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Q: Market data for Modular/Factory built homes ( Answered,   0 Comments )
Question  
Subject: Market data for Modular/Factory built homes
Category: Business and Money
Asked by: wexwind-ga
List Price: $165.00
Posted: 25 May 2006 22:29 PDT
Expires: 24 Jun 2006 22:29 PDT
Question ID: 732492
What is the CURRENT market demand and outlook for high-end
modular/factory built (not manufactured, mobile, or panelized) homes
in California?  Western Region of US?  Are the current factories
sufficient to supply this market or is additional capacity/supply
required?  Are current factories running at capacity?  Any additional
market data, forecasts, statistics, or analysis on this market,
demand, supply, etc is appreciated.
Answer  
Subject: Re: Market data for Modular/Factory built homes
Answered By: belindalevez-ga on 29 May 2006 13:21 PDT
 
<Market data for factory-built homes.

This report give details of interviews with executives from 9 of the
top 10 factory-built housing manufacturers and 18 of the top 25. These
manufacturers represent 85% of the market. The interviews took place
in 2005.

The majority believe the market for factory-built housing will begin a
slow rebound in 2006. Growth rates of around five percent per year
were often cited. Three manufacturers expected moderate growth of 10%
per year. Manufacturers in the Western United States were more
optimistic about growth. The modular housing market offers the best
opportunity for growth and they were planning to develop aggressive
strategies to capitalise on the opportunity. Three companies are
pursuing the vacation and second home market.

The majority of executives said that there will be a movement towards
building larger upscale homes (1,800 to 2,400 square feet) in the next
five years to compete with the site built market.
To capitalise on this market many manufacturers will be expanding
their relationship with builders and developers. Although the
excitement in the industry is centred on upscale housing, the industry
core will be single and double-wide HUD-code homes for most regions.

Shipments of modular homes have been flat in 2005. This is a slow-down
in the recent trend of moderate annual growth in this market segment.
Modular shipments are expected to exceed 42,000 for 2005.

In 2005, 23 of the top 25 companies were producing modular homes. A
substantial number of manufacturers indicated that they will place
greater emphasis in the modular housing market in the next five years.

Some large companies have been acquiring smaller companies to expand
into new geographic regions or new market niches such as modular
homes. There have also been manufacturing plant closures or plants
left idle due to lack of demand.

The report also gives details of the top manufacturers with details of
the number of modular homes sold in 2004 and company financial
information.
Source: Propane Education & Research Council.
http://www.propanecouncil.org/files/MH_Manufacturer_Report.pdf


Modular home production
2004 ? 42,700 up 13%
2003 ? 37,800

Minnesota?s modular home production
2004 ? 1,347 up 23%
2003 ? 1,094
Source: Manufactured, Modular Housing Sales up.
http://realtytimes.com/rtapages/20050425_modularsalesrise.htm


According to Genesis homes, off-site built homes are in more demand
recently because of the high degree of sophisticated architecture and
design available to meet individual want and needs, delivery is very
fast and the home is more ruggedly constructed.
Country Living?s 2006 House of the Year to Debut on A&E.
http://www.genesishomes.com/our_press/releases1.asp?rid=23

According to NAHB, 6 percent of buyers purchase custom homes, despite
much higher demand.
http://remodeling.hw.net/industry-news.asp?sectionID=155&articleID=28108

2004 fourth quarter shipments for the top 10 states.
North Carolina 
1,339 (+3%)

New York
1,118 (+19%)

Michigan
846 (+18%)

Virginia
813 (+25%)

Pennsylvania
658 (-2%)

Wisconsin
524 (+3%)

Ohio
411 (Even)

New Jersey
334 (+6%)

South Carolina
341 (+10%)

Minnesota 
336 (+2%)

Source: The National Modular Housing Council.
http://www.modularcouncil.org/mc/pub_mod/default.asp?id=4&article=88

The National Modular Housing Council tracks modular shipments. To view
the data you need to be a member.
http://www.manufacturedhousing.org/mc/modular_statistics/default.asp


The Modular home production, as a percentage of factory built homes,
has increased over the past two years up from approximately 17% in
2002 to approximately 22% in 2003 and 24% in 2004. Year over year
Modular shipments increased almost 13% from the 2003 levels. 2005
production is anticipated to increase by 15%.

The Company's operations have available capacity to take on additional
business and increase market share in all of the regions which they
serve, as well as to expand into other geographic areas.
Source: Annual report. Patrick Industries Inc.
http://64.233.183.104/search?q=cache:yHUlSLVAEhQJ:biz.yahoo.com/e/050331/patk10-k.html+%22factory+built+homes%22+%22units+shipped%22&hl=nl&ct=clnk&cd=7


California county
In some ways, the high-end home sales are a reflection of what's going
on throughout Orange County. Nearly 6,700 homes sold here for $1
million or more in the past 11 months, compared with fewer than 500 in
1990.

But the high-end market is largely an economy onto itself, unrelated
to the vicissitudes of the larger local housing market. Since high-end
buyers come from all over the world, the Orange County job market, for
example, has no effect on prices for trophy homes.

And while the county's median home price tripled in the past 10 years,
the three top-priced homes were up four- to five-fold on average, due
in part to the scarcity of such waterfront properties, high-end
specialists said.

High-end specialists say there's no shortage of buyers for these homes
either. A couple of the homes that sold recently had multiple offers.

Source: California county hits new level of luxury. Jeff Collins. The
Orange County Register. January 15, 2006.
http://www.rutlandherald.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060115/NEWS/601150323/1011


In the Bay Area, 1 in 8 houses sold for $1 million or more.
"In the nine-county region, 16,981 houses and condos -- or 13.5
percent of total sales -- went for at least $1 million, up from
11,399, or 8.5 percent, in 2004. Only 2.6 percent of homes fetched as
much in 1999."

"Nowhere was the rise in high-end homes more pronounced than in Solano
County, typically one of the least-expensive sections of the Bay Area.
In that county, which includes Vacaville, Vallejo and Fairfield,
million-dollar home sales soared 154 percent in 2005. By comparison,
sales rose 43.3 percent in San Francisco."

"In the state, 48,666 homes sold for $1 million or more last year, up
47 percent from 33,107 in 2004."
Source: Chronicle.
http://mattlanning.com/blog/archives/2006_01_01_archive.html


The annual demand for new homes in California continues to be in the
240,000 range, but the home building industry is able to provide only
80 percent of the total need. Fewer high-end homes will be built in
the coastal regions of the state, while construction will rise in more
affordable areas, such as the San Joaquin Valley.
Source: The California Building Industry Association.
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/stories/2006/01/16/newscolumn1.html


Buyers in the Inland Empire area are migrating to high-end housing.
Demand for high-end housing is remaining strong.
Source: Inland Empire Quarterly Ecomomic Report. January 2006.
http://www.johnhusing.com/QER%20Jan%202006%20web.pdf>



<Search strategy:>

<"modular homes" "increase production">
<://www.google.com/search?hl=nl&rls=GGLG%2CGGLG%3A2006-12%2CGGLG%3Aen&q=%22modular+homes%22+%22increase+production%22+&lr=>

<"factory built homes" demand>
<://www.google.be/search?hl=nl&q=%22factory+built+homes%22+demand&meta=>

<"modular homes" demand>
<://www.google.be/search?hl=nl&q=%22modular+homes%22+demand&meta=>

<"high end modular homes" demand>
<://www.google.be/search?hl=nl&q=%22high+end+modular+homes%22+demand&meta=>

<"high end homes" demand california>
<://www.google.be/search?hl=nl&q=%22high+end+homes%22+demand+california&meta=>


<Hope this helps.>

Request for Answer Clarification by wexwind-ga on 30 May 2006 21:14 PDT
Hello Belinda.  I really appreciate your help, but the information you
provided on modular markets is outside of California which is what I
specifically asked for.  The end of your answer has some general real
estate market stats for California, but again, this does not answer my
questions.  Also, much of the information was stats for non-CA states
and was not current or forward looking.  2004 with 2005 projections is
not current nor forward looking.  Again, I'm looking for current and
future demand and supply projections for modular (not manufactured)
homes in CA and Western states.  Thanks again!

Clarification of Answer by belindalevez-ga on 02 Jun 2006 11:00 PDT
I have found a possible source for the California stats. I have
emailed the source and am waiting for a reply.

Clarification of Answer by belindalevez-ga on 06 Jun 2006 04:41 PDT
<I have had a reply to my email as follows:
As described below, I have current modular home statistical information for
48 states at a charge of $175 per state.
Fred Hallahan
2005 MODULAR HOUSING CONSUMPTION CONTINUES RECORD HIGH LEVEL
MODULAR MANUFACTURER COMPETITION INFORMATION BY STATE


To assist you in remaining competitive in today's challenging modular home
markets, we have completed our annual modular housing review for 2005 and
have information available on state-by-state modular housing activity broken
down to individual manufacturers.  Key modular observations are as follows:



        2005 national modular housing activity continues to remain at a
record high level of about 43,000 homes.



       Numerous states had significant 2005 modular housing growth ranging
from 10% to 50%.



       In most active modular housing states, competition among
manufacturers is intensive and market leadership positions are shifting
considerably among established manufacturers.



The attached "YOUR STATE" example indicates our graphic format for
presenting individual state modular information from 1999 through 2005 on
consumption trends, market share and consumption for major manufacturers,
and pertinent observations on modular market performance.  Individual state
information also includes a detailed listing of 2004 and 2005 modular home
consumption and 2005 market share for all manufacturers shipping into a
given state.



We believe that the above referenced information will be of value to you as
a modular housing manufacturer by providing you with an increased
understanding of the current market dynamics in states that are important to
you.



You may order this updated state modular information directly by indicating
your states of interest below and returning this document to us with your
check payable to:



  HALLAHAN ASSOCIATES

 502 Baltimore Avenue       Baltimore, MD    21204

 Tel:   410 - 296  - 1199       Fax:  410 - 296  - 2733


States (or State Groups) Available: New England-North (VT,NH,ME), New
England-South (MA,CT,RI), NJ, NY, PA, DE & MD, VA, WV, NC, SC, GA, FL, IL,
IN, MI, OH, WI, MN, IA, NE, ND, SD, MO, KY, TN, MS, AL, AR, LA, KS, OK, TX,
NM, CO, WY, MT, ID, UT, AZ, NV, WA, OR, CA.



Enclosed is our $_______ check for ___ states modular information at $175.00
per state or state group for up to 15 total ordered, $160 per for 16-20
ordered, or $140 per for over 20 ordered.>

<Hope this helps.>
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