Hello kunalshah84-ga,
Thank you for your clarification. I?m very sorry if you expected an
immediate reply and were disappointed not to receive one. Since you?re
a new user, you may not have realized this service, not having a real
time interface, doesn?t usually work quite like that. Rather, although
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bit of a time lag for communications between users and Researchers.
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All right then, on to the information you need in order to make your
decision about whether or not to attend this upcoming six-week course.
----------------
HISTORICAL DATA
----------------
You might start with The Central Florida Heritage Foundation, which
has compiled a detailed history of hurricanes and tropical storms in
Orlando over the past 150 years. You will likely be interested to know
that, despite Orlando?s location in the center of Florida, which is
the largest target for Atlantic hurricanes, in that time period
Orlando has been impacted by only 59 storms. Of that total none has
been a Category 4 or 5 hurricane and, in fact, the city has not been
hit by larger than a Category 2 since 1960! Amazing, isn?t it? You can
read the complete details on this very well organized page, here:
http://www.cfhf.net/orlando/hurricane.htm
And then FEMA has a complete list of declared disasters caused by
weather ( http://www.fema.gov/news/disasters_state.fema?id=12 ) in
Florida, going back to 1953. FEMA has maps showing areas affected for
the more recent events. I?ve used another source for the earlier ones.
The FEMA list includes only seven severe weather events that occurred
during the time period you?re asking about, NONE OF WHICH APPEAR TO
HAVE AFFECTED ORLANDO. These include:
1970 07/03 Heavy rains, flooding ? no further information available:
http://www.fema.gov/news/event.fema?id=1490
1972 06/23 Tropical Storm Agnes ? Florida panhandle and northern counties:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Agnes
1982 07/07 Severe storms, flooding ? probably caused by subtropical storm 1:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Atlantic_hurricane_season
1994 07/10 Severe storms, flooding, Tropical Storm Alberto ? Florida panhandle:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Alberto_(1994)
2001 06/17 Tropical Storm Allison ? Florida panhandle:
http://www.fema.gov/news/event.fema?id=117
2003 07/29 Severe storms, flooding ? Gulf coast counties:
http://www.fema.gov/news/event.fema?id=1164
2005 07/10 Hurricane Dennis ? Florida panhandle:
http://aroundcentralflorida.com/weather/hurricanes/
------------------------
OUTLOOK FOR 2006 SEASON
------------------------
As to the outlook for the 2006 hurricane season, hurricane forecasts
are issued by a number of different sources. Two of the most important
and authoritative are the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and The
Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University. Their
forecasts for the upcoming season differ slightly.
The NHC is calling for a very active season. However, they also state
that ?The vast majority of named storms and hurricanes are expected to
form during August-October over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which is
typical for above-normal seasons.?
In addition they state that, ?Although we expect a very active
hurricane season during 2006, we are not forecasting a repeat of last
year?s record season at this time. This is partly because the tropical
Atlantic SSTs are not presently as warm as we saw last year at this
time.?
You can read the entire season forecast here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml
Other supplemental resources from the NHC are here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
The COLORADO STATE forecast for the current season is a bit more
technical and doesn?t mention a lesser degree of warming like the NHC
forecast, nor do they say clearly which months are expected to be most
active. Their prediction states, ?For the Gulf Coast, landfall
probabilities are above the climatological average; however, they are
not as high as those for the East Coast. Steering current parameters
for the Gulf Coast are mixed, with one of the predictors being
slightly positive and the other predictor being moderately negative.
However, it is to be noted that Gulf Coast landfall probabilities are
still above average ... and therefore, coastal residents should
prepare for a 38% probability of a landfalling major hurricane along
the Gulf Coast.?
The main page for the Tropical Meteorology Project is here:
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/
And the forecasts for the current hurricane season are here:
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2006/june2006/
ORLANDO SPECIFIC PROBABILITY FORECAST:
Of course, the trouble with the above predictions is that they don?t
say exactly where landfall might be expected, nor do they mention
Orlando or Central Florida. But in addition to those two sources, the
University of Central Florida (UCF) in conjunction with the Kinetic
Analysis Corporation of Savannah, GA has published a 2006 Hurricane
Probability Analysis which gives probabilities of various Florida
cities experiencing hurricane force winds. The average probability
given for Orlando is only 8.53%, with this year?s probability below
average at 6.68%. You can see the figures and chart here:
http://news.ucf.edu/UCFnews/index?page=article&id=00240041070ca5e3e010b382c8adf007bdf
--------------------------------------
ORLANDO WEATHER FORECAST ? LONG RANGE
--------------------------------------
As you may know, it?s one thing to try to predict general trends, but
most weather forecasters won?t attempt to forecast daily weather too
far ahead. There are just too many variables that can affect the daily
weather, making it virtually impossible to know in advance exactly
what the weather will be like on any given day in the future. The
longest range forecasts are usually for no more than a week, sometimes
ten days.
The Weather Channel does give a 10-day forecast, which might be of
some help to you. Here?s the link:
http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/USFL0372?par=OAP&site=GENXV&code=null
In addition to that, it might be of some help to look back at prior
years to see if there?s a pattern to the weather for this time period.
For instance, data for July 2005 for Orlando, including temperature,
wind, precipitation and cloud cover, among other data, shows the daily
high temperatures were mostly in the 90s, lows at night in the 70s,
with at least a little rain on about half the days in the month.
Here?s the link:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/climat/MCOjul05.txt
If you?d like to check the historical data for other months, you can
select them here:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/climatology.html#LCDs
If you need help deciphering the abbreviations/headings, you can get it here:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/F6info.html#WX
From what I can see, if I were planning this trip, I?d plan for hot
days, warm nights, allow for the possibility of a little cool weather
just in case, and definitely add an umbrella and some rain gear.
---------------------
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
---------------------
Finally, I?ve compiled a list of helpful resources for you, from which
you can find pertinent information both now and during your stay in
Orlando, should you decide to go. They range from sources to help you
keep abreast of current and changing weather conditions in the area,
to advice and suggestions on dealing with any severe weather the area
may experience. Pay attention to not only Orlando, but also Orange
County and surrounding counties.
MAPS of CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES
http://www.florida-business-data.com/maps/counties-central.htm#Maps
http://www.floridacountiesmap.com/central.shtml
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE CENTER
http://flhurricane.com/
THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER CENTER
http://www.atwc.org/
THE ORLANDO SENTINEL HURRICANE GUIDE
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/weather/hurricaneguide/
AROUND CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AWARENESS PAGE
http://aroundcentralflorida.com/weather/hurricanes/
*******************************************************************************
I hope this information will prove helpful to you in coming to a
decision about whether or not to attend the six-week course you?re
interested in. As I said above, for myself, both the historical and
outlook figures seem to indicate a fairly low likelihood of severe
weather, in particular hurricane force winds for the Orlando area for
the time period you?re concerned about. But also, only you, after
reading over the data given, can make that decision for yourself.
If anything isn?t clear, please ask via the ?Request for
Clarification? feature before rating and closing your question. I want
to be sure you have the information you need to make an informed
decision and will be glad to work with you further if needed. Also,
despite care taken, sometimes links don?t post properly, so if you
have trouble with any of them, let me know that as well and I can try
to repost any problem links.
Best of luck to you, both in making your decision, and in your
upcoming course should you decide to attend.
Regards,
Byrd-ga
Search strategy:
I used the following search terms to locate initial information, and
then followed links from within the results obtained to find the more
detailed data:
[hurricane forecast 2006 orlando OR ?central florida?]
[2006 hurricane Orlando forecast OR outlook OR probability]
[hurricanes orlando]
[orlando hurricane history OR historical]
In addition, I made use of my own collection of bookmarks for
meteorological sites, such as the NHC, weather.com, the Tropical
Meteorology Project and the Atlantic Tropical Weather Center. |
