work as dynamos (simply by operating them in
reverse) to charge up the batteries. This technique can also be
applied when driving down hill.”

“Electric Cars”
http://students.bath.ac.uk/en0sew/Electric%20Cars.html 

In my other answer about hydrogen power
(https://answers.google.com/answers/main?cmd=threadview&id=70951),
another difficulty that will be encountered by this type of vehicle is
the economic and political climate.

The cost of obtaining and maintaining an electric car is not yet
feasible at the moment.

“Its sticker price is about $20,000, or $2,000 more than its standard
counterpart. The hybrid car -- which boasts a low-emission engine that
actually turns off at every stop -- gets 50 miles per gallon.”

“’New technology has a cost to it, and the price of hybrids generally
can't be offset real quickly by the fuel savings because fuel is so
inexpensive in the United States,"’’ said Robert Bienenfeld, Honda
product manager.”

“In fact, gas prices in the United States are at their lowest levels
in 18 months, according to the most recent Lundberg survey.”

“Also, the Department of Energy says the electric vehicle industry
lacks support such as tax incentives and government mandates.”

“Electric Vehicles Not Taking Off”
http://www.techtv.com/news/culture/story/0,24195,3364990,00.html 

TechTv also hosted a discussion forum in their website about electric
cars which I think would be of great value to your research. One of
the ideas on the difficulty of electric cars aside from price is that
they are not being offered by dealers to the consumers.

TechTV Talback
http://www.techtv.com/tlkbck/comment/0,24009,3364990-552881,00.html?netsection_id=2100118

Another interesting viewpoint could be found in the middle of the next
article.

“An interesting sidebar details that using electric cars wouldn’t help
much -- not only did the cars perform poorly for the magazine’s test
drivers, but the article also concludes that ‘nearly all the carbon
dioxide emissions they’re responsible for [saving] would now be
produced by the power plants that generated their electricity.’”

“Environment Writer Reading Racks -- Consumer Reports”
http://www.nsc.org/ehc/ew/racks/consrepo.htm 

Surprisingly, gasoline could be an ally of the electric car.

“A government-industry team has demonstrated a gasoline-fueled system
that could form the heart of a clean, fuel-efficient electric car. The
system consists of a fuel processor that partially oxidizes gasoline
to create hydrogen gas, which is then sent to a fuel cell that
generates electric power. Members of the partnership include the
Department of Energy and Arthur D. Little of Cambridge, Mass.”

“Electric cars . . . fueled by gasoline?”
by S. Perkins
http://www.phschool.com/science/science_news/articles/electric_cars_gasoline.html

Search terms used: 
“Electric cars” issues difficulties 

I hope these links would help you in your research. Before rating this
answer, please ask for a clarification if you have a question or if
you would need further information.

Thanks for visiting us at Google Answers.

Regards,
Easterangel-ga

Request for Answer Clarification by todd123-ga on 04 Oct 2002 21:23 PDT
First of all, thank you for your help!
The problem with the answers you've offered is that the forecasters
must have known about all the technological hurdles.  I think the
anwer is more subtle than the fact that the cars had limited range and
had a short battery life.

Todd

Clarification of Answer by easterangel-ga on 04 Oct 2002 22:16 PDT
Hi and thanks very much for asking for a clarification. Before I make
an answer to your clarification, I would just like to point out some
elements in my answer. It is true that most of the articles are about
the technological aspects of the electric car issue. But seeing this
developing in my research, I made it a point to find other issues. The
ones in my answer specifically noted that the following elements could
also be an issue:

1. Insurance
2. Vehicle price and costly maintenance
3. The infrastructure to make certain spots available for recharging
the electric car.

Would an elaboration on the 3 issues mentioned above comprise as a
legitimate answer to your deeper query. I hope to hear from you before
I proceed since I would like to have more quality on focus in my
answer to your clarification.

Thank you and hope to hear from you soon so I could start.

Clarification of Answer by easterangel-ga on 04 Oct 2002 22:41 PDT
I am currently doing some exploratory research on the other issues in
case you confirm that this is the information you want. In answering
please just ask for another clarification so that we could be
notified. Thanks!

Request for Answer Clarification by todd123-ga on 06 Oct 2002 05:35 PDT
An elaboration would be great thank you.

Clarification of Answer by easterangel-ga on 06 Oct 2002 11:46 PDT
In order to make up somewhat for the very few issues I have posted, I
found an article which discusses other issues aside from batteries
(although they are still included, that maybe of interest to your
research.

1. Warranty and Maintenance
2. Resale Value
3. Resources
4. Personal fit

Plugging In: A Consumer Guide to Electric Cars

http://www.calstart.org/reference/papers/plugin.html 

In elaboration of the issues mentioned in my previous answer, I will
again quote certain articles so as to enrich the information.

Costs:

“With such enthusiastic consumer support, why are so few people buying
electric cars? One reason is car manufacturers appear to have adopted
a "go slow” approach to marketing their electric cars. While GM's EV1
assembly line in Lansing, Michigan is capable of turning out thousands
of its electric vehicle, Honda, the other company leasing EVs to
consumers, plans to only lease 300 of its roomy but boxy EV-Plus
electric cars over the next three years in the US. In fact, you cannot
buy an electric vehicle from any of the major manufacturers. Both GM
and Honda will only lease the car to a select number of customers who
meet a strict criteria. For example, potential EV1 lessees must live
within 50-75 miles of the dealership, have a combined income of
$125,000 year and own their home. The last requirement is necessary
since the owner will have to install a $2000 charging system, the
price of which is usually rolled into the 36 month lease.”

“Another drag on EV sales is the sticker price. If you could buy one
outright from a dealership, a commercially-built electric vehicle
would cost two to three times as much as its gasoline-powered
equivalent. The reason is car makers find themselves caught in the
classic "Catch-22"conundrum. For them to build affordable electric
cars and trucks, they have to build them in large numbers. But they
can't build them in large numbers unless there are customers willing
to buy or lease them, and so far, such a market hasn't yet
materialized. As a result, GM, Honda, Ford and Toyota are losing lots
of money with every car they lease. None of the companies are willing
to divulge the exact price of their cars. However, knowledgeable
industry experts estimate, for example, that Toyota's recently
introduced Prius is being sold for about half of the estimated
$35-40,000 it actually costs to build. Not surprisingly, sales in
Japan for the Corolla-sized hybrid-electric vehicle are brisk. Two
days after it officially went on sale December 10th, Toyota executives
reported they had over 3,000 orders in hand. Powered by a combination
of a small gasoline engine and advanced electric motor and batteries,
the car gets a remarkable 66 miles per gallon in city driving while
producing half the CO2 emissions of its gasoline-powered cousin.”

“A Ford engineer working on the Electric Ford Ranger project lamented
during a party at EVS 14 that they are going to have a tough time
selling their vehicle at its current sticker price of $33,000 when a
customer can, ‘go down to his local Ford dealer and buy the same truck
with a gasoline engine for one-third as much.’”

Another issue mentioned in this article that could be worth noting is
that these things tend to be obsolete in a matter of a few years like
a computer.

“While riding in a brand new RAV4 Electric during Ride 'n Drive
sessions at EVS14, Mark Amstock, Toyota's National Alternative Fuels
Project Manager, explained why his company is only leasing the all
electric sport utility vehicle to fleet operators. ‘This vehicle is
available on a three year lease. The reason we're doing this is
because in three years we believe this technology will be as obsolete
as a 286 computer is today.’”
Insurance: 

Companies like GM and Honda are trying to address the llack of
knowledge that insurance agents have about electric cars by providing
insurance when you buy the car.

“Owners like Rush, Nealon and Harris pay between $349 to $450 a month
for their lease. Honda is reported to be leasing their EV in
California for $450 a month. While this seems high for a small,
two-passenger car with a maximum range of just 80 miles, Rush and
others point out that GM's lease includes a total maintenance package
including batteries and tires, while Honda's lease is reputed to also
include collision and liability insurance, as well as bumper to bumper
maintenance.”
Electric Cars Are Coming... Not Just Yet
By Bill Moore
http://www.evworld.com/archives/electric-car.html 

Infrastructure:
“The manufacturer arguments were refuted at the meeting by many
including, some cities and utilities that wish to buy them for fleet
cars.  There are no "gas stations", i.e., infrastructure, for electric
cars.  No one can buy them anyway because there are not any. 
Manufacturers quit building them a couple of years ago anticipating
further relaxation of the ZEV regulation.  There was clear testimony
that the manufacturers way overstated the case against batteries,
vehicle total cost, and range of the vehicles, never properly marketed
the vehicles, and never attempted to design or help introduce
infrastructure to service the vehicles.”

CALIFORNIA'S ZERO-EMISSION VEHICLE PROGRAM - A WIN FOR CLEAN AIR
http://www.lwvsacramento.org/electric_cars.html 

The topic about the necessary infrastructure is discussed in length in
the next article.

"EV's Are Great. It's The Infrastructure That Needs Work"
By Mark Richards 
http://www.evworld.com/archives/oped/mrichards.html 

It is obvious that a discussion of non-technical issues about this
topic is limited even on the web. I hope that what I provided somewhat
supplements my answer. Thanks again for being a part of Google
Answers.

Request for Answer Clarification by todd123-ga on 06 Oct 2002 12:33 PDT
How do I re-rate your answer?  Great job.  I'm honestly impressed.

Clarification of Answer by easterangel-ga on 06 Oct 2002 12:53 PDT
Thanks for your praise. I have contacted Google Answers about this and
just waiting for their reply. Once I get it, I'll post it here.

Clarification of Answer by easterangel-ga on 07 Oct 2002 10:48 PDT
Google has informed me that at this time, they have no facility for
rating changes. Anyway, the praise is enough and really enjoyed
answering this question. Thanks.
todd123-ga rated this answer:3 out of 5 stars

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