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Q: Hurricane in Orlando? ( Answered 5 out of 5 stars,   1 Comment )
Subject: Hurricane in Orlando?
Category: Miscellaneous
Asked by: kunalshah84-ga
List Price: $30.00
Posted: 12 Jun 2006 15:52 PDT
Expires: 12 Jul 2006 15:52 PDT
Question ID: 737604
I want to know if Orlando area will be affected by hurricanes from
June 20th to July 31st. I am thinking of going in the zip code 32380
for a film course but I dont know if its safe. The other option is
Harvard but the locations in Orlando seem to be more varied and
appealing. With the Hurricane Alberto and warnings in Florida, I want
to know if there is going to be any crazy winds, rains because
obviously I dont want to die in a hurricane. The academy that offers
this program says that it should be fine but I am not too sure. I
would like to have a fun summer and not one where I have to worry about
rain, wind, safety and survival for 6weeks. I am wondering if I am
sweating too much and that this area is not going to be affected OR I
should stay away from Orlando this summer for the film course. I have
to take this decision in a day or two so a quick response is required.

Clarification of Question by kunalshah84-ga on 12 Jun 2006 16:01 PDT
I have been reading these articles about evacuation and the hurricane
hitting the Gulf Coast. I am wondering if it affects Orlando and the
entire state of Florida or is it just the gulf coast that gets
affected. Because if its just the gulf coast, then I can go but if it
slowly moves towards Orlando then obviously I would not want to go.

Request for Question Clarification by byrd-ga on 12 Jun 2006 19:42 PDT
Hi kunalshah84-ga, 

I?m sure you know that nobody can tell you with complete certainty
whether or not Orlando will experience a hurricane or any other severe
weather during the dates you mention. What we can do, however, is help
you figure out, based on information available, what the likelihood is
that there will or won?t be any worrisome weather there during your
attendance at this academy, in order to assist you in deciding whether
or not to attend. And there is actually quite a bit of information to
be had. For instance, there are several sources which claim that ?peak
time for storms is between late July and late-Septembe,? which means
the time you plan to be in Orlando is at less risk for hurricanes than
either earlier or later in the season.

In addition, what I can offer you includes:

- A detailed history of hurricanes and tropical storms in Orlando over
the past 150 year, showing that it has been spared the worst effect of
the storms which have decimated other areas of the state.
- Florida disaster history from FEMA
- General Atlantic hurricane forecasts for the 2006 season from the
two primary forecast centers in the U.S.
- Percentage probability of hurricanes for Orlando for the 2006 season
(less than average)
- Central Florida Hurricane Center links collection for the major
sources of information on hurricanes for the region and the nation.
- Central Florida analysis of current season predictions. 
- Orange County, FL (Orlando) Office of Emergency Management information

If this information (plus some additional resources) would be
satisfactory to you as an answer to your question, please let me know
and I?ll be happy to post it in the ?Answer? box and claim the fee. If
not, I?ll be glad to leave the question open to any other Researcher
who is able to offer more specific information. Please be aware you
can post a Clarification while the question is locked. Oh ? and for
what it may be worth, from what I?ve seen, I wouldn?t be worried about
undertaking a course of study in Orlando during the dates you?ve
specified, although, of course, only you can make that decision for

Looking forward to your clarification,

Clarification of Question by kunalshah84-ga on 12 Jun 2006 20:07 PDT
Hi Byrd-ga
I think the information that you mentioned should definitely be
satisfactory as an answer to my question and I would be making a
decision based on a lot of relevant information. You did mention that
you would not be worried if it were you, I was also wondering, would
the weather there be sunny/hot or more like windy/rainy for these
6weeks, if you were to guess based on information available out there?

Thanks for working on it promptly,

Clarification of Question by kunalshah84-ga on 12 Jun 2006 23:59 PDT
Hi I was wondering if you are still answering the question. I dont
know if I hit some button and the question is "locked" or something
but I hope to read the answer soon. Thanks.
Subject: Re: Hurricane in Orlando?
Answered By: byrd-ga on 13 Jun 2006 07:56 PDT
Rated:5 out of 5 stars
Hello kunalshah84-ga, 

Thank you for your clarification. I?m very sorry if you expected an
immediate reply and were disappointed not to receive one. Since you?re
a new user, you may not have realized this service, not having a real
time interface, doesn?t usually work quite like that. Rather, although
most questions are answered fairly promptly, there?s still usually a
bit of a time lag for communications between users and Researchers.
And no, you didn?t hit a button to lock your question; I did.
Researchers who intend to answer a question can lock it so that only
one Researcher at a time is working on any given question. You can
read a bit more about how the service works here:

All right then, on to the information you need in order to make your
decision about whether or not to attend this upcoming six-week course.


You might start with The Central Florida Heritage Foundation, which
has compiled a detailed history of hurricanes and tropical storms in
Orlando over the past 150 years. You will likely be interested to know
that, despite Orlando?s location in the center of Florida, which is
the largest target for Atlantic hurricanes, in that time period
Orlando has been impacted by only 59 storms. Of that total none has
been a Category 4 or 5 hurricane and, in fact, the city has not been
hit by larger than a Category 2 since 1960! Amazing, isn?t it? You can
read the complete details on this very well organized page, here: 

And then FEMA has a complete list of declared disasters caused by
weather ( ) in
Florida, going back to 1953. FEMA has maps showing areas affected for
the more recent events. I?ve used another source for the earlier ones.
The FEMA list includes only seven severe weather events that occurred
during the time period you?re asking about, NONE OF WHICH APPEAR TO

1970 07/03 Heavy rains, flooding ? no further information available: 

1972 06/23 Tropical Storm Agnes ? Florida panhandle and northern counties: 

1982 07/07 Severe storms, flooding ? probably caused by subtropical storm 1: 

1994 07/10 Severe storms, flooding, Tropical Storm Alberto ? Florida panhandle: 

2001 06/17 Tropical Storm Allison ? Florida panhandle: 

2003 07/29 Severe storms, flooding ? Gulf coast counties: 

2005 07/10 Hurricane Dennis ? Florida panhandle:


As to the outlook for the 2006 hurricane season, hurricane forecasts
are issued by a number of different sources. Two of the most important
and authoritative are the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and The
Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University. Their
forecasts for the upcoming season differ slightly.

The NHC is calling for a very active season. However, they also state
that ?The vast majority of named storms and hurricanes are expected to
form during August-October over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which is
typical for above-normal seasons.?

In addition they state that, ?Although we expect a very active
hurricane season during 2006, we are not forecasting a repeat of last
year?s record season at this time. This is partly because the tropical
Atlantic SSTs are not presently as warm as we saw last year at this

You can read the entire season forecast here: 

Other supplemental resources from the NHC are here: 

The COLORADO STATE forecast for the current season is a bit more
technical and doesn?t mention a lesser degree of warming like the NHC
forecast, nor do they say clearly which months are expected to be most
active. Their prediction states, ?For the Gulf Coast, landfall
probabilities are above the climatological average; however, they are
not as high as those for the East Coast. Steering current parameters
for the Gulf Coast are mixed, with one of the predictors being
slightly positive and the other predictor being moderately negative.
However, it is to be noted that Gulf Coast landfall probabilities are
still above average ... and therefore, coastal residents should
prepare for a 38% probability of a landfalling major hurricane along
the Gulf Coast.?

The main page for the Tropical Meteorology Project is here: 

And the forecasts for the current hurricane season are here: 


Of course, the trouble with the above predictions is that they don?t
say exactly where landfall might be expected, nor do they mention
Orlando or Central Florida. But in addition to those two sources, the
University of Central Florida (UCF) in conjunction with the Kinetic
Analysis Corporation of Savannah, GA has published a 2006 Hurricane
Probability Analysis which gives probabilities of various Florida
cities experiencing hurricane force winds. The average probability
given for Orlando is only 8.53%, with this year?s probability below
average at 6.68%. You can see the figures and chart here:


As you may know, it?s one thing to try to predict general trends, but
most weather forecasters won?t attempt to forecast daily weather too
far ahead. There are just too many variables that can affect the daily
weather, making it virtually impossible to know in advance exactly
what the weather will be like on any given day in the future. The
longest range forecasts are usually for no more than a week, sometimes
ten days.

The Weather Channel does give a 10-day forecast, which might be of
some help to you. Here?s the link: 

In addition to that, it might be of some help to look back at prior
years to see if there?s a pattern to the weather for this time period.
For instance, data for July 2005 for Orlando, including temperature,
wind, precipitation and cloud cover, among other data, shows the daily
high temperatures were mostly in the 90s, lows at night in the 70s,
with at least a little rain on about half the days in the month.
Here?s the link: 

If you?d like to check the historical data for other months, you can
select them here: 

If you need help deciphering the abbreviations/headings, you can get it here:

From what I can see, if I were planning this trip, I?d plan for hot
days, warm nights, allow for the possibility of a little cool weather
just in case, and definitely add an umbrella and some rain gear.


Finally, I?ve compiled a list of helpful resources for you, from which
you can find pertinent information both now and during your stay in
Orlando, should you decide to go. They range from sources to help you
keep abreast of current and changing weather conditions in the area,
to advice and suggestions on dealing with any severe weather the area
may experience. Pay attention to not only Orlando, but also Orange
County and surrounding counties.







I hope this information will prove helpful to you in coming to a
decision about whether or not to attend the six-week course you?re
interested in. As I said above, for myself, both the historical and
outlook figures seem to indicate a fairly low likelihood of severe
weather, in particular hurricane force winds for the Orlando area for
the time period you?re concerned about. But also, only you, after
reading over the data given, can make that decision for yourself.

If anything isn?t clear, please ask via the ?Request for
Clarification? feature before rating and closing your question. I want
to be sure you have the information you need to make an informed
decision and will be glad to work with you further if needed. Also,
despite care taken, sometimes links don?t post properly, so if you
have trouble with any of them, let me know that as well and I can try
to repost any problem links.

Best of luck to you, both in making your decision, and in your
upcoming course should you decide to attend.


Search strategy:

I used the following search terms to locate initial information, and
then followed links from within the results obtained to find the more
detailed data:

[hurricane forecast 2006 orlando OR ?central florida?]
[2006 hurricane Orlando forecast OR outlook OR probability]
[hurricanes orlando]
[orlando hurricane history OR historical]

In addition, I made use of my own collection of bookmarks for
meteorological sites, such as the NHC,, the Tropical
Meteorology Project and the Atlantic Tropical Weather Center.
kunalshah84-ga rated this answer:5 out of 5 stars and gave an additional tip of: $10.00
Thanks a lot for the information. It answered my question and I learnt
a lot more along the way. Good job!

Subject: Re: Hurricane in Orlando?
From: byrd-ga on 13 Jun 2006 11:59 PDT
Dear kunalshah84-ga, 

You're welcome! I'm so glad you were pleased. And thank YOU very much
for the kind words, five stars and generous tip!

Best wishes,

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