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Q: US Dollar and Inflation ( No Answer,   5 Comments )
Question  
Subject: US Dollar and Inflation
Category: Business and Money > Economics
Asked by: sal930-ga
List Price: $10.00
Posted: 18 May 2006 19:46 PDT
Expires: 17 Jun 2006 19:46 PDT
Question ID: 730260
The following two quotes are from the Economist this week (p. 84). 
I'm trying to understand what they mean.  Please see my questions
below.

"How far and fast the dollar falls will depend in part on how
financial markets view Mr. Bernanke's concerns about inflation.  The
more sanguine they think the Fed is, the faster the likely slide."
-Are they trying to say that if Bernanke doesn't view inflation as a
threat, the dollar will continue to slide (b/c the US will stop
raising interest rates.  Hence, losing incoming money to support the
dollar?

"With its most recent statement, the Fed has given itself some room
for manoeuvre.  But the chances are that dollar bears and inflation
hawks will conspire to push interest rates up".
-How will dollar bears help push interest rates up?
Answer  
There is no answer at this time.

Comments  
Subject: Re: US Dollar and Inflation
From: frde-ga on 19 May 2006 08:53 PDT
 
I read the first statement as meaning that if the markets reckon that
Bernanke does not intend increasing interest rates to choke of
inflation, then they'll reckon that the dollar will fall.

The second assumes that interest rates will be increased to prevent a
fall in the dollar - through dollar bears selling dollars.

It is really about the two 'functions' of the interest rate 
1) Increasing/choking domestic demand  (controlling inflation)
2) Drawing in overseas deposits (controlling the exchange rate)
Subject: Re: US Dollar and Inflation
From: sal930-ga on 20 May 2006 17:42 PDT
 
Thank you for your response.

Interest affect the dollar, but can the dollar affect interest rates?

Thanks
Subject: Re: US Dollar and Inflation
From: frde-ga on 21 May 2006 00:38 PDT
 
Yes, a decline or increase in the Dollar exchange rate can affect interest rates

One mechanism is the following:

  People decide to sell dollars, they dump their US TBond holdings
  - this reduces the price of US TBonds (and associated Bonds)
  - the reduced price increases their Yield 
    - eg: they pay (or yield) a higher interest rate
  - the higher Bond interest rate trickles through the system

Since the US Government is the biggest single borrower, they can, to a
great extent 'control' interest rates - or more accurately 'influence'
them.

However they are not the only player in the game.
In fact, to maintain their influence over interest rates they have to
be seen as 'leading' the market
- as soon as the market reckons that the Fed is not leading, then they
reckon that they are on a one way bet.
Subject: Re: US Dollar and Inflation
From: sal930-ga on 21 May 2006 12:03 PDT
 
Thanks very much for your response.  It was very helpful.
Subject: Re: US Dollar and Inflation
From: frde-ga on 22 May 2006 01:39 PDT
 
Glad to help.

Today I was reading about US debt held by the Chinese

It is interesting to divide their holding by the price of a 747
- it puts things in perspective

Incidentally I've seen the USD fall dramatically a number of times,
I've a sneaky feeling that the Fed does it deliberately.

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