Is there any research which shows the link between the quality or type
of decisions which are made in an organisation and the profitability
or results of those decisions?

There are at least dozens and arguably hundreds of variables behind
every outcome of every business decision.  The nature of business is
such that the variables cannot generally be replicated.  Think of
ever-changing competitive situations, a fluctuating economy, advances
in technology, and the way people in an organization affect the
outcome of every decision.  Although it can't be statistically mapped
as you are requesting, examining hundreds of case studies would
certainly be useful.  This is the essence of the curriculum of the
Harvard Business School.

It may be easier to find research that describes decisions that
resulted in less than the expected results.

A Harvard BS professor used to tell the story about the planning for a
large industrial project in remote NW Australia.  When it was
completed on time and to budget  - to everyone's surprise -  the
planners were asked how they managed to plan so correctly.  They
admitted that they did all the estimates based on experience with
similar project, then doubled the time and cost to cover the
imponderables of the remote location.